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Date Posted: 14:08:16 09/13/04 Mon
Author: crit racer
Subject: Re: Floyd Ullrich or Jan Landis?
In reply to: ChrisH 's message, "Re: Floyd Ullrich or Jan Landis?" on 13:16:40 09/13/04 Mon

>>As a matter of interest, ChrisH, are you watching this
>>or are you relying on live tickers?
>
>I almost always rely on internet sources, but if
>possible I watch the big stages and purchase the DVDs.
>(My favorite aspect of cycling is the strategy and
>tactics and you get much more information from the
>'puter than from the TV.)

Part of your problem, my friend, is that races are run on roads, not on paper.

I should say on "paper" since you rely so much on the internet by your own admission.

On "paper," the 2004 Tour was a Tour for Heras and Mayo. You predicted Heras would podium at minimum. We all know what happened.

You probably miss 90% of what is important in your reliance on the internet, on looking at gradients, reading Michele Ferrari articles, etc.

Just one example of something that is missing from all your PRECIOUS data is the fact that Heras tends to be frail both health-wise and emotionally. He's going to wake up one morning within the next week and realize he's not even the best rider on Liberty Seguros. And when he's out there battling on a tough stage and the doubts creep in, he'll be done. Or perhaps the stress of it all will simply lead to his getting sick. Those are possibilities. May not happen but it could. Even if they don't, he isn't that strong now, whatever the reasons.

So again, races are run on the roads, not on paper. That said, I totally disagree with your analysis anyway, as well as your comments about Heras's current form. Heras has lost some of his acceleration and one thing that was obvious in his years at Postal was that Heras could not adapt to adverse conditions at all, thus his inconsistency or perhaps I should say consistently inconsistent. :-) Seriously, Heras has trouble really getting away now and sustaining it, it's obvious, he looks more like Tyler Hamilton trying to attack in the 2002 Giro than the Best of Heras: The Hits from the past.

There are far more ways Heras could lose this Vuelta than win it.

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