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stochastic on the S&P500 on the extreme short is oversold as at 26/6/03 U.S. time 27/6/03 Oz time.---
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Date Posted: 26/07/03 9:11:57am
In reply to:
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/cctimes/6372664.htm
's message, "Posted on Thu, Jul. 24, 2003 Translink--San Francisco" on 25/07/03 3:13:11am
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2003 5:47 am Post subject: ERG S&P500 863 plus 110 Stochatic bullish oversold EMA
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Date Posted: 02:24:44 07/03/03 Thu
In reply to: but with ERG it is almost herdally psychotic--even some of the shorters elswhere I'm sure agree with me. 's message, "Where BB's get ridiculous is when they become totally out of whack with the company announcement section" on 02:09:59 07/03/03 Thu
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bonkers
Joined: 14 Jun 2003
Posts: 57
Location: Sydney southern suburbs
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2003 5:47 am Post subject: ERG S&P500 863 plus 110 Stochatic bullish oversold EMA
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Hi Wonder---BK here--also the stochastic on the S&P500 on the extreme short is oversold as at 26/6/03 U.S. time 27/6/03 Oz time.---BK. (they will most likely be telling people in the U.S. to sell Motorola now on BB's rather than buy it.) All I do is say this is it's Gann or fibbonacci retracement, here are some other details on the company, fundamentals so forth--it is put there for both seller and buyer.
Never mind great concept--pity about the BB. Yes that is right BK I remember now on the 9/6/03 U.S. time--you stated as others said to sell it----excuse me bookmark 8.34--and then gave accurate calls on the sharetrend sometimes to the exact cent from that point on---three days later the same people who thought it was going to tank it at 8.34--then told you to rak off--then told people they were long on it at the top in it's sharetrend.---Yes I remember----WW.
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Name: Wonder Woman
Location: Sydney, NSW Australia
Date: 3/28/03 11:26:06 AM
Subject: S&P500 charting U.S.
Comments:
Here is a point of view--market makers came in at the 780's level (bottom 786) as previously stated since then as we now know it has risen---the latest analysis I have is 862 is a support area, last nights low was 858.09 finishing at 868.52 with a high of 874.15 if it does not hold the 862 area I have another opinion from a U.S. citizen that shorts stocks both up and down--that the next area or support where it would approach oversold is the 840 area.
Regards,--WW.
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S&P500--on Feb 14th the low was 815.03 it is at
that date 834.89 -- The low for the S&P500 Feb 13th 03 U.S. time was 806.29
further dividing the 6 by 2 and making it 3 probably gives a better picture--ie
806 809 812 815 817.12598 818 821 824 825.845 827 830 833--834.56402 836 ROCK AUSSIE>>839 842 845.3596 848 851 854 857 860 863 all that kind of thing. or if you want to be flashy "et hoc genus omne" (lol)the number 6 seems to come
into it--ie 806 812 818 824 830 836 842 848 854-the high Feb 27th 842.19 (ie 806
+6 = 812 + 6 = 818 + 6 = 824 + 6 = 830 +6 = 836 + 6 = 842)
Technicals
Stochastic - Bullish
Last Price Quote is:
-0.72%below 13-day EMA
2.77%above 50-day EMA
Daily Price History
RS Rating: N/A
Stochastic in the U.S. currently oversold and showing bullish--dated the 27/6/03 U.S. time the 28/6/03 Australian time.
Index travelling slightly over it's 50 day ema.
The low _INX 978.29 2:05PM -7.53 -0.76% 988.88 975.51 0 267.50% 53 Long/ 92 Short
on the 27/6/03 U.S. time 28/6/03 Australian time is above the previous lows recorded
Jun 26 2003 986.53 973.80 985.82 177,800
Jun 25 2003 991.64 974.86 975.32 177,800
863 plus 110 gets you 973--if it wasn't this it would be the 960's in my view--so there is only a bit in it-l (non moove chocholate milk) behaviour. on various U.S. BB's
Steve.
