| Subject: BullsBears Sentiment |
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5/25/2003
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Date Posted: 27/07/03 12:04:09am
In reply to:
997.60 = Resistance1Weekly Pivot/Support/Resistance Numbers:
's message, "Targeting a retest of the 1015 levelINX 998.68 10:16PM 17.08 1.74%25/7/03--U.S. time 998.71 977.42 177,800 267.50%" on 26/07/03 12:04:42pm
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1 Kirk Re: Highest Readings 1965-2003 :...
2 Kirk bpcompq, vix and compq charted t...
3 SteveT 5-26-03 Sentiment...
4 David_Korn Historical Data on Investors Int...
5 SteveT Re: 5-26-03 Sentiment...
6 hairie31 Data Source 1965-1988...
7 hairie31 Lowest Sentiment 1965-2003...
8 hairie31 Lowest Sentiment: Correction...
9 Kirk OVERALL bearish sentiment is ris...
10 Kirk Chart of Investor Sentiment 1988...
11 David_Korn Investors Intelligence...
12 SteveT 6-2-03 Sentiment...
13 Kirk Re: 6-2-03 Sentiment...
14 hairie31 6-4-03 Sentiment edging higher...
15 hairie31 ...
16 SteveT 6-9-03 Sentiment...
17 hairie31 AAII Sentiment 6-7-03...
18 hairie31 UPDATED: Bullish Readings 1965-2...
19 SteveT Re: AAII Sentiment 6-7-03...
20 hairie31 Investors Intelligence 6-11-03...
21 hairie31 Correction: Historic Sentiment...
22 Kirk Re: Correction: Historic Sentime...
23 hairie31 Sentiment Records & My Opinions...
24 hairie31 AAII 6-14-03: 70.62...
25 Q_out QQQ Bullishness...
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Author: Kirk
Date: May 25, 2003 9:14 AM
Subject: Re: Highest Readings 1965-2003 : Corrected
.
In response to message posted by hairie31:
Great work hairie31!
I appreciate the data and effort!!!
Where did you get the data?
You wrote: Bulls + Bears (divided by) Bears
I usually see it as "Bulls over (Bulls plus Bears)" which is:
Bulls /(Bulls + Bears)
and VTO Report does "Bullish Advisors Minus Bearish Advisors" here http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/senti...
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Author: Kirk
Date: May 25, 2003 9:35 AM
Subject: bpcompq, vix and compq charted to 5/23/03
.
To:Kirk who wrote (9880)
From: Gottfried Sunday, May 25, 2003 12:20 PM
Respond to of 9886
bpcompq, vix and compq charted to 5/23/03 http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_...
To subscribe for free: http://www.suite101.com/subscribe_discus...
I'd bookmark this http://www.suite101.com/discussions.cfm/... Then I'd suggest subscribing to these discussion threads above using the "subscribe" button at the bottom of each topic. Then you can click "what's new" on the left under "Member Central" to get a list of your bookmarked/subscribed topics. This makes it much easier to find these discussions should they roll off the Top 20 list.
Kirk Lindstrom ---- Thanks for supporting our efforts here
Editor: Investing and Personal Finance
Click for Kirk's Store, Reading List, Finance Links, or a Free Issue of my Newsletter
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DISCLAIMER: Answers & my words are general in nature, are not meant as specific investment advice, and do not necessarily represent the opinion of anyone but Kirk. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
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Author: SteveT
Date: May 25, 2003 2:18 PM
Subject: 5-26-03 Sentiment
Sorry folks my computer is acting up so I'll give you the bare bones numbers.
II Sentiment Bulls 56% Bears 20.9% Correction 23.1%
56/(56+20.9)= 72.82%
Four week moving average= 68.55%
Sideline money=44%
4 week MA Sideline=46.38%
AAII Bulls 38.5% Bears 35.6% Neutral 25.9
38.5/(38.5+35.6)= 51.96%
Four week moving average 67.86
Sideline money=61.5%
4 week MA Sideline= 49.33%
VIX= 21.38
10 day Moving average CBOE Put/Call= .82
Steve Thompson
Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser Fan Club Web Site
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Author: David_Korn
Date: May 25, 2003 2:53 PM
Subject: Historical Data on Investors Intelligence
In response to message posted by hairie31:
hairie31 and Steve, thanks for the posts. (and you too Kirk!). harie31, you had a question mark next to your data for January 17, 1992. According to my records, on 1/17/92, there were 60.0% Bulls and 19.1% Bears. Using the formula, bulls/(bulls + bears), that would bring the percentage to 75.85%. I believe your other data you are actually using that same formula. I am trying to get the actual data for the entire history of the II survey. Where did you get your figures? Thanks. - David
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Author: SteveT
Date: May 25, 2003 8:10 PM
Subject: Re: 5-26-03 Sentiment
In response to message posted by SteveT:
Thanks to Nicholas at Dell tech support.
