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| Subject: Author Topic: Opinions on ERG trading aspect sought | |
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Author: A Simple Moving Average Trading System - 3x13x39 |
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Date Posted: Saturday, November 01, 08:41:17am In reply to: med av special= 949217849832.3 by Steve at 22/7/2003Correction exact low 92- 29/7/03BK--Steve 20/8/03 by internet connection cut off 's message, "Nasdaq analysis Oct1st by Nadsaq countentry patternOct1st" on Friday, October 31, 10:03:02am Author Topic: Opinions on ERG trading aspect sought bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 09-09-2003 03:02 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Opinions on ERG trading aspect sought--I'm fairly well versed on the fundamentals--in both the immediate and all embracing sense, I combine it with chart. Be interested to hear any ideas or points of view others may have.---BK. IP: Logged G Full Member Posts: 490 From: NSW, Australia Registered: Jun 2001 posted 09-09-2003 09:51 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERG has higher lows, but has no higher highs, and is under 180EMA What it means to me, that while interesting, charts shows some dangers that sideways-downtrend move can continue. For those who cannot resist to dip their toes into possible breakout, it’s OK but with sound money management. Stop loss should not be lower than 0.73 For me, paper stop loss will be 0.86 today (after joining recent lows to draw possible up-trend line) Just my thoughts, not recommendations. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 09-09-2003 04:59 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thankyou for your reply--I've done sork on the 82-Market Mad have recently brought (3/9/03) out a report on ERG--mentioning the 82 figure.I won't post the report for it is copyright, it does state in opinion bullish atop 82. -------------------------------------------- On the 30/10/02 P Fogarty sold 125.000 shares for a consideration of 21,609,80 17.50008 exchanging it into 4,763 convertible notes at a ratio of 90 to 1 ERGG which traded as Ergda (along with everyone elses) with adding up all the lows while it traded ad doing a median average working out to be 76.8 ERG traded at the same time as ERGN adding up all the lows and then doing a median average of it over that period 8.42.12/6/03 ERGN adding up all the lows and doing a median average 8.39 Adding them all together and doing a median average of all three figures 76.8 divide 10= 7.68 8.42 and 8.39 =24.490000000000002 dividing by 3 =8.163333333333334 x 10=81.63333333333334c per share--##rounded 82c## Regards,--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 10-09-2003 12:12 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NTA minus 17 31/12/02-reported March 03 This report coming up 12/9--approximately a dollar--Melbourne Age 17/7/03. I rang Pattersons and while they wouldn't give me the exact figure they did confirm approx 1 dollar--the below calc is one I've done--based on the number of shares given by the entity on the 23/6/03 9756898573080499. (writedowns within the next report coming up--the salient thing is though--confined to the 03 year--ERG is profitable with a clean balance sheet--forward from June 30th 03. The company will report a loss--coming up--it will however show an enourmous improvement on the last result and will be running profitable for fy4. Regards,--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 11-09-2003 02:03 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.sharesguru.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4687&highlight=#4687 SanFran 2 MTC votes late September--they next meet on September 24--American time. http://www.mtc.ca.gov/whats_happening/meetings/mtgsched.htm 9/24/03 Wednesday 10:10 a.m. Metropolitan Transportation Commission MetroCenter Auditorium Regards,--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 11-09-2003 02:11 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- An institution recently sold ERG--the selling was completed on the 5/9/03--the average price it sold at was 92c--a range of prices---92 was the average.--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 12-09-2003 03:46 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NTA 36c as at 30/6/2003---expects to receive notice to phase 2 shortly San Fran.--12/9Expect to return to profitability--for 04 year--over the full twelve months. Initial reaction positive to financials by market. 75 million in cash to be received Lazio Rome over the 04 year--remainder 25 mill fy5. 48.3 mill in writedowns contained within fy3--various assets --make provisions dimunition in value a number of current and non current assets.The largest of writedowns is 15.4m in costs previously capitalised against various projects. In market depth as I write support has formed from 91c up--the time of writing is 02:38 pm, 12 September 2003--469,500 .91. The Lazio Rome agreement is subsequent to the end of fy3--30/6/03. A Meaningful Market Move for a stock index is between 3% and 5%. It has resistance at a dollar. 17/7/03-931445603576751117734724292101341 Institution finished selling 5/9/03 average it sold at was 92c IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 13-09-2003 04:59 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is how I make out things as they stand going forward as of this minute. There maybe some alterations to this later (lol)--just some calcs --------------------------------------------- The Group made a full year loss of 198.3 million financial year 3-30/6/02 to the 30/6/03 reported the 12/9/03 -- Syd-12 September 2003 8.30am - 9.30am--Mel-12 September 2003 3.30pm - 4.30pm Within financial year 3 result 30/6/02 to the 30/6/03 ----114.2 million in significant and non operating items.