_________________
Low/S&P500 27/6/03 U.S. (28/6/03 Oztime.) time 975.51.Low on 30/6/03 U.S. time 973.60 which is 1/7/03 Oz time. Stochastic S&P oversold bullish consolidation 30/6/03 U.S. time. U.S rates lowest 1958.The low July 1st U.S. 962.10. lo 982.32 2nd July
Last edited by bonkers on Sat Jun 28, 2003 4:14 am; edited 2 times in total
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bonkers
Joined: 14 Jun 2003
Posts: 57
Location: Sydney southern suburbs
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2003 8:20 am Post subject: ERG-Cubic has Sydney Aug 7thSan Fran
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ERG--with San Francisco could come earlier than Aug 7th--as Lost say's who is I.T. literate it is a hard one to judge---I would think if the lead transit agencies say yes--that will be the main thing.Anyway the last agency say's they are meeting on August 7th.If it is not July it will be I'd say sometime in August. My own sincere thoughts are ERG does not deserve to be under MOT 8.1x 10=81 cap--me with an investor hat on I feel quite comfortable as stated at any price north of 8.1 x 10=81--all I can say is if it were to go down any further that would be a great pity.
That is a personal statement based on my belief system--analysing ERG--me wishing it not to go down further does not stop the share price doing what it does. As stated removing greed from the equation--above 81--is a glass of milk per day and a tuna sandwich for me.
I see a break over 81 as important--and ofcourse for it to consolidate and stay there. BB's herdal analysis? For ERG to consolidate over 81 it's my herdal analysis that a whole lot of other people will also have that glass of milk tuna sandwich feeling about it too. many of those people don't read even read BB's there are thousands of them I speak to people all the time on the phone who do shares and have never visited a BB The basic trader understands transit contracts in relation to ERG--ie San Francisco is a plus---any deeper understanding of smartcards or their multi application and all that sort of stuff--even though their are tons of articles written on the net about it--it is my view the majority know nothing whatsoever. I could go down the street now and tell every single person ERG has San Francisco--not one single person would understand what I mean't. Cubic has Sydney the machines on my railway station definitely state up the top left hand corner Cubic---Cubic also have San Francisco. Cubic win. The 7/11 stores that I visit in the early hours of the morning? They swipe my card through an eftpos machine and many don't have a clue what a smartcard is.
The only person who would be vaguely aware of Sydney would be Frank Sartor--who's office is next door to the hamburger shop I visit--ex Mayor of Sydney--he may know.
So why therefore should I get overly excited or overly depressed about it on BB's? If I am excited about anything--it has zac all to do with smartcards--I like Doctrine of conservatism and ERG's provision--their my favourites.
No their is nothing delusional about bonkers on BB's only if others attempt to make him that way I believe in God whether the share price goes down or up I recognised reality yesterday I posted arvo pre open--it showed the lowest figure as 5.4---this morning the lowest figure was 6.4--in relation to it and analysis of it--I have read Egilmores post and if anyone is reading this I would urge others to read Egilmores post on the subject. To me what this means is---it's improving on the sell side--for 6.4 is greater than 5.4--in toto with Egilmores post look at the volumes which helps.
On a personal note my favourite meal is good ole Aussie double decker burgers with beetroot and the whole works and moove chocholate milk to wash it down with.
Ive got vicious mongrel Dingo 73--down in market depth and Moove chocholate milk at 76.---BONKERS--(Steve)
http://busboy.sped.ukans.edu/pix_lit/read/readless/readlessacro/chocmilk.pdf
Noted is if you just simply took note of the last time ERG traded (before ERGDA commenced) you wouldn't be too far out with the price trend on ERGDA--it has been as high as 81---which is 2c higher than 7.9 x 10= 79--and it has been 2c lower than 7.5--ie 73 (7.3 x 10)
Code Move Last High Low Opened Prev. Close Trades Volume Value Traded
ERG +0.00 0.075 0.079 0.075 0.079 0.075 0 0 0 23-Jun 04:05:13 pm
Steve.
_________________
Low/S&P500 27/6/03 U.S. (28/6/03 Oztime.) time 975.51.Low on 30/6/03 U.S. time 973.60 which is 1/7/03 Oz time. Stochastic S&P oversold bullish consolidation 30/6/03 U.S. time. U.S rates lowest 1958.The low July 1st U.S. 962.10. lo 982.32 2nd July
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bonkers
Joined: 14 Jun 2003
Posts: 57
Location: Sydney southern suburbs
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2003 1:15 pm Post subject: ERG-LE lending list1stAugust 03-45%Reserve BankTuesday1/7/03
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ERG will be back on the Leveraged Equities lending list on the 1st of August 2003 at the reduced rate of 45%.The Reserve Bank also meets this Tuesday 1/7/03.
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http://www.reservebank.com.au/MonetaryPolicy
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1 July 2003 Board Meeting, Sydney
2 July 2003
Chart Pack
17 July 2003
Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin
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Have a pleasant weekend everybody.
