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| Subject: Some pricing analysis--10/11/02 11/11 12/11 19/11 | |
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Author: anonymous |
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Date Posted: 22:21:35 11/19/02 Tue ggecko1 (ID#: 413570) ERG holding well today 11/11/02 2:04:09 PM 5697869 « Previous Message Next Message » with market down 29 points and CBA decimated, ERG it seems is holding at the 16.5-17 cent range is this because maybe that all the bad news is factored in, or that it simply is a a rockbottom? ERG ASX 0.165 0.165 0.170 165,685 -0.005 -2.941% 1,002,330 0.165 0.170 0.160 14:04:18 Buy | Sell There was also a divergence between 16 and 17c---for a short while 5000 came into sell at 16.5---that was then bought---currently it is back in the 16.5--to 17 range. ERG Description: ERG LIMITED ORDINARY Time of last trade: 12/11/2002 - 15:11:44 Last Change In Value Change In Percent 0.1650 -0.0050 -2.9412% High Low Opened Closed Trades Volume Traded All Ordinaries 0.1700 0.1600 0.1650 0.1700 88 1,169,096 15:11:44 2,941.8000 0.1498% Buyers Sellers Quantity Units Price Price Units Quantity 72 1,654,980 0.1600 1 0.1650 47,651 1 31 1,319,295 0.1550 2 0.1700 882,234 19 49 1,661,093 0.1500 3 0.1750 1,844,161 38 10 861,500 0.1450 4 0.1800 1,373,600 38 16 586,360 0.1400 5 0.1850 952,073 23 5 150,750 0.1350 6 0.1900 1,037,720 32 7 216,140 0.1300 7 0.1950 1,518,966 35 4 186,000 0.1250 8 0.2000 1,357,214 48 3 83,217 0.1200 9 0.2050 387,500 10 1 45,300 0.1100 10 0.2100 181,596 5 -------------------------------------------- The entity ERG---T 12/11. to the 15/11. ------------------------------------------- Have to be on share register to be entitled to vote at the AGM on the 28/11 at 2pm Perth time---by no later than the 26/11. ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------ The low for ERG stock was the 19/11/2002 where it traded at 15c the present share price---dated the the.... ------------------------------------------------------------ As I write this forward of time---what is happening in market depth? ------------------------------------------------------------ The shorters are agreeing on a short term value for the company's stock---they are bartering between them to determine the worth of the company---once they have agreed to a mutually acceptable price---which I think will be the 15c above---for the reasons explained below---volume weighted average price and last price will if not today over a few days begin to match---then when this process occurs which for those familiar with technical analysis I would call a squat bar (where the bulls and bears fight it out) a break to the upside or downside is possible---on fundamentals I value higher---so this to me as has been proven mean't to the upside. ------------------------------------------------------------ If I could add anything else from this point as I write and the time is by my clock 12.07pm Eastern Standard Time the entities volume average weighted price (and I'm a little delayed on that score and don't know the up to minute situation till days end) is 15.46---essentially this could either round up to 15.5---or down to 15---before then rising---in other words I imagine there is plenty of drama on the BB at this point to create distraction. This would be an estimation of BB behaviour---people might be saying things like ERG is going to go bankrupt---giving the illusion that an investment has greater risk attached to it than what really is the case---equating the stockmarket to gambling and rolling dice---etc---all sorts of manipulative behaviour. What is another further point I can think of? This would be purely share price driven---well in that belief the fundamentals equal the share analysis don't they? When watching match out at opening and closing times on the ASX---in the days leading up to this dramatic BB event----the buy and sell bid showed both the 15 and 17 figure---so this too was an indicator pointing to the validity of the above thesis. Just a postscript, I keep on thinking of further things to add you also have to be on the shareregister to be entitled to vote on the 28/11 at 2pm (Perth Time) the significance of this is---I wonder if the crossing that may occur allued to by the below---it may appear on the register before the 26th? Time will tell I guess---if so---this would then give support to the stock at that level in analysis. ------------------------------------------------------------ I could make an off topic personal comment----these BB delusional traders I kind of feel use me as some sort of sounding block in the analysis of prices----I don't intend to give them the satisfaction of doing that this time---it is quite injurious to the person concerned (namely me) and reeks of the utmost insincerity displayed by some towards others, the end result ofcourse is to get good pricing analysis by picking on someone and