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Date Posted: 09/15/04 12:39:17am
Author: vmyers
Subject: Past just as good?

I ran into a retired AF meteorologist at work yesterday (I'm currently working as a front desk clerk at a local hotel)and we started discussing Ivan and forecasting. He's not a fan of the models, thinks they forecasted just as well back in the day. Brought up the point that once hurricanes reach Cat 4/5 they don't follow the steering currents or anything and therefore the models do no good anyways. I was amused that he had nothing good to say about models at all.

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Replies:

[> Re: Past just as good? -- ehokanson, 09/16/04 4:31:37pm [1]

I don't think that models are the AF's biggest problem when it comes to forecasting. It does look like forecasting accuracy in the AF is on the decline, but it is more likely to have something to do with a lack of experience in their forecasters. I don't know where exactly this comes from, but I was told that AF meteorologists in the last couple of decades average only a few years of service, and many of them do not come in with any sort of meteorology background. Back in the day, meteorologists served much longer terms, they got the experience, and their numbers got better. If anything, I think that models can make people lazy.

By the way, kudos to Billy for putting this site together!


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[> [> Re: Past just as good? -- reager, 09/21/04 9:42:59pm [1]

I don't know too much about AF forecasting and stuff, but I was at home for a funeral and talked to a guy who was in meteorology during WWII, and that was interesting. They did a very fast crash course in meteorology and then shipped them all over the place. And that was before really anything that we use today...satellite, radar, models, and most observations, except for some US obs. I think he said that William Reinquist (you know the Supreme Court Justice) had been in a meteorology program during the war for a while but didn't finish it.


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