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| Subject: The low is recorded on the 25/6/03 as 7.3 x 10=73 the vwap 74.37--ERGDA | |
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Author: The low for yesterday 15/9/03--was 92c--this is not recorded by some data gatherers. |
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Date Posted: Saturday, November 01, 08:42:42am In reply to: med av special= 949217849832.3 by Steve at 22/7/2003Correction exact low 92- 29/7/03BK--Steve 20/8/03 by internet connection cut off 's message, "Nasdaq analysis Oct1st by Nadsaq countentry patternOct1st" on Friday, October 31, 10:03:02am The low is recorded on the 25/6/03 as 7.3 x 10=73 the vwap 74.37--ERGDA ---------------------- The above is my Stockness vwap--from someone else (Sabretoothed formerly of Egoli--now of H/C) I got a more precise vwap for the 25/6/03--of 74.453454 (two dates--when ERG finished trading--23/6/03--then ERGDA--when it started 25/6/03) ---------------------- Institution finished selling 5/9/03 average it sold at was 92c 23 626,572 .920 build up 92 area 15/9/03 Trend direction vwap 2.19pm 15/9-93.68 Last 92 vwap 93.47--vol=2,276,104 12/9/03 17/7/03-931445603576751117734724292101341 17 July 2003 – sold 2,000,000 ordinary IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 11:46 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17/9/03-Supreme Court--Consent orders/agreed Both parties have agreed to file consent orders---tomorrow morning--on the 17/9/03-Supreme Court. it won't be filed till tomorrow morning--I just spoke with the registrar. Will ring again tomorrow--to see if I can find out what they have agreed to. The low for yesterday 15/9/03--was 92c--this is not recorded by some data gatherers. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 11:58 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis is and I'm sure anyone reading would agree---some consolidation for the share price--with resistance at 95.--16/9/03--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 12:11 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a tecnical forum--not dealing with fundamentals---just thought though--would bring anyones attention to a post made by James of Ozestock--a recent one analysing ERGs recent result and the situation going forward. Globalhelp--has given an excellent commentary of what he see's in the ERG share price over the last couple of weeks--you have an ascending triangle and a descending one meeting each other--you need to read the full body of Globals posts. James's fundamental post is post number 4966 http://www.ozestock.com.au/MessageView.asp?PostID=270755&Symbol=ERG Regards,--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 12:18 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.ozestock.com.au/MessageView.asp?PostID=271494&Symbol=ERG post 4981--as well which is an all emracing look over the full twelve months for ERG Group--with investor cap on.--James of Ozestock.--Regards,--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 12:56 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 220 divide 31= 7.0967 220 divide 30= 7.33 220 divide 29= 7.58620 220 divide 28= 7.85--(IMX for PWR--issue price) 220 divide 27 = 8.148--MOT 220 divide 26= 8.4615 220 divide 25 = 8.8 220 divide 24= 9.1666 220 divide 23= 9.56---resistance last time 220 divide 22= Bo Derek. 8.9 provision locked in at 10 with a fall from 30 115 divide 157= 7.3248--multiplying 100 88 - 96 12:58:38 pm 73 76,681 1 $55,977 9 25/6/03 Fed cut U.S. 1/4 plus Fed funds rate. 25/6/03 U.S. time. lows for S&P500 the 25/6/03 and the 26/6/03 are 974.86 and 973.80115 divide 156 = 7.371 for the second day running ERG has opened up 1c higher than it's previous close--ie 76 as opposed to 75--before that it was 75 as opposed to 74c. today's date is the 27/6/03 The official close for the 26/6/03 was 75--the last price traded at 4.17pm was 76 (ie 10 x 7.5 ie 10 x 7.6) 115 divide 155= 7.4193 115 divide 154 =7.46 115 divide 153=7.5 115 divide 152=7.56 115 divide 151=7.6158 115 divide 150=7.66 115 divide 149=7.77 115 divide 148=7.7702 115 divide 147=7.8 115 divide 146=7.876 115 divide 145=7.9 115 divide 144=7.9861111 115 divide 143=80.04 115 divide 142=80.09 115 divide 141=8.156---MOT 8.1% cap 115 divide 140=8.2142---vwap 20/2/03 16.53 divide 2 equals 8.265 115 divide 139=8.2733 115 divide 138=8.333 115 divide 137=8.394 115 divide 136=8.455 115 divide 135 =0.851851 115 divide 134=0.858208 115 divide 133=0.86466 115 divide 132 =0.87121212 115 divide 131=0.8778625 115 divide 130= 0.8846 115 divide 129 = 0.8914 115 divide 128 = 0.984375 115 divide 127=0.905511811 115 divide 126 =0.9126 115 divide 125=0.92 115 divide 124 =0927 115 divide 123 = 0.934959 115 divide 122=09426 115 divide 121=0.9504 115 divide 120=0.953 115 divide 119=0.9663 115 divide 118=0.9745 115 divide 117=0.9829 115 divide 116=0.9913 115 divide 115= 1(ie10) Bo Derek. 