I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment...
Once again the II data is relatively stable, showing very mild movement. AAII had a dramatic swing this week. VIX moved up towards 24 as the market closed in on the low for the week. While Put/Call jumped across the 1.0 barrier only to close the week at .74 with a slightly higher 10 day moving average of .82. Did investors and traders rejoice in the tax cut that passed Friday? Be interesting to see how the market reacts to the news next week and how the sentiment surveys come in next week.
Investors Intelligence Bulls 56% Bears 20.9 % Correction 23.1%
56/(56+20.9)=72.82%
Four Week Average = 68.55%
A few historic dates 7-20-98 68.42% 10-12-98 47.41% 4-3-00 67.79% 1-1-01 64.10% 4-4-01 56.27% 9-10-01 58.91% 9-17-01 52% 9-21-01 48.7% 7-19-02 47.2% 7-23-02 47.2% 10-9-02 50%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction =44%
Four Week Average = 46.38%
From Barron' s 5/26/03
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 38.5% Bears 35.6% Neutral 25.9%
38.5/(38.5+35.6)=51.96
Four Week Average = 67.86%
Historic dates for comparison S&P 500 Close. 7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75 10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39 4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97 1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28 4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25 9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78 9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77 9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80 7-19-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 847.75 7-23-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 797.70 10-9-02 42.36% S&P 500 Close 776.76
Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 61.5%
Four Week Average = 49.33%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com
As of May 23, 2003 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .82. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 21.38. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t
Steve Thompson
Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser Fan Club Web Site
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author: hairie31
Date: May 26, 2003 2:12 AM
Subject: Data Source 1965-1988
In response to message posted by David_Korn:
I compiled the data from 1965 thru
1988 from Sentiment 1965-1988
From 1989-1999 my figures are based on graphs and are not 100% accurate. Maybe David Korn or someone else could supply the Investors Intelligence data from 1989 through 1999 and we can put this whole thing together and be close to 100% accurate.
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Author: hairie31
Date: May 26, 2003 2:56 AM
Subject: Lowest Sentiment 1965-2003
From 1989-1999 I'm not 100 % sure of Accuracy.
4/3/1967 ---13.7
8/1/1969 ---19.6
1/9/1979 ---22.1
3/21/1969---25.7
6/4/1982----27.0 (4th Bottom)
3/14/1980---27.1
12/2/1988---27.6
10/19/1966--28.0 (1st Bottom)
9/18/1981 --28.7
8/23/1974---29.1 (3rd Bottom)
11/3/1978---29.2
5/15/1970---31.2 (2nd Bottom)
9/4/1968 ---31.6
Oct. 1990---33.3 ???
5/27/1988---35.2
May 1994 ---35.3 ???
6/8/1973----35.8
11/30/1973--35.9
2/20/1981 --35.9
6/1/1984 ---36.6
10/30/1987--37.2
6/8/1973 ---38.8
10/17/2002--39.66
7/30/1965 --41.1
Apr. 1997 --42.86 ???
9/11/1998 --42.8 ???
10/10/2002--44.2
9/27/2001 --44.4
10/4/2001 --44.6
8/15/1975 --46.4
9/26/1986 --46.8
8/8/2002 --47.1
9/20/2001 --48.7
11/26/1971--50.0
3/12/2003 --51.48
3/20/2003 --72.82
Certainily the 4 major bottom in the secular Bear Market of 1966-1982 were caught with the low sentiment figure.
The March 11, 2003 Reading of 51.48 isn't even remotely close to the previous the sentiment reading of the 4 major market bottoms of 1966-1982 Secular Bear Market, which the sentiment ranged from
27 to 31.2
The May 20, 2003 reading of 72.82 and with the VIX currently at 21..how can anyone believe we're in the early stage of a new bull market?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author: hairie31
Date: May 26, 2003 3:37 AM
Subject: Lowest Sentiment: Correction
In response to message posted by hairie31:
The last figure should have read:
5/20/2003 72.85
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Author: Kirk
Date: May 26, 2003 7:53 AM
Subject: OVERALL bearish sentiment is rising
.
