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Date Posted: 06:47:12 12/19/99 Sun
Author: theo
Subject: Y2k info

This was compiled and edited by another Blue One:

All the best to The Blue, if things go haywire...

************
Subject: N+N:The Essential Y2K

____ __ __ _____ -------------------------- _____ __ __ ____ |____/\//\//\_____ N E X I A L I S T N+E+W+S _____/\//\//\____| -------------------------

A NEXIALIST N+E+W+S FEATURE: THE Essential Y2K
from L. Reichard White
The truth *IS* out there. PREPARE!

"Prediction is very difficult, especially of the future." -Yogi Berra

"Senator you're quite correct in saying this [the Y2K Computer problem] is really a unique event and that we have no precedential capabilities of evaluating it. [i.e. We can't predict what will happen because we have no previous experience with anything like it. -LRW] -Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to Senate Banking Committee, 25 Feb 1998, 11:38am.

YOU CAN'T BE SERIOUS!

OTTAWA -- Prime Minister Jean Chretien's government will be on full Y2K alert New Year's Eve and ready to invoke an updated War Measures Act if needed, sources have told The Toronto Sun. The new law gives cabinet sweeping powers to issue whatever orders or regulations it believes are necessary to deal with emergencies such as major power outages caused by computer glitches or civil insurrections, major riots and prison revolts. *People can be arrested, including those who hoard supplies. It can also restrict travel. Failure to comply could lead to fines and prison terms of up to five years.* -MARK DUNN, Toronto Sun, Ottawa Bureau, Sweeping Y2K powers: Feds make secret plans for a crisis, December 7, 1999

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan, which has come under fire for not being prepared for major disasters, announced on Tuesday it would put tens of thousands of military personnel on alert at year-end to deal with possible millennium bug-related accidents. About 96,000 Self-Defense Forces staff will be on alert across the country for two days from New Year's Eve to deal with possible emergencies triggered by the Year 2000 (Y2K) computer glitches, officials at the Defense Agency said. The agency also plans to put more than 100 aircraft, warships and special vehicles on standby, and deploy several chemical warfare units, the officials said. -Japan to Put 96,000 Soldiers on Millennium Alert, Dec. 7, 1999

SNEAK PREVIEWS:

"The Y2K bug bit early in Oakland," according to a 9:00 PM news story. Several Oakland patrolmen got pay checks substantially below what they were due, one for $.01, while one upper management cop got a check of over $300,000 for two weeks work. The problem was blamed on human error coupled with the introduction of a new Y2K compliant software program. -Los Angeles Channel 9, November 25, 1999.
PHILADELPHIA As many as 500 people got notices telling them to show up for jury duty in 1900 an error caused by the so-called Y2K bug in city court computers. "Yes, after all the work that was done to avoid this, it happened," city Jury Commissioner Michael J. McAllister told the Philadelphia Daily News. -The Associated Press, Y2K Bug Shows Up in Philadelphia, Saturday, Nov. 27, 1999; 12:43 p.m. EST

... there was also a separate event that knocked down the Chicago Board of Trade, which involved a computer communications disruption. That problem, which most of us Y2K computer geeks watched with fascination, was apparently a single failure of a single system, which apparently involved two vendors (MCI and Lucent). And it did far more than just shut down the Chicago Board of Trade; hundreds of organizations, and thousands of individuals, were severely affected. Now imagine what it would be like if we had to deal with dozens, or hundreds, or thousands of more-or-less simultaneous occurrences of such problems. By the way, that problem took much longer than the much ballyhooed "three day winter storm" period of time to fix; and I suspect that the only reason it was fixed as quickly as it was (roughly 8-10 days, as I recall) is that the teams of computer wizards at MCI and Lucent were not being distracted by a dozen other disruptions around the country. -from Ed Yourdon's Open Letter in response to Alan Greenspan's September 17, 1999 remarks to the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, September 19, 1999 [N+N reprise]

Statistically, when a medium/large organization has a major loss of IT [information technology] capability, 50% declare bankruptcy within a month and fully 90% declare bankruptcy within a year. Essentially, a major IT failure means the end of the business, even under the ideal conditions of a fully functional economy, with readily available capital to borrow for recovery. -Y2000@Infomagic.com, Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 44 "November 3, 1998 - 423 days to go." WRP100 Draft $2.50 Cover Price.

