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Subject: There Is No Santa Claus! Author: submitted by D.F. [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] Date Posted: 19:44:24 04/28/17 Fri There Is No Santa Claus! Posted April 28th, 2017 at 12:08 PM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Gold Premium. Even as a little kid in first grade I had the “my cousin Vinny” traits that allow me to sniff out BS. As Christmas approached, it was me who told the class “you realize there is no Santa Claus? It’s your parents you dummies!” Of course this led to boos, jeers, a 1st grade fight and of course one of many (to come) trips to the principal’s office. Many of the little kids didn’t like it but I was telling them the truth even if it did sting a bit. What we should look at today is real world versus the “story”. The story is and has been since 2008, “expansion” is just around the corner and just six months away. Year after year we have heard this but it has never come, nor will it until after financial collapse. I bring this up because the odds are now 70%+ the Fed raises rates again in June. The estimate for 1st quarter GDP came in at .7%. Understand this is an annualized number, so the quarter came in at under .2%… and the numbers themselves are bogus anyway. The bottom line is we almost assuredly declined for the quarter. We also recently posted a series of Fed Charts showing a definitive slowing of credit growth. This too is a chicken or the egg question, is credit growth slowing because the economy is slowing or is the economy contracting because credit growth has slowed? For the Fed to even contemplate tightening is insanity! THE very best source of economic numbers in my opinion is from John Williams. He is a bean counter extraordinaire with no ax to grind either way, you just get the truth as ugly as it may be. Needless to say, subscribing to his work is highly advised. His latest bullet points (and broken down for his subscribers): – Benchmarked Retail Sales Revised Higher with 2015 Survey Details, but Subsequent Annual Growth Revised Sharply Lower, to Date, Generating a New, Traditional Signal for Recession – Net of Inflation and Irregularly-Surging Commercial Aircraft Orders, the Headline Gain of 0.7% in March 2017 Durable Goods Orders Was 0.1%; Real Activity Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovered Stagnation – Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Rose in March, In the Continuing Context of Low-Level, Non-Recovered Stagnation – Despite Big Boost from Headline Drop in March CPI, March Real Median Household Income Was Statistically Unchanged, Still Holding Below January 2000 and Signaling Consumer Liquidity Stresses We show you this for a good reason, the real economy is now beginning another leg down while the “thermometers” (markets) have been broken so as not to reflect the reality. The news has been packed with “warnings” and none heeded. We’ve seen weak employment, weak GDP, scores of store closings, valuation warnings, trade wars and sabre rattling for real wars …no matter, everything is fine! To put a cherry on top of this, please go back and look again at the charts linked above, never forget the word runs on credit. Credit requires confidence. And without credit, I assure you the world will not turn. My point is this, “something” will finally make a difference and confidence will break. There are just too many instances where 2+2 does not equal 4 and people do not care because their “life” is not directly affected. Actually this is not quite so, life styles and living standards have been affected but very slowly. Slow enough so that no alarm bells have gone off. As I mentioned above, the “thermometers” have been purposely broken. The problem is the “reality”. Reality of boiling water scalds even if the thermometer reads room temperature. Jim and I mentioned “inflection points” a week or so back and this is exactly where we are. The real economy is turning down no matter how rigged the markets are. Credit is slowing and tightening as well as becoming “bad”. The old saying of how something collapsed comes to mind …”slowly at first and then all of a sudden”! We have bottom bounced since 2008 with rule changes and outright bogus reporting with smoke and mirrors. The downturn in credit (and thus the real economy) is here and most likely the reason “war” has become so imminent. We will hear “our policies were working and would have worked but then we went to war …”. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS any more than you believe in Santa Claus! Groundskeeping: my upcoming week is highly stressed for time so I may only get just one article out. I have business travel planned and will also go to see one of my best and dearest friends who is sick and dying. We will try to get the Saturday call done as normal but I may have to do it while driving or in an airport so please bear with us! Standing watch for a nation who believes in Santa Claus, Bill Holter Holter-Sinclair collaboration [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]