placing them under a great deal of stress---not a good state of Denmark---the world itself?, full of noise and haste sham and drudgery go placidly amongst it. ------------------------------------------------------------ Incidentally did another person non manipulatively and honestly concur with the above analysis? Yes 1 did stating that the trading range was 15 to 17c----others also expressed a view that 15c may be a bottom---I couldn't see the need for all the drama though---why not just a simple post as another did?, any way that was much appreciated. Yet another point I might further add there was some analysis on the thread with a bit of a hint there of what may occur at the AGM---nothing definite was stated---the wording construed to my mind was in the tone of a positive in nature, at least I didn't interperet in the negative---how would I say fairly ambivalent. ------------------------------------------------------------ The tone as stated though mildly positive. ------------------------------------------------------------ When the Ecard announcement was made, the market interpreted that news in accordance with my view---for the share priced ticked up to 16.5--those details showing the correlation between the announcement and the Ecard transaction were deleted off the BB. ------------------------------------------------------------ I suppose without wishing to speak on anyone elses behalf, maybe others either alone or working in tandem, did not want that analysis posted. ------------------------------------------------------------ Further, being a Guru---you see all types of human behaviour fear and greed syndromes diplayed on BB's by the various participants, one does have to make allowances ofcourse for the darker side of human nature and ofcourse if you do that---you also on occasions see the good, perhaps even the better side of me would like to believe overall that people lend towards the benelovent rather than the deleterious pusuit of activity on BB's. ------------------------------------------------------------ http://www.stockhouse.com.au/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=5703713 ------------------------------------------------------------ http://www.stockhouse.com.au/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=5700345 ------------------------------------------------------------ At the lowest point of 15.5--this would work out to be 41,486,967 times 40c---equalling 16,594,78680 if ERG has paid them already and the entity has overshot it's budget--ie one of two things happened on October 1st---either ERG paid the noteholders the interest payment---or the noteholders agreed at some date--either then or by October the 15th to become shareholders. ----------------------------------------------------------- All up the noteholders have to get back 22.8 mill---so to subtract 16,594,7860 from 22.8 leaves 6.2 mill rounded---therefore if they are now shareholders and they intended to sell (I don't think they will--as Motorola for one is not in financial difficulty anymore--and the other two are alliance partners and have a long term vision)---if they did though--the equation works out at a minimum price of 14.944452314---15c rounded---with the share price having recently been 15.5---not many went through at 15.5---unless it was an off market transaction (ie a crossing) and it is not recorded till later. ------------------------------------------------------------ Off topic. ------------------------------------------------------------ http://wavcentral.com/sounds/movies/braveheart/wallace_speech.wav ------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------ I might just add a postscrip for one further development has occured on the BB dated 19/11---since the above was compiled, ealier in the day I had made the statement that I felt the various reasons why ERG would do well through time---would be because the very things that had made it go down in share price, would be in the end the very things that would in estimation make it rise---another poster at the 15c point has indeed posted some analysis giving detail of the entity in point fashion---citing some of those very same bullish reasons another poster has posted details of a best and worst CEO article (with Peter Foarty's name appearing at that will appear in the Bulletin tomorrow which makes it the 20/11/2002----this would have to be surely the last of the dirty laundry. ------------------------------------------------------------ Slaughtered. ------------------------------------------------------------ 104 5:50:44 pm 15.5 515,642 0.5 $79,925 1 ------------------------------------------------------------ [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] |
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| Re: Some pricing analysis--10/11/02 11/11 12/11 19/11 20/11/21/11 | anonymous | 00:36:10 11/21/02 Thu |
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