OIL:

OIL IS OFTEN OVERLOOKED ...The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns "vulnerabilities still exist at all levels of the oil supply chain." [1] A survey by Gartner Group revealed U.S. companies have "not been providing accurate disclosures" on their Y2K risks. The IEA says this could have "serious implications" for oil supplies. [2] Another oil industry observer expects "multiple embedded systems going down on each oil well" with no parts or replacement systems available "for quite a long while." [3] -Terry Cottam, Ottawa, Canada, Revised, expanded from an article for Peace and Environment News, Oct 1999

NOTE: IEA has since revealed plans for global rationing of oil reserves. -Reuters (London), November 30, 1999.

Oil is the giveaway clue. It has doubled in just a few months. ...The evidence is overwhelming for those willing to dig & then to believe what they find. Oil production & refining, due to Y2K unfixed & unfixable embedded chip systems, in every nation, will almost certainly suffer acutely. I forecast a drop in production of approximately 20%, & 25-30% is not unlikely. Many oil men admit privately they're scared & most confess Y2K compliance is impossible so they're on a FOF program (Fix-On-Failure). ... Chevron tells SEC [Securites and Exchange Commission]: "It's impractical to eliminate all potential Y2K problems before they arise." Shell says "no precedent exists as to the manner in which to fully detect & eliminate Y2K risks." + Exxon says critical operations or delivery failures may occur in the first few wks of 2000. And "Disruptions can't be reasonably estimated." Mobil tells SEC (but not the public): "There are an almost infinite number of additional risks which are simply not assessable & for which therefore contingency plans can't be developed." And "A combination of failures could have a material adverse effect on Mobil's results of operations, liquidity &/or financial condition." Texaco says much the same as the others. Their PR depts however sing a different song. + ... Oil must be pumped, delivered (eg, by tankers & pipelines) & refined. All 3 processes are extremely Y2K- vulnerable. ... If U recall it was an oil supply drop of only 6% in 1973 that resulted in the sharp 1973-74 recession & mkt crash of those years. An oil supply cut of 20% guarantees a depression, not a recession. Most oil comes from 3rd world nations which all agree are not Y2K-ready. But neither are US oil producers. If U are a raging optimist, cut my projection in half, to 10%. That's still far worse than 1973-74 recession's cause. And this time stock mkts are in la-la land, making them capable of folding the global house of financial cards. -Harry Schultz, The International Harry Schultz Letter - September 7, 1999

NOTE: Harry Schultz, according to the Guinness Book of Records (International Editions: 1981-1997) is the world's highest-paid investment consultant.
BANKING:

4. ... There will be system failures, especially in large, old, richly interconnected "systems of systems" as exist in the *FINANCIAL SERVICES* and government sector. -IEEE, June 9, 1999 [N+N reprise -- see "FULL IEEE REFERENCE:" below.]

...I mean for example, *WE HAD A VERY MAJOR BANK IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK A NUMBER OF YEARS AGO -- COMPUTER WENT OUT. AND THE NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE BANK HAD TO LEND THEM OVER 20 BILLION DOLLARS OVER-NIGHT.* Now if we [the Federal Reserve -LRW] weren't there, I can tell you that the system would have been in VERY serious difficulty. -Alan Greenspan to Senate Banking Committee, 25 Feb 1998 [caps & bolding emphasis added. -LRW] [N+N reprise]

The [economic] situation is not likely to change for the better given the global electronic infrastructure which will be at severe risk of collapse in the coming year. Commonly called The Year 2000 (Y2K) Problem, it threatens most financial institutions especially on the international level. The computer omission of the century digits from dates has erected computational ambiguities that corrupt individual computer systems and then multiply to endanger inter-related systems. It is quite certain that many millions of computer systems around the globe will fail at the beginning of the new millenium, which will have a serious impact on the ability to conduct business. It is likely to deflate all financial bubbles. -Hans F. Sennholz, 10/28/99 [N+N reprise]