--Difference equals 84.1 million 114.2 million in significant -- and non operating items.--65.9 million relates to the first half of fy 3--30/6/02 to the 30/6/03 -- 48.3 million relates to the 2nd half of FY3 13.7 million received from the sale of Proton post June 30th 2003 -- 12/9/03,1st half loss 124.9 million full fy3 year loss 198.3 million--difference between 1st and 2nd half 73.4million--2nd half 48.3 mill writedowns,(The largest of writedowns is 15.4m in costs previously capitalised against various projects.)73.4 mill minus 48.3 millequals 25.1 million operating loss, reducing 25.1m--1st half F/Y4--25.1 minus 7.5 mill saving amortisation (6months) = 17.6 million---minus 6 months savings note interest 9.375mill (normally payable October 1st) = 8.375 mill - loss, 8.375 minus one off restructuring and advisory redundancy 7.1 mill = 1.275 mill loss-- minus one months saving depreciation Lazio (6.8 mill p/a) (contracts signed within two months of September 3rd)566.000 = 709.000 loss, 30/6/03 interest paid and borrowing costs 13,671---subsequent to the end of financial year ERG received from Proton sale 13.7-- 709.000 loss + 13.7 =12,999,991,000 profit.--1st half FY4. (The written down project costs would also add (in a substantial way) to the situation--assuming ERG win all contracts that were hampering profitability--San Francisco so forth by December 31st) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I feel I've made a mistake with the above--for ERG received from April capitilisation--9.375m (at least it saved that amount of money--by issuing the shares instead of paying the interest)--so that is included in the recent result--so therefore I may have to subtract it again for 1st half fy4--12,999,991,000 minus 9.375 mill =3,624,991--profit The largest of writedowns 15.4m----3,624,991 plus 15.4m equals 19,024991000--profit The only thing wrong with the above is ERG themselves have stated they expect to be profitable in the 2nd half of FY4--not the first half--so the above calcs would exceed what they have officially stated. I for one am sick of arguing with Shaun-(on the odd time I have spoken with him about financials--several times over the past year)-LOL--for I say to him I think you are going to make a profit--and he disputes it with me each time ---invariably he is correct--I do truly believe the above--unless I've done something wrong. San Francisco wouldn't get into full swing till 2nd half--ERG does though receive money up front--it being outsourced--so it would get that sum 1st half.)International newspaper clippings MTC website and company announcement section (re Cubic and it's court delay) clearly state ERG have received some payments already in relation to Translink 1. ---BK IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 14-09-2003 04:11 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The salient thing is--much of what has been written above is home economics--and you have to take it in that measure--what you read is free.! LOL--below statement is 100% accurate and true. ------------------------------------------- With clean balance sheet and no further writedowns there is nothing to impede ERG making a profit, the only thing needed to occur is sufficient margin on revenue and the earnings coming from that to extract a profit. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 14-09-2003 11:57 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Below isn't the freshest article in international news clippings--I think though if you read carefully the words in minute detail--it decribes the current situation regrding San Francisco--this article is dated August 30th.--Two transit agencies (the main ones) were hanging out for better deals--I think Muni may have been resolved--last one to go is Bart. There is an error in the below article---##the MTC next meet on September 24th American time (25th Australian time)##---not the 25th--as the article states---refer MTC website. http://www.bayarea.com/mld/cctimes/news/6655172.htm ###Posted on Sat, Aug. 30, 2003### BART's TransLink balk has cards faring poorly By Lisa Vorderbrueggen CONTRA COSTA TIMES BART leaders have rejected a deal that would have ended the transit agency's dispute over the operation of TransLink, the region's first universal fare card The agency won several concessions but the elected directors sought stronger assurances that TransLink managers would retrofit ticket vending machines in BART's stations. The draft accord between the top managers of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission and BART consented to a retrofit but did not guarantee a source of cash to pay for it. "Our customers must have the ability to add fare on their TransLink cards inside BART stations," said BART Director Dan Richard of Walnut Creek. BART on Thursday sent its staff back to the negotiating table with the commission, which manages TransLink. ###It rescheduled the matter for its Sept. 25 meeting.### The directors also asked staffers to evaluate what Richard called serious allegations of problems with the management of TransLink and its contractor, Australia-based ERG. "I don't want to spend millions of dollars retrofitting BART ticket machines for a card that never comes," Richard said. Commission spokesman Randy Rentschler assured commuters that TransLink will open. But BART's action further delays the start date. The commission had hoped to open TransLink within the year on selected transit systems and within two years on most agencies. TransLink cards feature an embedded computer chip that commuters wave past a reader, which triggers a computer to deduct fares from prepaid accounts. The commission had intended to open TransLink first on Golden Gate buses and ferries, followed by San Francisco MUNI, AC Transit, CalTrain and Santa Clara Valley Transit. The commission has already ordered the equipment from ERG. Its staff has scheduled ####a board vote in late September to officially proceed with installation.