SENTIMENT JOURNAL: Sell In May?
By Frederic Ruffy, Optionetics.com
5/23/2003 11:00:00 AM
Market Internals: After Monday’s 185-point plunge, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) steadied on Tuesday and began a gradual climb higher (through Thursday). Market internals improved as trading progressed. For instance, the ratio of advancing to declining issues, which was more than two-to-one negative Monday, ameliorated. As we can see from the Market Data table above, advancing issues trailed declining issues Tuesday, the trend reversed Wednesday, and by Thursday, the ratio of advancing to declining issues was two-to-one positive. The ability for the stock market to recover from the sharp sell-off Monday, and for internals to strengthen as the week progressed, is a sign of a healthy trend.
The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPQ) fell during five of the past seven trading sessions. In the latest week, the Nasdaq gave up roughly 30 points or 2% (although Friday’s numbers were not in at the time of this writing). Heavy losses occurred Monday, when the Composite index dropped 46 points, or 3%. From that point forward, the situation stabilized and market internals improved. By Thursday, up volume led down volume by a three-to-one margin and the ratio of advancing issues to declining issues was five-to-three positive. The question will be whether market internals can continue to improve as traders come back from the Memorial Day holiday and trading volumes increase once again. Technical traders will also be watching to see whether or not the Nasdaq Composite can hold the 1,500 level.
Sentiment Data:
There is an adage on Wall Street that says, “sell in May and then go away.” The logic behind this little ditty is that October to April tend to be the strongest period for stocks, but May to September are the weakest. Therefore, it is better to sell or trade the market to the downside beginning in May. In addition, the month of May was a pivotal moment for the stock market last year. During that month, stocks started slipping and volatility began to rise. The trend continued until late-July. From the end of May until July 23, the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) surged from 23% to over 50%. Many option traders are naturally wondering if volatility is once again set to rise as we move into the month of June.
Predicting changes in volatility is quite simple when compared to, for instance, computing the radius of the North Star, but it is not always a straightforward endeavor. There are certain factors to consider and one is the prevailing market sentiment. If the majority of investors, or the crowd, are predominantly bullish or complacent, the chances of increasing volatility become higher. At that point, the majority of investors have already bought shares and they are more inclined to sell in the event of unwelcome and unexpected news.
Over the past few weeks, we have noted here that the sentiment data is showing the type of complacency and bullishness that has characterized previous market tops. During the past week, however, there has been evidence of rising bearishness. For example, the CBOE put-to-call ratio has risen above 1.00 during all four trading sessions. Such a series of high readings are relatively rare and suggest a high proportion of put activity relative to call volume, which is also an indication of a high level of bearish sentiment. Thursday, the ratio jumped up to 1.16 and to its fourth highest reading of the year. The increase in the ratio is a clear sign that options traders are becoming more cautious and are beginning to hedge bets in case, just like it was last year, the month of May turns out to be a major turning point in the market. In addition, as we can see from the Sentiment Indicators table below, the index put-to-call ratio also spiked higher. It rose to 2.70 Thursday. Readings of 2.00 plus are generally considered a positive omen for the stock market.
Not all indicators are pointing to rising levels of bearish sentiment, however. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX remains at low levels. As a result, the market’s so-called “fear gauge” is reflecting very few signs of market angst. The latest surveys of investor sentiment from Investor’s Intelligence are now showing 56% bullish (from 54.4% a week ago) and only 20.9% bearish (and down from 23.9%). Finally, the put volume indicator [PVI], which rises towards 2.00 when investors are extremely bearish, fell to .85 as put activity declined sharply Wednesday.
Overall, then, from a sentiment perspective, bearish sentiment is rising after falling to very low levels. There is every reason to expect that bearish sentiment will continue to increase as a number of indicators are still showing relative bullishness or complacency in the market. If so, it would be natural to assume volatility will increase as we move into the summer months and out of the month of May.
http://www.optionetics.com/articles/arti...
Kirk Lindstrom ---- Thanks for supporting our efforts here
Editor: Investing and Personal Finance
Click for Kirk's Store, Reading List, Finance Links, or a Free Issue of my Newsletter
I support
Our Troops!