8.9 provision locked in at 10 with fall from 30 IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 01:13 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Significant Items The first half result previously announced included $65.9 million in significant items. The majority of these items ($52.4 million) related to a provision taken in contemplation of the Proton World sale. This provision did not take into account ERG’s potential to earn approximately $38 million in earn-out fees under the sale contract. The significant items also included costs related to the balance sheet restructuring ($9.4 million) and an increase in the deferred contingent consideration payable under the original Proton World acquisition ($8.9 million). These items were partially offset by $5.0 million received on disposal of the shareholding in ECard. Following a comprehensive review of the financial statements at year-end, the Board resolved to write down various assets and make provisions for diminution in value against the carrying value of a number of current and non-current assets, totalling $48.3 million. The largest of these write-downs is $15.4 million in costs previously capitalised against various projects. All of the above things had a sinificant impact on the profit and loss statement in the last financials just released--they subtract off the company's profits--when next reporting---they won't for they are one off and will not occur again--that was the second half--then there is a whopping 52.4 mill--plus associated expenses--for Proton in the 1st half--that won't subtract either--13.7 million from the Proton transaction--will go into operational flows--financing and investing---post June 30th. It all adds up to a healthy ERG.--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 01:27 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On techinicals when ERG released it's first half financials it did so on the 7/3/03--the sharetrend bottomed on the 12/3/03--5 days later including the day of the report--it began to progress upwards from the 12/3/03-- (the bottom was 8.1c)the 7/3/03 was a Friday as was the 12/9/03--for the same thing to occur again---today is in timeframe. 12/3/03 equals the 16/9/03---tomorrow the 17/9/03--should see some upswing.--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 01:46 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For brevity---7/3/03 Friday--taking the weekend out---3 trade days---excluding the 7th itself--before ERG began to progress up. In similarity it would be right now--also a weekend involved--not including the day itself--the 12/9/03--Friday---T+3---Wednesday the 17/9/03--maybe one more day of consolidation at most--either a progression up on the 17th--or the 18th--both days are significant.---BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 02:11 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Parabolic SAR--sell as close to 9 as possible--below is someone else--dates are very important.---BK. SUBJECT: ERG's slow decline to continue Posted By: salus Post Time: ##5/20/03## 23:58 « Previous Message Next Message » ERG's now in the mid to high 8 cent level. I hate to say I told you so, but let's face it - I did. I predict continuing price weakness, with the share falling to at least 8c & very possibly lower. This means that if ERG investors sold out now at say, 8.8c & rebought in at say 8.0c, then around 10% profits could be gained on the transaction. Not too bad at this late stage of the game! Then there's the smart move that ex yuppo performed, selling his ERGs at 9.9c. If he can repurchase them close to the 8c level, he'll have made an easy 20% or so profits. The amazing thing to me is why many others haven't performed similar strategic plays? Surely no one here thought ERG would hold steady above 9c, when (at least to me) it was patently obvious it was on its way well south of this. In any case, it's not too late. Profits can still be made, but you must be quick in order to maximise them. ##Try to sell as close to 9c as possible## then repurchase them around 8c. If you possess the cahonas, you could even wait till the share falls to 7.5c before repurchasing, although this is more risky albeit quite feasible nevertheless. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 02:24 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The ##89## slightly higher fractions disregarded Margin lenders ringing to get stock ##8th9/9/03## An indication there aren't enough shorts on the market--next stop are brokers and margin lenders.