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Subject: 請看以下數據,香港大學在9/11 公報的選舉名單。


Author:
富甲天下4
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Date Posted: 18:17:00 09/13/04 Mon

請看以下數據,香港大學在9/11 公報的選舉名單。

余若薇 31.6%(1席+14.9%)
楊森 27.4%(1席+11.7%)
范徐麗泰 23.6%(1席+6.9%浪費)
馬力 15.5%
--以下名單無人當選--
曾健成 1.3%
黃錦輝 0.7%

在這個民意調查中,我們應以沒配票的范徐麗泰做control.

這顯示了民建聯落後范太近8%,相對計即是50%,如民建聯有7萬票,范太最後應該有10萬票才對。

但是最後范太得出來的票數,比民建聯更少,這有2個可能性。

1. 范太說不配票給民建聯是講大話,跟本就係配左票。
2. 民建聯在最後階段出動的鐵票,比原先民意調查高近75%(追過了范太50%,另再加比范太多的25%)

從票數與百分比看(以范太作control),李柱銘告急,最多扯走了余若微原先20% 的票。大家應著眼為何民建聯在最後階段有這麼多票,而是之前民調看不到。

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