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Date Posted: 15:04:44 07/02/10 Fri
Author: Ralph Meloon (Egregious and slanted toward commercial fisheries)
Subject: Re: 40% more fish ?
In reply to: Don Johnson 's message, "40% more fish ?" on 14:30:05 07/02/10 Fri

>It appears that the Alaska Department of Fish and Game
>is planning on re-calculating the sockeye escapement
>goal range for the Kenai River tonight, July 2, at
>the Aquaculture Building, 6:30 p.m..
>
>It seems that the department believes that its new
>Dittson sonar is counting 40% more fish than its
>old Bendix sonar, so the department wants to change
>the Kenai Rivers sockeye escapement goal range.
>It looks like they want to change the escapement goal
>range to anticipate what the Alaska Board of Fish
>"would have done" with this 40% information, if they
>would have been given it when they established our
>current 650,000 - 850,000 Bendix sonar sockeye goal
>range.
>That may sound like a rather strange way to address
>this kind of issue but that it what is about to happen.
>Usually this kind of an issue is written up into a
>Board of Fish, Out-Of-Cycle Request and handled by
>the Board of Fish as soon as possible. The ADF&G has
>decided to not go this route, for some reason,
>and is instead attempting to remedy the situation with
>an instant, in season, re-calculation of the data
>to compensate for the 40% increase in sonar targets.
>
>Our current sockeye escapement goal range is between
>650,000 - 850,000 sockeye on the Kenai River
>and 150,000 fish of that escapement is the sport fish
>allocation. The ADF&G appears to be planning on
>subtracting the sport fish allocation from the range
>and NOT re-calculating it.
>650,000 min. - 150,000 sport allocation = 500,000 min.
>sockeye escapement
>850,000 max. - 150,000 sport allocation = 700,000 max.
>sockeye escapement
>The remaining 500,000 - 700,000 sockeye range would
>then be re-calculated for the Bendix / Dittson 40%
>factor.
>If the ADF&G then intends to subtract the 40% off the
>current sockeye goal range, then the following
>may be the new calculation they intend to preform.
>
>200,000 sockeyes is 40% of the 500,000 min.
>280,000 sockeyes is 40% of the 700,000 max..
>
>500,000 min. - 200,000 = 300,000 sockeyes
>700,000 max. - 280,000 = 420,000 sockeyes
>
>The new sockeye escapement goal range would then be
>reduced to 300,000 - 420,000 sockeyes with the
>150,000 sport allocation added on top of that, leaving
>a goal range of between 450,000 - 570,000 sockeyes.
>The old escapement goal would have been between
>650,000 - 850,000 sockeye and the new escapement
>goal would be between 450,000 - 570,000 sockeyes. This
>would be a difference of 200,000 - 280,000 sockeyes.
>The average would then be about 240,000 sockeye and
>that is the number of fish we appear to be dealing
>with.
>It appears that the ADF&G believes that the Board of
>Fish would have reduced our current sockeye escapement
>goal range if they had been given Kenai River sockeye
>escapement data with 40% more escaping fish.
>It naturally follows that if you reduce this
>escapement range, that the department will then reach
>its Kenai River
>escapement sooner and therefore allow additional days
>for commercial fisheries to fish.
>All public fisheries understand what happens when this
>kind of a situation develops. It normally holds nothing
>good for public fisheries because the fish which
>normally show up, never do show up.
>Anyway it may be a good thing to do for folks to show
>up at this ADF&G meeting and see how they intend to
>handle this 40% sonar factor.

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