--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 02:31 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On a personal note (lol)---BK. Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2003 2:52 pm Post subject: Australian Taxation Office -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.ato.gov.au/ Just a note with anyone in the process of doing tax--if you submit it electronically--to have it done by the ATO it will take between 7 and 14 days not later than 17 days.If you do it by mail--it will take (on average) 6 to 7 weeks. I phoned them yesterday. Regards,--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 02:47 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Through the ERG tyrading experience for me--my elderly dad slips over (same as P Fog) does his hip in and is taken to hospital--so additional to doing tax--(he has other health problems as well) has been a family emergency all kinds of things--I know though in the trading sense--you can't let emotion come into buying and selling decisions (as hard as that sometimes is) Twice I've lost money on the market in a substantial way--on both occasions there was a death in the family--if anything I could say to others--is that if something similar happens to you--take time out--take some time off--for it affects your judgement. BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 03:38 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have found as a general rule--odd numbers are bullish--even numbers are bearish--this is true when the share price goes down as well as up. Odd is bullish if you are shorting it downwards--as well as when you are shorting it upwards.--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 03:53 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The strength of the resistance at it's maximum point was 89--ie resistance was 100--from 89 we count in 2c intervals for the bulls.89 91 93 95 97 99 101.---BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 06:18 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NTA minus 17 31/12/02-reported March 03 This report coming up 12/9--approximately a dollar--Melbourne Age 17/7/03. I rang Pattersons and while they wouldn't give me the exact figure they did confirm approx 1 dollar--the below calc is one I've done--based on the number of shares given by the entity on the 23/6/03 9756898573080499. (writedowns within the next report coming up--the salient thing is though--confined to the 03 year--ERG is profitable with a clean balance sheet--forward from June 30th 03. The company will report a loss--coming up--it will however show an enourmous improvement on the last result and will be running profitable for fy4. Regards,--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 16-09-2003 06:22 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ignore that last post--NTA is officially 36c---12/9/03--I mean't to post the below. I consider this the final countdown for ERG--long after I'm gone you can use the info here as a record of the year 2003--when the cheapest ERG were available--and with much of what has been inputed--price projections can be made into the future.--BK. Previous low recorded for ERG was on the 12/3/03--which was 8.1--with a vwap of 8.5--it's high was on the day Sydney was announced on the 20/2/03 18--the vwap on the 20/3 was 16.53---82.5% retracement (Gann) is 9.3. A valuation of ERG is applicable relating to PWI/MOT settlements in it's accounts---re 82.5% retracement vwap's 9.3 16.53 - 8.8.5 8.03 x 82.5%=9.3 http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ERG&E=ASX&N=213871 Issue price or consideration (a) 75,541,489 ordinary sharesat $0.28 (b) 1,000,000 options at $0.314 28 divided by 3 x equals 9.3 rounded. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 17-09-2003 07:57 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERG cyclical history 20/2/03 to the 8/8/03 --------------------------------------------- 1)February. Feb 20th day Sydney was announced--reached a high of 18 with a vwap of 16.53. (previous to Sydney it had been retreating.) volume was 68,543,590. --------------------------------------------- 2) March It went down into the release of financials on March 6th--it bottomed on March 12 2003---the low was 8.1--the high was 90 last price traded 8.4 vwap 8.5. volume equalled--10,094,738 --------------------------------------------- 3) April It went up to the 23/4/03--reaching a high of 11.5 a low of 10.5 finishing at 11 the vwap was 11.77 volume--equalled 6,035,094. Proton confirmed as sold on the 29/4/03 (previously announced--26/3/03) There were also other things during this period. --------------------------------------------- 4)May It went down to the 29/5/03 and the 30/5/03 bottoming over two days with the low on both occasions at 8.1. 