Regards,--Steve.
_________________
Low/S&P500 27/6/03 U.S. (28/6/03 Oztime.) time 975.51.Low on 30/6/03 U.S. time 973.60 which is 1/7/03 Oz time. Stochastic S&P oversold bullish consolidation 30/6/03 U.S. time. U.S rates lowest 1958.The low July 1st U.S. 962.10. lo 982.32 2nd July
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bonkers
Joined: 14 Jun 2003
Posts: 57
Location: Sydney southern suburbs
Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2003 7:20 pm Post subject: ERG --Advance Australia Fair.CPU I don't fight shorters
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On the 25/6/03 U.S. time and the 26/6/03 Oz time--ERG formed a bottom in it's sharetrend on the 25/6/03--Oz time---The Oz Dollar retreated.
Noted.
Min for shorts80m market cap--3 x 2.40754080 =7.22262240 deemed 5% 10.1004at 1/4/03 3,009,426
Min for shorts 80 mill market cap 267,503,037 3.3437879625 x 2 = 6.687575925 x 3 =1000313638875
Min for shorts 100 mill market cap 267,503,037 = 373827531535651312997990374217695 x 2 =74.7655063071302625995980748435391 x 3 = 1.1214825946e+33
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/scrumv/media/australia_fair.ram
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http://www.geocities.com/doghome_astrila/dingo.html
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http://www.patersonord.com.au/researchlibrary/index.cfm
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New report on ERG by Pattersons---previous was December 2002--this one dated 7/4/03.
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ERG Limited (44k) Private Client Weekly 7 April 2003
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Trade note I P protocol blocked at Google--there is a post done by Establish (ego aside which was BK at another website) that using a divisible of 920 in ERG's case and 21.15 in CPU's case that gives you the low for both stocks--almost to the cent.
If anyone is interested you will find it posted under my real name--the low calculated before it happened for CPU was 1.38--eps 9.2 x 15=1.38--source Aspect--Goldmans bought 26 million at 1.35.
It bottomed a few times in that area--posted at Egoli by WW--sometime back also.
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In ERG's case (it has already been posted on this thread--a divisible of 2 using 920 (a former resistance point within ERG's sharetrend from the past) gives you 920 x 2=7185 (pretty close)
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If you use Dingo 930 instead of Dingo 920--divide 2=(the reverse of Dingo 39) 7.265626 x 10----ERG 25/6/03--low 7.3
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Forgetting the past and then moving onto the future, assuming a bottom has been established I can do a number of calculations which I think are extremely accurate and fortell the price, that is what I'm currently doing.
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Maybe it is best if I just say that in my view a bottom as stated has been established.
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When I post for ERG I don't post for an extreme high risk taker--in my view you should always follow the 5 rules pertaining to stockmarket, risk reward safety etc--I can do the extreme stuff, my analysisng on the company though, is all embracing.
Research material posted?
Yes you will trade something you perceive to be high risk for a couple of cents, you won't necessarily make an investment in it, unless you are well researched and confident about the company.
The fundamentals have a crucial impact on the share price MOT is 8.1% of cap 7437 x 10 = 8.1807--aside from that obvious statement, I share with whoever anything I have found or done of ERG, with a time view it is a recovery story with some range trade, that will get better as it moves through time.
The company I repeat has a clean balance sheet post June 30th, for serious investors and traders for that matter, who aren't interested in net games, it offers in my mind a unique opportunity. I don't play with anyones head on share price. On price retreats you won't get from me ERG is dangerous--you will get it is a recovery story.
Extreme short term (as a trader) I'm not saying it is a good idea for ERG at RSI90? I'm not saying it is a bad company though either because it maybe overbought on the extreme--when San Francisco comes out, it will become overbought--that is for sure in my mind okay? people who do charting understand what I'm saying? as a person with 15 years stockmarket experience I sincerly state that, on retreats at lower levels, the trend has been accumulate for months.
I will state this that it is my view that at present price levels with a 12 month investor cap on it is a bargain basement buy. The share price as stated won't go up every day. Incidentally I don't fight shorters either for real or delusionally, I use it to do trade data, noted within the trend is on 90% of occasions the share price usually moves down before it goes up into something positive. This is called short covering. I have no wish to fight stock exchange historical data--no thanks.
There are two statements on the net.
1) ERG is moving down in share price because it is dangerous.
