Re: DENNIS- -- Dracut Weekly Roundtable

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Subject: Re: DENNIS-

Author:
Dennis

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Date Posted: 07:38:12 05/09/03 Fri
In reply to: DRACUT RESIDENT #37 's message, "DENNIS-" on 09:15:45 05/08/03 Thu

Dear Residente Numero Treinte y Siete:

Now you remained anonymous, and expressed a very decided opinion -- that's against our "Four Simple Rules" -- but I decided to let it slide because it's such a generalized condemnation.

I think the analysis that was done in Rob Mills' article was very good. I think Ms. Paquette and Messrs. Daigle, Morin and Shaw were all right on the money. Turnout, campaigning, and contract all played a part.

The one area of difference is the Jeannie Balkas effect on the Deeb-Hould race. Warren thinks Jeannie helped Hould. Bill thinks Jeannie helped Deeb. I tend to (on a gut level) agree with Bill.

But if you look at the numbers, you'll see it just doesn't matter. DJ would have won with or without Jeannie's participation. Here's why:

- DJ won by 213 votes.

- In order to make 213 votes up, Jeannie's vote of 376 would have had to split 79-21%, or some combination similar to that with 5% blanks. 79-21 would yield a 297 to 79 vote, making up 218 votes.

- NO VOTE in this town splits that way. Not even individual precincts. Never. Not in the last ten elections, anyway (from 1994 to 2003).

- The closest to it in a contested race was Joe Campbell in 1995 who got 67% of the vote -- but that was a two-seat race.

- The closest to it in a single-seat contested race was yours truly in 2000 with 63%.

- Even uncontested races, like Gerry Suprenant this year, a gentleman who is well regarded and who has zero baggage, don't get 79%. (But Gerry just missed with 78%.)

If Jeannie had campaigned and got a few more hundred votes, then we could argue about whether her candidacy affected the outcome. As it stands, it just didn't.

In my humble opinion.

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