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| Sunday, May 17, 09:18:26pm | [ Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, [7], 8, 9, 10 ] |
| Subject: Brace for the rocky resultsOne stockbroker said most of the recent high volume trading has been at the retail end, describing the trade as "speculative". The theory would certainly explain the enthusiasm for other underperforming tech stocks like Kaz and ERG which also jumped 10 per cent in the past two days. | |
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Author: July 11 2003 |
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Date Posted: Thursday, July 10, 12:49:46pm http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/07/10/1057783291081.html Brace for the rocky results July 11 2003 Health risk . . . investors will be checking the temperature of companies exposed to the financial effects of the SARS virus. Photo: Getty Images Imponderables, from drought to disease, make it hard to judge who can emerge unscathed, Jan Eakin writes. If Smith Barney estimates are anything to go by, investors should be bracing for another rocky results season. In a preview published yesterday, the investment bank has applied various methods to work out which companies with a June 30 year-end will please the market and which won't. As well as using those complicated financial tools, Smith Barney has looked at which stocks will be hit by more macro issues. For instance, full-year earnings for Wesfarmers, Patrick and Orica will be hit by the drought, CSL will feel the impact of pricing pressure, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) should affect the earnings of Cochlear, Qantas and PBL, while the strength of the dollar will hurt resources companies, as well as CSL, Lend Lease, News Corp, Southcorp and Brambles. Of course macro issues can also prove a positive. The dollar's strength, for example, should help Qantas, Coles Myer and Newcrest Mining, while low interest rates will boost a host of highly geared stocks. On the more technical front, the use of last year's actual figures and this year's estimates has thrown up a number of stocks which the broker thinks investors should keep a close eye on. They include Amcor, WMC Resources, Coca-Cola Amatil and Origin Energy. advertisement advertisement Stocks that should enjoy some upside include Telstra, Santos, Computershare, Adelaide Brighton and PMP. Tabcorp vapours Victorian punters who enjoy a ciggie and a bit of sunshine appear to be migrating north to the bright lights of BrisVegas. With Queenslanders still allowed to smoke while playing the pokies, gaming machine revenue has skyrocketed during the past 12 months. Revenue from pubs and clubs in Brisbane increased 17 per cent, while on the Gold Coast it increased 12 per cent. Improvements to pubs and clubs, flexible gaming regulations and new gaming machines also helped revenue. Meanwhile, in Victoria, where smoking is barred in gaming rooms, revenue is estimated to have fallen 15 per cent. While it did pick up slightly during May and June, Deutsche Bank said this was a typical seasonal uplift. The broker has no plans to revise its forecasts for Tabcorp, but it warned the share price had factored in little risk from the integration of Jupiters, the perpetual threat of negative regulatory changes and the timing of a recovery in Victorian gaming machine revenues. Tabcorp fell 4c to $10.73. Perpetual motion The lads at Perpetual Trustees are clearly subscribers to the axiom that less is more. Yesterday the fundie announced it will release to the ASX quarterly, instead of monthly, information on its level of funds under management. In reality, those hungry for this information will not go without, because it will be posted on the group's website. And the numbers yesterday showed that after the mandate losses associated with the exit of head of equities Peter Morgan last year, things seems to have stabilised. In the June quarter, funds under management grew by about 5.45 per cent to $17.4 billion, compared to a 4.87 per cent rise in the S&P/ASX 200 over the same period. That was enough to fire up investors ahead of the company's August 6 full-year results and the shares rocketed 78c to $30.98. The company has flagged it will beat last year's $62 million net profit before abnormals, but by how much is the big question. The mean market net profit estimate is $67 million. LookSmart fancied A 30 per cent rise in LookSmart's share price this week got some justification yesterday when the search engine firm unveiled a multi-year search results agreement with Lycos. The stock closed up 2.5c at 26.5c yesterday on turnover of more than 32 million shares - not far off the year-high of 29c. But the announcement offered no financial details to support the market's enthusiasm, and it didn't address analyst concerns about poor visibility on the cost. Higher than expected costs led to a profit downgrade this May, ending a strong run by the stock which had tripled in value in the lead-up to LookSmart's first profit announcement earlier this year. But the trade may have more to do with Wednesday's high-premium $110 million bid for Securenet and other recent tech stock activity, according to the market pundits. One stockbroker said most of the recent high volume trading has been at the retail end, describing the trade as "speculative". The theory would certainly explain the enthusiasm for other underperforming tech stocks like Kaz and ERG which also jumped 10 per cent in the past two days. Property carousel While there has been a sell-off in the listed property trust sector since July 1, the fun isn't entirely over. The more savvy investor has started to switch around and the launch of the Australand Wholesale Property Trust No.4, underwritten by JB Were, has seen a number of players take up units using the profits made in other listed vehicles. The switch has been primarily out of some underperforming office trusts, as well as profit taking generated by the recent consolidation. Deutsche Bank's property team says there is evidence that investors have skimmed the cream off their holding in CFS Gandel Retail Trust and moved it into the Westfield behemoth. Both stocks have had a very good run, but Westfield has been re-rated due to its successful takeover of AMP Shopping Centre Trust. Other moves recommended by the broker are a switch from Mirvac into Stockland as a result of the latter's successful bid for AMP Diversified Trust and out of AMP Industrial Trust to ING Industrial Trust. [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] |
| Subject | Author | Date |
| Whatever the shareprice is on 12/9/03--at whatever price it is trading at--I assure you (as Kaz has demonstrated from 12.5c) (NT) | ERG will need to be covered. | Friday, August 22, 11:16:58am |