29/5/03--high 8.3 low 8.1 vwap 8.19 volume 4,197,166. 30/5/03 Last trades 8.3 4.10pm (8.4 at 3.59pm) vwap 8.28 volume2,135,676. In May ERG shareholders approved the conversion debt for equity. (other things as well.)The Ingot Entities became a subtantial shareholder on the 27th--announced the 30th. --------------------------------------------- 5) June. It went up to the 6/6/03 reaching a high of 9.1 volume was 3,031,558 low was 89 close was 89 ERGN traded to the 10-Jun 03:56:28 pm high was 88 low was 86 finish was 86. --------------------------------------------- 6)June/July It went down to the 23/6/03 low was 7.5 vwap 7.68 high was 7.9 volume was 18,731,502 ceased trading. 6B) The first day of ERGDA was the 24/6/03 Opened at 75 low 75 high 79 finished 75 vwap 76.84 vol 555,635. Last day for ERGDA 7/7/03 -- Last 80 vwap 80.97 volume 203,116 --------------------------------------------- 7) JulyERG commenced trading again (merged with ERGDA and ERGN) on the 8/7/03 low was 79 high was 81 it finished at 81 volume was 5,950,638 The next day 9/7/03 the high was 83 the low 80 closed 83 volume was 1,012,359 --------------------------------------------- July ERG rose to the 16/7/03 and the 17/7/03 doing a double top of 118 on both days on the 16/7/03 the low was 1.11 the hiogh 118 the finish 116 volume equalled 7,982,222 The 17/7/03 high 1.17 low 97 finished 103-volume equalled 11,274,934 --ERG then began declining--doing a double top again on the 22/7 and 23/7 108. --------------------------------------------- 9) July/August ERG declined from the 16th and the 17th of July 118 down to the 8/8/03 at 82c vwap 86.2 high was 89 finished at 88 volume 2,645,774 ---------------------------------------------ERG Sells Motorola's Shares at 1.85 Transit industry technology specialist ERG has sold the 82.6 million shares held by Motorola to a "range of investors" for 1.85, raising $185 million. Sold by the 5th of March 2001 18.5 divided by 2 equals 9.25 9.25 x 9 =83.25---x 8 = 74---61.8% level = 115.784 High March 2001 185 and the Low June 25 2003-- 73 82.5% retracement 92.6 100 day moving average 92.6-- 22/8/03 30 months since March 2001--to August 2003. Sale of Proton World - 26/3/03 8.4% of capital 30 divide 185 = 0.162162 divided by 2=8.1%--Motorola 8.1% of capital. Immediate need to cover post 12/9--clean balance sheet--writedowns confined to FY3 leading into--or post 12/9 IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 17-09-2003 10:25 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cubic verses NSW. Computer hasn't been updated yet--re Cubic and NSW--an employee of the Supreme Court though has looked into it for me (very kind of her to do that) and she tells me both parties came to an agreement-- and have settled with each other (terms undisclosed)--17/9/03 IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 17-09-2003 03:24 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 95 I think is a key figure--which it has been toying with--needs to get over that and build up support on the other side of it. BK IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 18-09-2003 02:03 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NTA minus 17 31/12/02-reported March 03 This report coming up 12/9--approximately a dollar--Melbourne Age 17/7/03. I rang Pattersons and while they wouldn't give me the exact figure they did confirm approx 1 dollar--the below calc is one I've done--based on the number of shares given by the entity on the 23/6/03 9756898573080499. (writedowns within the next report coming up--the salient thing is though--confined to the 03 year--ERG is profitable with a clean balance sheet--forward from June 30th 03. The company will report a loss--coming up--it will however show an enourmous improvement on the last result and will be running profitable for fy4. Regards,--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 18-09-2003 02:05 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 trading days25thThe MTC meet/voteSanFran The MTC meet to vote on Translink on September 24th American time September 25th Australian time--today is Thursday the 18th of September--there are 6 trading days to the 25th (next Thursday--Australian time) till that meeting occurs--every broker and every margin lender right accross Australia are aware that meeting is occuring. I might have inadvertently posted twice--I didn't mean to--apologies if I have.--BK. