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Date Posted: 14:14:25 08/31/06 Thu
Author: No name
Subject: 澳紐元或現逆向走勢

澳紐元或現逆向走勢

01/09/2006
文： 亨達國際潘沐恩

昨天小妹提及紐元因未來兩周數據貧乏，而美國早前公布的FOMC會議記錄又顯示加息周期或已告一段落，故紐元的利淡因素暫除，而息口優勢將短期佔優，令紐元有機會上升至65美仙，紐元果然在周三紐約時段已升至逼近該位，昨天更高見0.6530，達到五個半月高位，看來上升動能較小妹預期為強，九月中前或上試66美仙。
與新西蘭一水之隔的澳洲，雖然在今年尚有最少一次加息機會，但本周在美元普遍回軟的情況下，澳元升幅卻頗為輕微，與目前經濟基調較差的紐元大相逕庭，此情況正好反映出，愛好收益率的投資者入市方向是可等短線。

澳元兌紐元八月的累積跌幅為十七年來最大的單月跌幅，而八月份紐元兌美元的累積升幅達5.4%，澳元兌美元卻下跌了0.5%，此乃因為投資者覬覦紐元7.25厘的息口回報，並將澳元資產轉換至紐元，令澳元兌紐元的弱勢阻礙了澳元兌美元的升幅。

市場關注九月數據
不過，此種形勢未來或會出現逆轉，因新西蘭九月中起將有連串經濟數據出爐，包括最受關注的經常帳項目。由於市場預期此數據將影響紐元表現，加上澳元仍有加息憧憬支撐，故在紐元回弱之時，投資者將以憂慮紐元下跌削弱資產回報為由，捨棄紐元而重投澳元資產的懷抱，預料在此情況下，澳元與紐元將出現逆向關連的走勢。

美國周三晚公布對今晚的就業數據有預示作用的ADP就業變化數據，市場預期為12.8萬人，但公布只得10.7萬人，令市場對今晚的數據抱略為悲觀的看法，如數據確實遜於預期，預料美元將會面臨一定沽壓。

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