Re: help (HT), anyone -- Bucknell Bison Sports

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Subject: Re: help (HT), anyone

Author:
eric...

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Date Posted: 14:03:03 12/09/05 Fri
In reply to: KenZ 's message, "Re: help (HT), anyone" on 09:06:45 12/09/05 Fri

if toan were a basketball player, hed be a five star recruit. i cannot say the same thing of myself. and bucknell actually does recruit math majors... kinda. they have a math competition for high school students every march (usually the friday of spring break). four trips to lewisburg for me. cant say the university won me with them, but it certainly didnt hurt.

anyway, i just did some very, very rough math on our chances at an at-large... so in honor of being honored, here it is.

five times in the past seven years the highest rated team to get an at-large had an rpi of 40 or greater. consequently, i went with 40 as the needed number for the bison to get an invite, meaning bucknell would need an rpi of around 0.580. what follows is a list of possible records and an approximation of the required strength of schedule bucknell would then need:

27-2: 248
26-3: 213
25-4: 187
24-5: 156
23-6: 130

last year bucknells strength of schedule ranked as the 164th most difficult in the country. it is too early to calculate what bucknells number could be this year based on rpi, so i went with pomeroys for last year and this year to compare the schedules. last year, including the patriot league tournament, the bison opponents averaged 195.39 in the pomeroy. this year, known opponents have an average pomeroy of 190. filling in santa clara, iona (my current bracket buster guess), and the three likely opponents in the tournament (right now, army, american and holy cross) the number drops to approximately 188.97. because of this difference, i would say that it is pretty likely bucknell should manage to finish at least 156th and with some patriot league help potentially as high at 130th in the sos this year.

so, yeah. if bucknell wins 25 games they are in. 24 and they are probably in. 23 and theyve got a shot. of course, a win over duke would go a long way, as well.

i will do an in-depth analysis once nonconference play is essentially over and our conference rpi is more or less in place.

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