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 18-09-2003 06:32 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- July ERG rose to the 16/7/03 and the 17/7/03 doing a double top of 118 on both days. -------------------------------- In tally with the 16th and 17th of July a bottoming process has occured- on the 16 and 17th of September. IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 18-09-2003 08:21 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERG--2 large brokers upgraded ERG July16 2 large brokers upgraded ERG July16 -------------------------------------------- 61.8% retracement with upper figure at 118 16/7 and the 17/7/03--and the lower figure of 73--25/6/03 equals 91.81 92c rounded.--a difference of 45c--50% retracement =95.5 38.2% retracement equals 100.81 Lowest fig seen intraday 94---17/7/03 Note high and low for 17/7 97--to 118---20/2/03--12/3/03 82.5% retracement vwap's 9.3 16.53 - 8.8.5 8.03 x 82.5%=9.3----Noted the 9.3 area the more times you hit a figure in search of a bottom (double bottom--triple botton etc) many times the stronger it becomes. I counted several times for the 9/5/03 and I think 3 times the 8/5/03 (ERG was going down at the time--the 9.3 x 10 area held for sometime though) The low for the S&P500 on the 17/7/03 US time 978.60 finishing off it's lows above the 963 area 5% 10.1004 at 1/4/03---62,499,492#### resistance support line ... -------------------------------------- Chuck in some fundies. Below is very relevant to ERG-- in line with the doctrine--all of the bad stuff is behind it fundamanentally and contained within FY3 Assessing Company performance--provisions. --------------------------------------------- Provisions are charges an entity makes against profits to allow for expenses which have been incurred but for which the amount and the payment date can only be estimated. In other words, they are estimates of specific commitments. For example, in topic two we saw that entities are required ke provision in their accounts for doubtful debts. Provisions are made for such items as depreciation, long service leave and warranty. --------------------------------------------- All provisions relating to assets are deducted (doubtful debts, inventory obsolesence, depreciation and amortisation) with all other provisions being included under current or non current liabilities. Sometimes provisions may be used to reduce profits. In a good year, an entity may over provide, thus creating a cushion which can then be used in a bad year to absorb any fall in profits.Provisions which allow a greater amount of flexibiliy in the estimation procedure, tend to be set on a fairly pessimistic note. This is part of the doctrine of conservatism which simply means accountants do not like to take the risk of reporting profit before they are reasonably certain the entity will earn it. There can be a tendency to record all possible costs as early as possible and revenues as late as possible. Entities doing very well tend to be conservative in their accounting, whereas entities having difficulties are tempted to abandon the doctrine of conservatism. These are the entities which are more likely to fail. --------------------------------------------- 11/3/2002 ---------------------------------------------"The ERG Directors believe this very conservative accounting treatment will permit the ERG financial statements to be more transparent." --------------------------------------------- Here is an estimation I've done in the past--it was done with a slightly different number of shares--it is the amount of value ERG have unlocked from accounts by doing the reconstruction. -------------------------------------------- It was done on the 15th of May--the Group did not state the amount of shares on issue officially to the 23/6/03. It's more or less fairly accurate. -------------------------------------------- With the rights issue proceeding unlocking 8.92c from ERG's accounts. (if not proceeding a higher figure 9.965) -------------------------------------------- IP: Logged bonkers Full Member Posts: 127 From: Registered: Nov 2000 posted 18-09-2003 11:11 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18th of September 3 day proxy for price is 94.6--13 days 92.6 -- 39 day 90.6 100 day 89.9 200 day 103.1 ------------------- ###Below is not my work###--it was pinched off ##the Clocker## at Shares Guru----BK. So as this forum doesn’t become totally Fundamental I’m reposting The Clocker’s submission to egoli, as it represents the simplest TA you can find. As all sources are attributed I cannot see how this could transgress any copyright laws. Having not seen the original source material, we have to take The Clocker’s word for it. With such general usage I don’t think ANYBODY can claim “sole proprietorship” of the numbers 3, 9 & 39. Publish & be damned. To balance up the Sharesguru Reference Library. The Clocker Sutton