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Date Posted: 17:53:38 09/02/04 Thu
Author: LAHobo
Subject: Re: Vuelta favorites?
In reply to: dura ace 's message, "Re: Vuelta favorites?" on 16:55:38 09/02/04 Thu

>Huh? I didn't post any analysis of USPS's motives.

I interpreted the use of USPS as an example of a team acquiring someone to keep him away from a rival team as attributing motive to USPS. I must have misinterpreted it if that wasn't your intent.

>>I doubt USPS ever thought of Heras
>>as a serious threat.
>
>I didn't say they did. But it certainly is a
>possibility. Another is that, as I suggested, they
>wanted Heras on their side as opposed to being on a
>rival's side.

Anything's possible. I just don't think it was a major concern.

>You are overlooking the fact that it is the Tour
>organizers who design the parcours, not Armstrong and
>Bruyneel. Some Tours in the past had as many as FIVE
>flat time trials. Armstrong and Bruyneel could never
>have known, especially back in 2000 when they brought
>Heras on board, what the routes would be like in
>subsequent years.

The general framework of the Tour hasn't changed much in recent years. Several hard mountain stages, several (often long) time trials, many flat stages. True, the organizers could dramatically change the course in future years but you don't spend a significant part of your team budget just in case that happens.

>Armstrong never got much support from Heras in the
>high mountains. Of course they couldn't have known
>that ahead of time, but I think they moved so quickly
>on Heras's potential to have him on board as opposed
>to a rival having him.

Unless they think he can win there was no reason to be concerned about him going to a rival. It is doubtful that anybody else had the credentials to sign a rider of Heras' calibre to be a domestique.

> Postal never really needed
>Heras, I think they knew it from the beginning

I disagree completely. In both 1999 and 2000 Armstrong was totally isolated in the mountains on a regular basis. They've gone on to sign guys like Rubiera, Beltran, and Azevedo for the same purpose.

>again he didn't provide much consistent support
>(Rubiera was the better domestique)

As you said, they didn't know that at the time. Heras had much better climbing credentials than Rubiera.

>, but they also
>didn't want the little climber being used by a rival
>to attack Lance. This is what companies do sometimes,
>they buy something up to keep a competitor from having
>it.

I guess I just don't think USPS was all that concerned with Heras as a rival, and I don't think anyone else could have signed him as a domestique.

>>I don't know how you can draw that conclusion. If
>>Saiz thought Nozal had more potential than Heras I
>>don't see any reason he would bring in Heras and have
>>Nozal be his domestique for both the Tour and Vuelta.
>>Just doesn't seem logical to me.
>
>Huh? The word potential means what it means. It
>doesn't mean Nozal is there yet today.

I would agree if Nozal was 22 and came in 10th. As it was, Nozal only lost to Heras by 28 seconds. If Saiz had thought that Nozal was still improving I don't see any way he would relegate him to domestique status for both the Vuelta and Tour.

>Look at Heras
>himself. He WON the Vuelta, then was a domestique at
>USPS for years.

Yeah, but he was only a domestique for the Tour but was the team leader for the Vuelta. I seriously doubt Heras would have signed with Postal to be domestique for both races.

>Nozal is in no way, shape, or form a
>rider yet that Saiz is gonna feel he can put his
>entire team behind, especially in the Tour.

If Saiz thought he was still improving why not? He only lost the Vuelta by 28 seconds and, in theory, the Tour should be more suited to him than Heras, due to its longer time trials.

The fact that Saiz didn't think he could put his team behind Nozal in favor of an older guy who barely beat him definitely suggests to me that Saiz realizes that last years Vuelta performance was a fluke.

You disagree. No big deal. I've enjoyed the debate.

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