In 1982 Knoxville hosted a worlds fair. One FDIC insured bank, United American Bank, bankrolled huge loans for support of the fair. Many of the loans were ill conceived, and resulted in default. Shortly after the end of the fair the FDIC reviewed the books at United American Bank, and closed it. ... other banks had made large loans to United American Bank. Three of these were the City and County Bank of Anderson county, City and County Bank of Knox Country, and a very old bank called the Southern Industrial Banking Corporation. *What resulted was cascading defaults. Since each of these banks had big loans between them, and were creditors of United American bank, once United American Bank closed their doors, they suddenly were bankrupt as well.* ... *THE RESULT WAS A DOMINO EFFECT IN WHICH SHORTLY AFTER UNITED AMERICAN BANK CLOSED THE OTHER BANKS FOLLOWED SUIT* ...Everyone who had any money in SBIC lost all their money. The Knoxville Case, 1982 [N+N reprise]

1. Access to the [IMF (International Monetary Fund) Y2K] facility is available for balance of payments needs arising from Y2K-related problems arising in either the current or capital account of a country's balance of payments. There is no restriction on the type of problem that might qualify for Y2K financing under the facility, other than that it should be identifiable as Y2K related and should generate a balance of payments need. *Examples of possible problems that might affect a country's current account in its balance of payments could include, (i) interruption to shipping, (ii) interruption to government services, (iii) shutdown of oil pipelines, or (iv) export-related factory shutdowns. Problems may also arise in the capital account of a country' balance of payments. Such problems could result, for example, from failure of financial sector computerized transaction registration systems, or from a general withdrawal or withholding of capital related to fear of possible Y2K problems.* Capital account problems related to latter concerns could occur in anticipation of the New Year, or subsequently on the basis of actual events. -IMF News Brief No. 99/79, December 3, 1999 [Bolding emphasis added -LRW]

NOTE: IMF is the US Treasury-backed international lending/enforcement branch of the World Bank, which makes loans, backed largely by U.S. taxpayers, to governments world wide. Many claim IMF bumbling exacerbated if not actually caused the so-called "Asian contagion" world-wide monetary crisis. Current U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers recently ended his tenure as IMF Chief Economist. -LRW

PROGNOSIS:

4.1 Y2K IS A LONG TERM, NOT SHORT TERM, PROBLEM. ... *Y2K COMPUTER PROBLEMS WILL BE CAUSING COMPUTER SYSTEM MALFUNCTIONS AND FAILURES FOR YEARS INTO THE NEXT DECADE.* ... Because of the vast amounts of these [dates spanning the century boundary], the complex intertwining among them and our less than complete understanding of the whole, it will take years for the infrastructure to "calm down" after Y2K impacts themselves AND the impacts of the sometimes frantic and misguided changes we have made to it. *THE CURRENT PREVENTION PHASE IS ONLY THE BEGINNING*. -IEEE, June 9, 1999 [N+N reprise -- see "FULL IEEE REFERENCE:" below.]

For the bulls [optimists] to be right, we must somehow magically move from a historical on-time project success rate of less than 15% to a success rate for Y2K projects of at least 90 - 95%. -PART 2: THE DEVOLUTIONARY SPIRAL by Y2000@Infomagic.com

"The one thing I can tell you with certainty about the year 2000 is that it will arrive on schedule." -Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
PRESCRIPTION:

4. ... *WE SHOULD BE ASKING OURSELVES HOW WE AS A SOCIETY CAN BEST KEEP THE FLOW OF GOODS AND SERVICES GOING UNTIL THE TECHNICAL PROBLEMS AND FAILURES CAN BE OVERCOME.* -IEEE, June 9, 1999 [N+N reprise -- see "FULL IEEE REFERENCE:" below.]

It is self-evident truth that it is better to be prepared than not be prepared. Wake up!! -tedw, y2K DENIAL (12/11/99; 18:05:25MDT - Msg ID:20774)



* * - Permission to re-post granted. Re-posting encouraged! - * *

NOTICE: In compliance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed free without profit or payment for non-profit research and educational purposes only. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml

[1] International Energy Agency, "Update on the IEA's Y2K Activities," July 1999

[2] International Energy Agency, "IEA Working Paper: The Year 2000 Problem and the Oil Industry, Preliminary Findings," Mar 1999

[3] Gold-Eagle - The Internet's Premier Financial Magazine, Oil and Natural Gas: Are They the Real Problems in Y2K? - Jun 21, 1999

FULL IEEE REFERENCE: The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., IEEE Year 2000 Technical Information Focus Group Open Letter To: Members, Senate Commerce, Science And Transportation Committee; Members, Special Senate Committee On The Year 2000 Technology Problem; Members, House of Representatives, Com. on Science, Subcom. on Technology, [etc.] June 9, 1999 ..

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