2) ERG is moving down in share price because something positive is likely to occur based on trade data.I am number 2.
I don't use the net for herdal analysis if you are a married man with 4 kids reading this and happen to pay too much for ERG short term and are concerned--I'm not going to do your head over--I will give you my investor cap opinion and if you choose to capitulate--or buy or accumulate (whatever) that is up to you. As stated I have no wish to herdally analyse you. It's not Bergen Belsen here.
Let me do some of my own herdal analysing, it's 4 years experience on BB's that goes into it. There are 3 types of people.
1) People who make a statement I am an investor (you can bet your life the person is really a short term trader.
2) I am a short term trader (you can bet your life the person is an investor.
3) I am the third type of person--I really don't care what I am--on a personal note I have reactive depression--full stop.
It has gone down--I think it maybe fibbonaci --such and such or Gann such and such--or whatever.
On delusion verses reality? ---on price movers San Francisco Yorkshire and Perth are very real--not delusional creations on my part--it would be delusional not to mention them.
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Slow dollar reduces likelihood of local rate cut 27-Jun
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The expected boom of the Australian dollar following the announcement of the US official interest rate cut never eventuated. In fact, it ended up receding. This factor alone makes a local interest rate cut seem less likely than it did even half a week ago.
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After reaching a peak of 67.2 US cents immediately after the announcement, the local currency retreated back into the low mid 66 cent range.
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The slow Australian dollar was largely unexpected, especially given the fact that the US rates were slashed to their lowest point since 1958.
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The Daily Telegraph reported that “A drop in interest rates is not a certainty despite a cut in US rates yesterday, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank to follow next week.”
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Steve.
_________________
Low/S&P500 27/6/03 U.S. (28/6/03 Oztime.) time 975.51.Low on 30/6/03 U.S. time 973.60 which is 1/7/03 Oz time. Stochastic S&P oversold bullish consolidation 30/6/03 U.S. time. U.S rates lowest 1958.The low July 1st U.S. 962.10. lo 982.32 2nd July
Last edited by bonkers on Tue Jul 01, 2003 8:41 am; edited 1 time in total
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bonkers
Joined: 14 Jun 2003
Posts: 57
Location: Sydney southern suburbs
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2003 7:10 am Post subject: ERG--A note on NTA it improves with time/post June 30
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A note on NTA it improves with time and will be greater post June 30th, it will not be reported September as this covers period 30/6/02 to the 30/6/03--it will in the report after that covering period 30/6/03 to the 30/6/04--with half year ending 31/12/03 A minimum of NTA of 7.198 x 10= 72c rounded will be reported in September estimate is that it has grown to 8.5 x 10=8.50--a minimum however of 72, With a time view (essentially that happens post June 30th---even though it is not reported till at least March of 2004-- one calculation for NTA done last December is WW 15.78 x 10 another is M I 15.81x 10=ERG is currently trading half of 2004 F/Y NTA, As N.E. Renton states (actuary with 40 years experience) Australia's accountancy rules don't make a lot of sense in relation to writedowns as sometimes investors can let go of their shares too cheaply., This is approximate and it is without subtracting loans longer and shorter term -- each share on issue has as stated approximately 42.5c in cash attached to it currently,in tally with fundamentals--Yorkshire Perth and San Francisco. I have some old research work used to arrive at 15.78. There is no ego at all in the post.
Regards,--Steve.
_________________
Low/S&P500 27/6/03 U.S. (28/6/03 Oztime.) time 975.51.Low on 30/6/03 U.S. time 973.60 which is 1/7/03 Oz time. Stochastic S&P oversold bullish consolidation 30/6/03 U.S. time. U.S rates lowest 1958.The low July 1st U.S. 962.10. lo 982.32 2nd July
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egilmore
Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 254
Location: Sydney
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2003 10:34 am Post subject:
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Good'ay Bonkers
How many ordinary shares does ERG have after the reconstruction ?
2.667 billion ? cheers eG
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bonkers
Joined: 14 Jun 2003
Posts: 57
Location: Sydney southern suburbs
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2003 10:59 am Post subject: ERG--as given by the company 23/6/03 267,503,037post J30 28%
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Hi Egilmore, the below is the information given by The Group on the 23/6/03--I have just been for a walk along Brighton Le Sands--ended up almost to Sydney Airport, I couldn't help but notice this attractive post on General Holmes Drive, a young lass advertising lingerie, tell you what I nearly had a heart attack--no wonder at that particular stretch of the road their are all these tyre marks from cars that have skidded.
