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Date Posted: 08:30:58 09/03/04 Fri
Author: dura ace
Subject: Re: Vuelta favorites?
In reply to: LAHobo 's message, "Re: Vuelta favorites?" on 17:53:38 09/02/04 Thu

>>>I doubt USPS ever thought of Heras
>>>as a serious threat.
>>
>>I didn't say they did. But it certainly is a
>>possibility. Another is that, as I suggested, they
>>wanted Heras on their side as opposed to being on a
>>rival's side.
>
>Anything's possible. I just don't think it was a
>major concern.

Much more likely than your scenario though, that USPS felt they actually needed Heras.

>>Armstrong never got much support from Heras in the
>>high mountains. Of course they couldn't have known
>>that ahead of time, but I think they moved so quickly
>>on Heras's potential to have him on board as opposed
>>to a rival having him.
>
>Unless they think he can win there was no reason to be
>concerned about him going to a rival. It is doubtful
>that anybody else had the credentials to sign a rider
>of Heras' calibre to be a domestique.

Cycling is not the black and white world you seem to think it is. Just because Heras may not have been able to beat Armstrong doesn't mean that he couldn't have hurt him in the mountains in the right context. Most of the Armstrong years have been marked by a near total lack of attacking by his rivals, a fact you seem to overlook. Pantani did it, and made USPS work, but it ultimately proved suicidal. But that kind of attacking on a team that has another G.C. threat CAN do damage.

>
>> Postal never really needed
>>Heras, I think they knew it from the beginning
>
>I disagree completely. In both 1999 and 2000
>Armstrong was totally isolated in the mountains on a
>regular basis. They've gone on to sign guys like
>Rubiera, Beltran, and Azevedo for the same purpose.

You are proving my point. Help in the mountains for Armstrong has mostly been overrated over the years, overall. In 1999 he lost his main mountain domestique, Jonathan Vaughters, on the second day of the Tour. Hamilton and Livingston were able to pick up the slack. In 2000, Hamilton and Livingston by comparison were not as good. Guess what, Armstrong still won. Heras and Rubiera were brought in, and again Heras overall was of limited help in the mountains, compared to expectations, during his tenure at USPS.

There is just nothing to support your theory that USPS felt they really had to have Heras in order to win the Tour. Most of the evidence suggests the contrary. Thus their wanting to keep a danger man away from some other potential rival is the more likely scenario. USPS was able to more easily control things not having to worry about someone like Heras attacking Lance left and right. Note that USPS was also very relieved this year to not have to worry about Vinokourov.

>
>>again he didn't provide much consistent support
>>(Rubiera was the better domestique)
>
>As you said, they didn't know that at the time. Heras
>had much better climbing credentials than Rubiera.

They didn't know he'd largely prove to be a bust. But that does not mean they really felt they needed Heras in order to win the Tour.

>
>>, but they also
>>didn't want the little climber being used by a rival
>>to attack Lance. This is what companies do sometimes,
>>they buy something up to keep a competitor from having
>>it.
>
>I guess I just don't think USPS was all that concerned
>with Heras as a rival, and I don't think anyone else
>could have signed him as a domestique.

Again, think outside the box. I repeat, it's not necessarily an Armstrong vs. Heras situation. But pair Heras with another strong rider and they could have made things more difficult for USPS than things were in recent years. All you have to do is look at 2003, when guys really started attacking Armstrong.

>
>>>I don't know how you can draw that conclusion. If
>>>Saiz thought Nozal had more potential than Heras I
>>>don't see any reason he would bring in Heras and have
>>>Nozal be his domestique for both the Tour and
>Vuelta.
>>>Just doesn't seem logical to me.
>>
>>Huh? The word potential means what it means. It
>>doesn't mean Nozal is there yet today.
>
>I would agree if Nozal was 22 and came in 10th. As it
>was, Nozal only lost to Heras by 28 seconds. If Saiz
>had thought that Nozal was still improving I don't see
>any way he would relegate him to domestique status for
>both the Vuelta and Tour.

The Vuelta is not the Tour. Lately, very few Vuelta WINNERS have even reached the top 5 in the Tour. So Nozal's finishing second in a Vuelta that suited him pretty well doesn't mean he's anywhere near ready to be a serious contender in the Tour. As it is, Heras himself was a total bust this year. Do not look to the Vuelta to give you an idea of how a rider will do in the Tour.

>
>>Look at Heras
>>himself. He WON the Vuelta, then was a domestique at
>>USPS for years.
>
>Yeah, but he was only a domestique for the Tour but
>was the team leader for the Vuelta. I seriously doubt
>Heras would have signed with Postal to be domestique
>for both races.

Who said anything about Heras being a domestique for both races?

>
>>Nozal is in no way, shape, or form a
>>rider yet that Saiz is gonna feel he can put his
>>entire team behind, especially in the Tour.
>
>If Saiz thought he was still improving why not? He
>only lost the Vuelta by 28 seconds and, in theory, the
>Tour should be more suited to him than Heras, due to
>its longer time trials.

Again, because the Vuelta is not the Tour. Heras has won the Vuelta twice now and finished second. He also has a 4th place finish in the Tour which lately is more indicative of a quality rider than winning the Vuelta. Nozal's second place in the Vuelta really is not a good predictor of success in the Tour.

>
>The fact that Saiz didn't think he could put his team
>behind Nozal in favor of an older guy who barely beat
>him definitely suggests to me that Saiz realizes that
>last years Vuelta performance was a fluke.

Saiz wants first and foremost to win the Tour. Heras has proved more there than Nozal has. It doesn't matter that Heras barely beat Nozal. He did beat him, and that after riding support (albeit limited) in the Tour.

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