DISCLAIMER: Answers & my words are general in nature, are not meant as specific investment advice, and do not necessarily represent the opinion of anyone but Kirk. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author: Kirk
Date: May 28, 2003 6:19 AM
Subject: Chart of Investor Sentiment 1988-2003
.
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20030528.ht...
Chart of the Day
With stock prices well off their year 2000 highs, you would think that the prevailing mood on Wall Street would be somewhat pessimistic. According to today's chart of investment advisor sentiment, however, the mood remains extremely optimistic. If you accept the theory that pessimists are potential buyers and optimists are potential sellers, then the current percent bull reading of 68.5% suggests that stock prices remain vulnerable. Stay tuned...
Notes:
- Red arrows occur when percent bulls peaks above 65%.
- Green arrows occur when percent bulls bottoms below 35%.
- Green & white arrows occur when percent bulls bottoms below 55% (from 1996-present).
- Percent bulls equals the 4-week moving average of the number of bullish advisors divided by bullish plus bearish advisors.
Source - Investors Intelligence
Kirk Lindstrom ---- Thanks for supporting our efforts here
Editor: Investing and Personal Finance
Click for Kirk's Store, Reading List, Finance Links, or a Free Issue of my Newsletter
I support
Our Troops!
DISCLAIMER: Answers & my words are general in nature, are not meant as specific investment advice, and do not necessarily represent the opinion of anyone but Kirk. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author: David_Korn
Date: May 31, 2003 10:41 AM
Subject: Investors Intelligence
I just did the rough calculations, and it looks like the four-week moving average of [(bulls)/(bulls + bears)] in the Investors Intelligence survey is now above 70% for the first time in a VERY long time. The number I calculated is 70.69%.
- David Korn
editor of http://www.BeginInvesting.com
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Author: SteveT
Date: June 1, 2003 6:14 AM
Subject: 6-2-03 Sentiment
I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment... Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.
No big shake up in VIX or Put/Call this week but both sentiment polls indicate extreme bullishness. For the first time in recent memory both surveys show current week and four week moving average of bulls/bulls+bears above 70%. NYSE and NASDAQ volume have been impressive relative to that of the past 52 weeks. Does all this mean this bull market has legs or are we due for a pull back? Time will tell.
Investors Intelligence Bulls 53.6% Bears 22 % Correction 24.4%
53.6/(53.6+22=70.9%
Four Week Average = 70.68%
A few historic dates:7-20-98 68.42%10-12-98 47.41%4-3-00 67.79% 1-1-01 64.10%4-4-01 58.91%9-17-01 52.0%9-21-01 48.7%7-19-02 47.2%7-23-02 47.2%10-9-02 50.0%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction =46.4%
Four Week Average = 45.05%
From Barron' s 5/26/03
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 62.9% Bears 14.3% Neutral 22.8%
62.9/(62.9+14.3)=81.48%
Four Week Average = 71.95%
Historic dates for comparison:7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.7510-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.394-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.971-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.284-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.259-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.789-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.779-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.807-19-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 847.757-23-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 797.7010-9-02 42.36% S&P 500 Close 776.76
Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 37.1%
Four Week Average = 45.75%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com
As of May 30, 2003 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .83. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 21.7. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t
Steve Thompson
Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser Fan Club Web Site
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Author: Kirk
Date: June 1, 2003 7:13 AM
Subject: Re: 6-2-03 Sentiment
In response to message posted by SteveT:
Thanks for your hard work Steve.
It is great to read these results each week and compare to the historical data.
Could you add the all time highs and lows somehow into your tables that Harrie calculated here? http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
He uses the 4 week MA of bulls over bulls plus bears so you could note that and compare to the current data you present in your tables.
Thanks! I look forward to reading this each week as do many, many others.
Kirk Lindstrom ---- Thanks for supporting our efforts here
Editor: Investing and Personal Finance
Click for Kirk's Store, Reading List, Finance Links, or a Free Issue of my Newsletter
I support
Our Troops!
DISCLAIMER: Answers & my words are general in nature, are not meant as specific investment advice, and do not necessarily represent the opinion of anyone but Kirk. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author: hairie31
Date: June 4, 2003 6:29 AM
Subject: 6-4-03 Sentiment edging higher
June 4, 2003 Reading is 73.18, slightly above the 72.82 reading of 5-20-03.
Current reading Bulls 56.5, Bears 20.7.