Anyway I had a very enjoyable walk and a can of lemonade so I'm in good mood. I have put it as I did in the prior post on the subject in large letters so all can see. I also watched the little fella's only tiny tots in a park play soccer with mums and dads on the sidelines cheering them on, so that was fun. ERG in the investment sense? I'm 100% confident on it.
Extreme short term trading and all of that sort of stuff, this is a different concept to the company itself as I'm sure you would agree, without wuishing to speak on your behalf, it has eliminated over the last 12 months 370 million dollars worth of debt,It's interest bearing debt to equity ratio has now come down from over a 1000% where it was just a few months ago--to only 28%.
Like so many other things that occur post June 30th--28% becomes official at the stroke of midnight on that day.
As I kind of alluded too in my prior posts--you won't find bonkers on any BB not even as a joke--with great fundamentals like the above occuring June 30th--telling anyone at all they should capitulate or the stock is dangerous. I can only speak for myself. My conscience is clear. It is all manipulative herdal focus in my view, there are quite a few people like me who are not well that read BB's and as stated I don't play with anyones money. I enjoy a laugh and a giggle I salute Australia--all fundamentals on any company I write on whether it be ERG or another is as accurate as I can make it on a BB, ERG? ship shape and Bristol fashion post June 30th. I would like to bring to attention as I have in a prior post, that because of the reconstruction going forward for some time, there will be a range trade in the share--the share, as time goes by this range trade will get better and better in my view, till it more naturally trends just like any other company with progressively better fundamentals, the new managers of ERG are doing a very good reconstruction I can't pick any faults with what they have done, they are astute business people that is for sure. I'm on record as writing somehwere else that all through ERG's reconstruction at every simple retreat in share price it will be a bad comapny--I can only state I am a sophisticated intelligent investor with 15 years stockmarket experience--accredited in the financial markets to a certificated level and I will simply state I don't endorse that behaviour or point of view. It is so nice to be able to express my point of view without being deleted or banned.
Iv'e been around on BB's for 4 years--you don't see me cause I get deleted, but I have experienced every dirty trick in the book, I have a big heart though and I forgive, I could tell you story's--take DVT a manipulator contacted me privately at around 8 to 9c and said I have a view that it will go to 20c the person to me sounded like they knew what they were talking about and were well informed on the company, so that is what I was told privately, the same person was then writing something opposite to that on the BB--anyway at the end of the day it was (mental manipulative mind games aside) 20--minus the zero in the end. In other words it was a manipulative set up I defend for I detect dishonesty while they short.
My experience of BB's sadly for me has mean't I only trust myself, which never used to be me 4 years ago or even two years ago.
So then the stock finally bottoms (DVT) I set about doing honest due diligence and research, new management comes into the company (similar to ERG when I think about it) I record every single detail I can find, I spend hiundreds of net hours looking for stuff, I get removed at the exact low in the share price, the company goes on to merge with another (which I succesfully speculated would happen) and becomes UXC fundamentally strong with IDT under it's umbrella rated by Huntley's as one of the top ten best managed company's in Oz.
None of that you know, I do though.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/scrumv/media/australia_fair.ram
Steve Bonkers! LOL
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Number of shares give by the entity on the 23/6/03 Following the consolidation, the number of ordinary shares on issue will be approximately 267,503,037
_________________
Low/S&P500 27/6/03 U.S. (28/6/03 Oztime.) time 975.51.Low on 30/6/03 U.S. time 973.60 which is 1/7/03 Oz time. Stochastic S&P oversold bullish consolidation 30/6/03 U.S. time. U.S rates lowest 1958.The low July 1st U.S. 962.10. lo 982.32 2nd July
Last edited by bonkers on Sun Jun 29, 2003 12:33 pm; edited 14 times in total
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egilmore
Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 254
Location: Sydney
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2003 11:09 am Post subject:
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Hi Bonks . I'm very glad that the particular ad changed your mood . You see , it is a very good sign for you , and I really mean it . And also thanks 4 the 267m ERG new shares clarification ...cheers eG
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Re: Where BB's get ridiculous is when they become totally out of whack with the company announcement section Board is now scheduled to act on the participation agreement on August 7th.I also have been engaged in a series of meetings with the general managers of BART and San Francisco Muni to address their concerns prior to board action by those two agenciesJune 25th U.S. time June 26th Oz Time.
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