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Polls give Baillieu the edge Wet weather is expected to lead to an increase in the number of people who fail to vote, which could affect the result.
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Date Posted: 26/11/10 10:19:53
FINAL polls before today's state election reveal voters are turning to a Ted Baillieu Coalition government.
Today's Newspoll has the Coalition with 51.1 per cent of the two-party preferred vote ahead of Labor with 48.9 per cent.
It is the first time the Coalition has been in front in the campaign. Just two weeks ago, Labor held a 51-49 per cent lead, according to Newspoll.
The Herald Sun/Galaxy Poll published yesterday also pointed to a late swing to the Coalition, showing the race tightening to 50-50, with Labor able to hang on to power only with Greens preferences.
The Coalition needs 13 seats to claim government.
But with so many cliffhanger seats to be decided today, Victoria could be on course for a hung Parliament. A result may not be known until Monday.
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Voting booths open today at 8am and close at 6pm.
Wet weather is expected to lead to an increase in the number of people who fail to vote, which could affect the result.
Today's Newspoll, to be published in The Weekend Australian, comes as punters bucked the polls and installed Labor as the short-priced favourite at $1.17.
TAB Sportsbet had the Coalition at $4.50 outsiders to win government.
Punters last night had wagered almost $400,000 on the election, with the vast majority backing a Labor victory.
The two biggest bets early in the campaign were $20,000 on a Labor win at about $1.30 and $17,000 on the Coalition at $4.
The parties' latest private polling, obtained by the Herald Sun last night, showed up to 15 seats were in the balance - rated at a 48-52 chance either way.
But seat-by-seat polling still indicated Labor would just get over the line.
No one was expecting a uniform swing and most political insiders said Labor had done a good job in sandbagging key seats and selling a less arrogant and softer Premier to the Victorian public.
Even Coalition insiders said before the Newspoll that the 13 seats needed to win was likely to be too many.
The Liberals expected instead to pick up between 8-10 seats at best.
Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu yesterday focused on Melbourne's outer eastern and southeastern suburbs, where the Liberals are tipped to pick up as many as six or seven seats.
In contrast, Premier John Brumby went to regional Victoria in an effort to avoid the mistakes of Jeff Kennett in 1999 when country voters tipped him out of office.
Mr Brumby's mission also is to protect Labor's rising star, Jacinta Allan, who is under huge pressure to hold Bendigo East.
Mr Brumby is also believed to have picked up support thanks to damaging Labor attack ads against Mr Baillieu, which helped to sway voters against taking a chance on the Coalition.
A senior Labor MP told the Herald Sun the Coalition would perform strongest in Melbourne's east, with seats like Burwood, Forest Hill, Mitcham and Mount Waverley in danger of falling.
The Greens, the MP said, could win Melbourne and possibly even Brunswick.
And Prahran also was risky.
"I think it will be close," the MP said.
"The results will differ dramatically. There won't be a uniform swing.
"If anyone says they know who will win, then they are just making it up."
A senior Liberal source said the odds were against the Coalition winning, with internal polling showing the party gaining a maximum of 10 seats.
But the Nationals may pull off a major surprise and upset long-standing independent MP Craig Ingram in Gippsland East.
But this gain for the Nationals may be offset by the loss of Mildura.
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