It's interesting to note all the 13 readings that were higher than today's reading, that I previously posted, "Highest Readings 1965 to
2003", with the exception of the 1/17/92 reading of 75.85, were all readings before the Crash of 1987.
Perhaps the Crash of 1987 had some long lasting effect on massive bullishness thereafter or will we see bullishness rise to the 80-90 level before this is over?
We certainily didn't see those levels in March, 2000 at the peak of the 1982-2000 Bull market.
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Author: hairie31
Date: June 7, 2003 6:51 PM
Subject:
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Author: SteveT
Date: June 8, 2003 5:39 PM
Subject: 6-9-03 Sentiment
I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment... Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average. As of now I do not have the AAII data so I will pass that on when it is available. VIX is creeping upward and Put/Call hasn’t moved much. But those II bears are running for the hills. If you follow the link provided by hairie below you will see the bulls still have a long way to go from a historically basis for new highs. Does all this mean the rally can continue or is it topping out? Who knows, but it does pass the time while we find out what the future has in store.
Investors Intelligence Bulls 56.5% Bears 20.7 % Correction 22.8%
56.5/(56.5+20.7)=73.19%
Four Week Average = 71.59%
A few historic dates:7-20-98 68.42%10-12-98 47.41%4-3-00 67.79% 1-1-01 64.10%4-4-01 58.91%9-17-01 52.0%9-21-01 48.7%7-19-02 47.2%7-23-02 47.2%10-9-02 50.0%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction =43.5%
Four Week Average = 44.88%
hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
As of June 6, 2003 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .75. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 23.43. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t
Steve Thompson
Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser Fan Club Web Site
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Author: hairie31
Date: June 9, 2003 12:08 AM
Subject: AAII Sentiment 6-7-03
From Barron's 6-7-03:
Bulls: 52
Bears: 19.2
Total Sentiment: 73
---------------------------
All-time AAII Sentiment Extremes
High: 92 % in August 1987
Low: 16 % in October 1990
--------------------------
Recent Highs and Lows:
2-24-03: 26.71
6-2-03: 81.48
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Author: hairie31
Date: June 9, 2003 1:02 AM
Subject: UPDATED: Bullish Readings 1965-2003
Highest Bullish Readings from Investors Intelligence 1965-2003
1/14/1977 - 94.6(Dow peak 12-31-76)
1/26/1966 - 90.9(Dow Peaks 2-9-66)
4/23/1965 - 89.7
4/4/1986 -- 86.6
3/26/1971 - 85.0(Dow peaks 4-28-71)
--------------------------
12/15/1972- 85.0(Dow peak 1-11-73)
2/17/1987 - 83.1
6/24/1983 - 82.9
9/10/1971 - 82.1
8/13/1978 - 79.7 (Dow peaks 9-8-78)
-----------------
2/21/1975 - 79.1
8/14/1987 - 76.25(Dow peak 8-25-87)
1/17/1992 - 75.85 (Dow Flat 1 yr) 6/4/2003 -- 73.18(RED FLAG-2003)
1/10/2002 - 69.85-Dow peaks 3-19-02
-------------------------------
7/19/2001 - 69.35(Dow peak 7-19-01)
7/20/1998 - 68.42-Dow peaks 7-17-98
12/14/2000- 68.22
1/27/2000 - 68.2 (DOW PEAK 1-14-00)
2/22/2001 - 68.15
---------------------------------
4/13/2000 - 68.06(S&P PEAK 3-24-00)
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Author: SteveT
Date: June 9, 2003 4:32 AM
Subject: Re: AAII Sentiment 6-7-03
In response to message posted by hairie31:
Thanks hairie, I'll update my info.
From Barron' s 6/9/03/03
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 52% Bears 19.2% Neutral 28.8%
52/(52+19.2))=73.03%
Four Week Average = 71.68%
Historic dates for comparison:7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.7510-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.394-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.971-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.284-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.259-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.789-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.779-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.807-19-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 847.757-23-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 797.7010-9-02 42.36% S&P 500 Close 776.76
Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 48%
Four Week Average = 45.95%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com
Steve Thompson
Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser Fan Club Web Site
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author: hairie31
Date: June 11, 2003 7:50 AM
Subject: Investors Intelligence 6-11-03
Bulls: 58.7
Bears: 16.3
Sentiment Reading: 78.26
------------
This is the highest reading in 28 Years(1975).
It is now higher than than the peak reading of 75.85 on 8/14/1987, 9 days before the market peaked (8/25/1987) and a 36 % Decline started.