Park, NSW1/22/03 Trading Systems Some of you might find the following useful. It was produced by TraderTalk as a tutorial for the average punter. I have used it as a tool for timing entry into a stock, but I tend to watch trading volumes for an exit. My own experience, since I adopted some discipline and put mind ahead of heart [pardon the pun in respect of VCR] has been very successful. A Simple Moving Average Trading System - 3x13x39 "What is a good simple system to follow, to get in and out of markets?". Most people are comfortable with the herd. Such folk are most comfortable with a trend following system. I am ill at ease in a pack and downright anxious when everybody and his dog are comfortably saying the same thing. I am, therefore, drawn to oscillators to anticipate the end of popular perception. Oscillators also give an insight into the cyclical nature of markets. Being obsessed with market structure and somewhat compulsive in my quest for efficiency my ways are not 'comfortable' for many. So to get back to basics for those not able or willing to devote the time to market study that I do here is a way to handle your market study and trading decisions. Remember the numbers 3 x 13 = 39 Simple daily moving averages of 3,13 and 39 can keep you in and out of markets fairly efficiently and profitably, (in any time frame actually). I will show you how. Some basic principles to hang on to are: · The market moves in long (secular) trends which may last years, e.g. the present equity bull market dates from 1982. · Intermediate trends lasting many months, even a couple of years or so. · Short term trends lasting weeks or months. · Trade intermediate trends in either direction. · Trade short term trends only in the direction of the intermediate trend. Proxies: · 3 Day MA - a proxy for price · 13 Day MA - a proxy for the short term trend (a moving trend line) · 39 Day MA - a proxy for the intermediate trend (a moving trend line) · 40 week, 200 day MA - a proxy for the secular trend (a moving Trend line) The Basics of MAs MAs lag market reversals at tops and bottoms, the larger the MA the longer the lag period, the shorter the MA the shorter the lag but the more frequent the whipsaws. MAs work well when markets trend but get frequently whipsawed when they are in a range. Therefore, trade trends with the MAs but do not trade ranges using MAs. Just stand aside and be patient until a new trend emerges. The intermediate trend is in the direction of the 39 MA which acts like a moving trend line. If the 39 MA is pointing up then the intermediate trend is up, if down the trend is down. If the 39 MA is horizontal the market is in a range, from which a trend will, sooner or later, emerge. Simple Trading Rules 1. When the 39 MA is moving up buy when the 3 MA crosses up over the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses above the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses above the 39 MA consider adding to your long position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 crosses back below the 13 MA.. 2. When the 39 MA is moving down sell short when the 3 MA crosses below the 13 MA. and/or when the 3 MA crosses below the 39 MA.. When the 13 MA crosses below the 39 MA consider adding to your short position. Exit and stand aside when the 3 MA crosses back up over the 13 MA. 3. Only initiate trades in the opposite direction of the intermediate trend when the 3 MA crosses above or below the 39 MA, preferably after the 39 MA has already changed direction. 4. This 3:13 MA crossover will keep you trading in the trend with only a small lag and on the sidelines during corrections. The lag only becomes more substantial at reversals of the intermediate trend (a 3:39 crossover), a small price to pay at these uncertain times of trend transition. Aids to Interpretation · When the 3:13 crossovers occur at some distance from the 39 MA then you are likely dealing with a short term correction (even though it can be substantial) to the 39 MA. · If the 3:13 & 39 MAs are close and converging before crossing over you are likely dealing with an intermediate (or significant) correction of the trend or reversal. · Likely means probable NOT 'you can bet the farm on it' surety. There is no sure thing just as there is absolutely no free lunch. Happy Punting The Clocker [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] |
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| Its a hostile thing with trading is it?--with the IP protocol game-- posted 02-11-2003 03:25 AM | with the IP protocol game--what you break confidentiality and consumer laws here as well do you? Additional to stockhouse--GO GET YOURSELF ****ED | Saturday, November 01, 08:48:54am |