Date Posted:19:37:11 11/01/03 Sat Author: Malcolm Subject: Elwin in the Middle In reply to:
Redman
's message, "Re: Some observations" on 23:25:27 10/31/03 Fri
>Malcolm-- explain elwins mind to me.
>
>Starting to pick up some momentum after the polls
>cause him to go into a skid and what does he do?
>
>Throws a fit!!!,
etc.
Malcolm:
Actually, the entire idea of having Elwin front and centre in the SaskParty campaign completely baffles me. His negatives significantly outweigh his positives, even in rural areas where the SP is strong. While Calvert's positives subtract negatives number is about +15, Elwin's is about the same on the minus side. And that is quite an accomplishment for hte leader of the opposition facing an old government. In this context, the opposition leader has a natural advantage. But Elwin's public persona is so negative.
So what does the SaskParty do?
Well, first they build the entire campaign around him. Usually, with an unpopular leader, you feature "the team." Mind you, since Gantefor and Bjornrud et al come across as no warmer than Elwin, I can see a certain weakness in that. But there are a lot of SaskParty MLAs who come across very well on television. Brad Wall, Wayne Elhard, Don McMorris all come across well. Among candidates, you have former 'Rider Rob Bresciani. Of course, Elwin views them all as threats to his leadership.
Now, there is a risk in underplaying the leader -- as the SP discovered when they tried keeping Elwin under wraps last spring. They got crucified in the Legislature -- and Brad Wall was frequently referred to as the Leader of the Opposition.
The thing is, if your leader is weak, you play up the team -- and you try to build up the leader by tying him to the team.
Next, they sent Elwin into the debate loaded for bear. He came across as the heavy -- and gave Calvert any number of opportunities to refer to Elwin's volume, anger, finger-pointing and name-calling. Competent campaign organizers (sorely lacking, it seems, in the SaskParty) would have told Elwin to look like a Premier. Instead, he looked like a belligerant rage-o-holic.
A month ago, this was the SaskParty's election to lose. There is no way I'd have said they could lose it. But Reg Downs seems determined to prove me wrong.
Anyway, Redman, I haven't heard this story you're referrring to. But if Agrivision has managed to set up some sort of Labour Venture Capital Fund for Agriculture, then only a complete idiot in Saskatchewan could oppose such a thing.