The ratio of Bulls & Bears is now 3.60:1
As I recall the reading, the editor of Stockmarket Cycles and the Dines Letter have said they will turn bullish if the Dow goes to 9,150 and 9,200 respectively, so we could easily see the sentiment reading go into the 80s next week, if the Dow rises another 200 points.
Is the market trying to suck in as many people as it can before a massive decline starts? Based on history, I think that's where were headed.
The only fear in the market now is the fear of missing the next great bull market train.
The market always looks wonderful just before a major decline. What was the sentiment in Early 2000? How many people foresaw the 50 % decline in the S & P, the 80 % decline in the Nasdaq and the all the Dot.coms that would become worthless?
Another thing....It's become apparent to me in the past few months after some of the biggest so-called Bears have turned bullish after the market has rallied 20 % + in 3 months, is that these people just follow the herd and really didn't believe anything they were saying all along.
I bet they'll be the last to panic sell at the bottom, to try and cut there losses.
Stay tuned..this story is getting interesting!
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Author: hairie31
Date: June 11, 2003 8:36 AM
Subject: Correction: Historic Sentiment
Part of my previous posting was incorrect:
Our current sentment reading of
78.26 is the highest reading since
2/17/1987.(83.1) That would be the 16 years ago..not 25 years ago.
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Author: Kirk
Date: June 11, 2003 11:36 AM
Subject: Re: Correction: Historic Sentiment
In response to message posted by hairie31:
Pretty amazing sentiment numbers.
I read a post where a guy who followed a guru (Bob Brinker) like a religion did not follow his advice to become fully invested on May 11th, 2003 and he has many, many he knows that also follow Brinker and not a one went back to fully invested.
If a tree falls in an empty forest, will anyone hear it?
I think the "pro market timers" are saying to buy but they have all been so very wrong at least once in the last 5 years that nobody gives a damn what they are saying when you measure it by how they are acting with their cash.
What we really need to look at for sentiment, I think, is your numbers back when the market was in a real bear and starting to become a bull... Then sentiment readings of 90% were not uncommon...
Of course, >70 is in the "worry zone" even off a bear market, but being above 60% is not the same as it was during a secular bull market.
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DISCLAIMER: Answers & my words are general in nature, are not meant as specific investment advice, and do not necessarily represent the opinion of anyone but Kirk. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
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Author: hairie31
Date: June 12, 2003 11:55 PM
Subject: Sentiment Records & My Opinions
Our current level of Bears (16.3)
is the lowest level since 4/10/87.
The current ratio of Bulls to Bears, now at 3.6:1, is the higest it's been since 3/27/87.
This is the first time the Bull/Bears ratio has been above 3.0:1 since 1/22/92.
Being 100 % in cash, I'm hoping the sentiment continues to rise till what I suspect is currently a massive "Sucker's Rally"... will finally blows up and panic selling ensuing.
Maybe the real Buying opportunity will be in Late October-Early November with sentiment massively
Bearish.
Dow 6,400 would be a -45.4% Decline from 1/14/00 high of 11,722. That would at least match the -45.07 % decline the Dow had in the 1973-74
Bear Market.(Dow 1,051.7 on 1/11/73 to Dow 577.6 on 12/6/74.
I don't think it's unrealistic to expect after a 18 year Bull Market,
with a 1,400 % increase in the Dow, the decline in the Dow should be at least as much as it was during the previous bear Market.
I would like to see the Dow go much lower, but if it ends up around 6,400 in Oct/November 2003, I will accept that as the bottom of the bear market and will be buying at that time.
If we get such a massive low this year, it will probably make it 4 down years in a row for the market.
At that point, it would really seem highly unlikely the market would be down for 5 years in a row.
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Author: hairie31
Date: June 14, 2003 2:30 PM
Subject: AAII 6-14-03: 70.62
Bulls 50.0
Bears 20.8
------------
Sentiment 70.62
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Author: Q_out
Date: June 14, 2003 6:55 PM
Subject: QQQ Bullishness
Bullishness on the Nasdaq 100 ($BPNDX, 91) is at its highest point since mid-November 1999. The $BPNDX peaked there at 93 three months ahead of peak in the QQQ. Then it put a secondary peak at 88 in early June 2000, three months ahead of the September QQQ peak. http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?... Pull the slider back to late 1999.
If this momentum keeps up for another three months, trailing stops may make sense.
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