#### But without BART, estimated to generate a third of TransLink users, the farecard program is unlikely to go anywhere. Worried about more delay, MTC Commissioner Mark DeSaulnier of Concord has ###requested a high-level negotiation session next week.### "After all this time for BART to try and pull the plug simply cannot happen," said DeSaulnier, also a Contra Costa County supervisor. "We have to all get together in the same room and fix this." IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 14-09-2003 12:26 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/stock_price_enum?Symbol=_INX Standard and Poors--held 1007.71--September 12th.-Cubic verses NSW September 15th ##this Monday Supreme Court N.S.W.##-Fed meet Sept 16th--(Sept 17th Oz time) Triple Witch September 19th Sept 20th--Oz time. Sep 12 2003 1,019.65 low---##1,007.71## 1,018.63 177,900 Aug6-34 days Sept8-retrace 15% = 1012.3075 23.6%=1007.1008 38.2 =998.2599 50% = 991.115 61.8 = 983.9701 82.5 = 971.432625 low Aug 6 960.84--to the low of Sept 8th 1021.39---34 days including the days themselves--60.55 points--low to low 1553 x 61.8%=959.754Aug 6th--low960.84 http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$GSPTEHW Standard and Poors--Technology Hardware--$GSPTEHW Alert ascending triple top breakout Traditional 3 box reversal chart. Intellect Cleans Up Balance Sheet--11 Sep 2003 trading at 44 cents, down 0.5 cents.after tax loss of A$18 million for the year ended June 2003. The index as a whole http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$SPX Alert double top breakout Sept 11--technology was up in lights it has recently declined. 200 day moving average Standard and Poors 925--Sept 10 American time 200 day moving average 104 100 day moving average --90.4 3 days--90.9 13 days 90.3 39 days 91.8 40 days 92.2 50 days 92.5 -------------------- 36 days--Standard and Poors--Aug 6th to Sept 10th--90.7 34 days S&P 90.2 _________________ IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 14-09-2003 12:39 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Much to my chagrin--I'd like others to know so you don't experience what I've experienced!.LOL--The sharetrend is cyclical--at this stage the reconstruction process still places some negativity on the share price (depends of your point of view--with deep pockets you may see the negativity as a buying opportunity--for others it maybe painfull!)--you then have on your cycles--shorter term--intermediate and longer term--the estimation is--it will begin to look more like a trending stock--say about mid December--one important level--to eventually break through--and not only break through--but manage to stay over is 115. I'm the worlds lousiest trader of it--I appear good--but I'm not.---BK. IP: Logged G Full Member Posts: 490 From: NSW, Australia Registered: Jun 2001 posted 14-09-2003 06:00 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have on my chart an entry: QUICK entered 23 Jan 2001 at $2.76 So if you got in later much later, you are sort of OK I suppose. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 15-09-2003 12:42 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thankyou for your input much appreciated---below is a Supreme Court Daily Court list--Cubic verses NSW--I just rang them--general enquiries is 92308111---I don't think the file has been submitted yet--so the person I spoke to said to ring back tomorrow--to find out--how it has progressed--which I will do--will post back with an update of what I find out.--Regards,--BK. Daily Court Lists/ 15/09/2003 040720/02 10.30am below Cubic and NSW.---poss. The Supreme Court of New South Wales Daily Court Lists -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Court List for Date: 15/09/2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- S U P R E M E C O U R T O F N E W S O U T H W A L E S Monday, 15 September 2003 C O U R T O F A P P E A L CHIEF JUSTICE SPIGELMAN JUSTICE HANDLEY JUSTICE (ACTING) FOSTER BANCO COURT, LEVEL 13, QUEENS SQUARE HEARING 10:30am 1 040720/02 CUBIC TRANSPORTATIONS v STATE OF NSW & 2 ORS SYSTEMS INC & 1 ORS IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 15-09-2003 01:09 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On another note--the first appearance of 1 dollar investment view---and reaction to 2nd half of FY3 year. It is copyright so I've just put the header in.----BK. Aegis Equities Research View: Company Risk: Share Price Risk: Ethical Rating: Technical Rating: n/a In Rec. Portfolio: No 12 Month Target: $1.00 Recommendation: Hold IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 15-09-2003 05:04 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net assets based on 267,503,037 shares on issue given by the company on the 23/6/03-divided by 198,715 =equals 74.285--74.3c rounded.---for end 30/6/03--reported 12/9/03 --------------------------- [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] |
| Subject | Author | Date |
| The low is recorded on the 25/6/03 as 7.3 x 10=73 the vwap 74.37--ERGDA | The low for yesterday 15/9/03--was 92c--this is not recorded by some data gatherers. | Saturday, November 01, 08:42:42am |
| Its a hostile thing with trading is it?--with the IP protocol game-- posted 02-11-2003 03:25 AM | with the IP protocol game--what you break confidentiality and consumer laws here as well do you? Additional to stockhouse--GO GET YOURSELF ****ED | Saturday, November 01, 08:48:54am |