Author:
One thing I don't understand is why are you mutiplying or dividing prices by two, often several times, to arrive at some figures. For example if the stock's NTAB is 32c and it is trading at $1.28
|
[
Next Thread |
Previous Thread |
Next Message |
Previous Message
]
Date Posted: 27/09/03 12:50:54pm
In reply to:
By the build up from 96c dated the 25/9/03
's message, "Opinions on ERG trading aspect sought A 1 dollar valuation has been obtained dated the 25/9/03." on 27/09/03 12:35:31pm
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 19-09-2003 10:09 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18 September 2003--morning lowest figure on the sell side was 90.
---------------------
19th of September--morning pre open (Single price auction) the lowest figure 96.
--------------------
Technology has reappeared in the indexes in the States--as being desirable once more--after recently decling---ERG rose here in Australia--while it was declining--most chose to cover--when it looked gloomy not good.---BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 19-09-2003 10:40 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From Hotcopper Tomatofillet has the three day proxy for price 18/9/03--posted a little early perhaps! back in May. (lol)--BK.
-----------------------------------------
Title: ERG.
Picked by: tomatofillet
Picked on: 09/05/03
Pick Expires: 9/20/2003
Pick Price: $0.094
Current Price: $
Predicted Price: $0.20
Current Return: -100.00%
Predicted Return: 112%
Analysis
Post June 30th clean balance sheet going forward, 370 million dollars worth of debt paid off over the last 12 months.
48.75 million in annualised savings to be reflected in the full year--which is the 30/6/02 to the 30/6/03 as reporting in September, if the rights issue proceeds 9.7c is unlocked from ERG's balance sheet--as at account position 31/12/02--NTA was 7.198 (this excludes the recent resolution to Lazio (substantial receivable still to collect)(net assets 10.3c--also excluding the recent settlement of Lazio--note the receivable still being negotiated) the multi application and interopearable side of earnings quickened by selling Proton, making provision in accounts for 52.4m linked to earnout of 40.9m over ten years-MASS playing along with PWI a big part in that as technologies merge.
31.2 million in licence fee's deferred but not disallowed,(Germany--equity accounting 19.97%--nearly to the first of the thresholds of 20%) if the rights issue proceeds an estimation is 1.66c will appear in financiang and investing activities reconciled to the balance sheet.
Several contracts coming up, they relate to the MOT settlement, this will give a boost to earnings per share, by bring forward lost values. Look I could wax lyrical for ages there are so many things.
It may appear to be a pretty boring trade where it is now, I feel though you have to see picture down the track to get the full apreciation of what the company has achieved and is achieving. Overhauled management, still a little bit of that to go yet (deemed to be satisfied as part of the restructure on the 7/5/03 I'd rate it as buy in the accumulative sense--this obviously speeds up when you get closer to a contract coming out. At the moment shorts are turning around I feel between 9 and 10c (exactly it should be 9.3)
ASX 10/4/02
Issue price or consideration (a) 75,541,489 ordinary sharesat $0.28 (it really is just playing with fractions of a cent I feel at between 9 and 10)
28 divided by 3 x equals 9.3 9.3 rounded.
Essentially though taking share trading right out of it and then looking at the company rather than the share--the price you pay now will be cheap in comparison with what you pay in a few months time, the most important thing to remember is post June 30th the company will have a clean balance sheet going forward, net debt to equity drops from over 1000 percent down to 28%--anyway there is so much stuff--the above is just a small bit. Excluding specific times it is not so far, a lightening quick thing although as we know it can be--taking San Francisco right out of it which will be intrinsic to the company's plans in the USA--anyway taking that out of it--just simply a ground floor opportunity for the patient investor trader Gavin Ross is right! finally--LOL The only thing I can add--it's loss last time it reported was only a headline one due to the Proton transaction and the timing of it--it will have next time it reports not only a greatly improved underlying result--also a good headline result--it's outsourcing now--take amotisation off it's books--1.25 million per month ios being saved in regrds to PWI from the 22/4/03 on (15 mill p/a)--plus don't forget R&D has been cut from 18% of rev down to 8%--so many things.
Cheers.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 19-09-2003 12:34 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you don't want to go into depth on ERG--in Shaun Duffy's (Investor Relations manager ERG group) words--the most important thing to remember is the following. "ERG has a clean balance sheet--post June 30th 2003."--BK
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 19-09-2003 12:48 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the extreme valuation sense--and with a trading perspective--my focus is on the future not the past---I have no fear--for me (and I share it with others)--ERG to me is a bottle of coke--a 1 dollar bottle of coke.---BK.
http://www.80stvthemes.com/ra/51999/COKE82VID.ra
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 19-09-2003 02:26 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Analysis in bottom picking is ERG tends to hold fundamental points within it's accounts--(that's on the really severe downswings)(the 10 to 11 day possibly longer retreats as opposed to the more bullish 3 to 4 day retreats.)going forward more important than any smartcard (although that is part of it.)-- is the news that it has a clean balance sheet. (the longer term picture),
The policy is now if ERG aren't certain of getting it resolved and the money in within twelve months-- they write it down--so there could be some "bumps" in the future (if so) immediately felt and understood.
Charting --if ERG can maintain a shareprice over 95--it's three day MA a proxy for pricing--will at least be stable -- or possibly even slightly enhanced.--19/9/03
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 19-09-2003 02:41 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In it's entire sharetrading history (at least since I've been following it) (which is a few years) (intensley since late 2002)--Motorola 8.1% of capital--has only been broken once--and that was due to the reconstruction--and then only briefly. It is very strong within ERG.--BK.
IP: Logged
jwlabno
Full Member
Posts: 580
From: melbourne
Registered: May 2002
posted 19-09-2003 03:24 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am surprised you seek anyone's opinion on erg - you seem to know more about the company than anyone else.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 20-09-2003 10:24 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi jwlabno, with ERG the most important thing is the timing cycle--the two dates that have just elapsed the ##16th and 17th of September##, I've learn't on ERG the hard way at great cost to myself---I've never made a profit on it, whatever has been posted is from the "college of hard knocks" lol ERG might do a few weird and wonderful things in it's current trading channel, my belief is it will exceed it's previous high of 118 in time.--Regards,--BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 20-09-2003 10:32 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With investor cap on--as opposed to extreme short term middle distance trader---it's my belief based on an accredited understanding of financials and ERG's account positioning, that the year of 2003 is the cheapest ERG anyone has obtained or likely to obtain.-(I see this as being true with a number of other stocks as well--ERG I'm well researched in and feel comfortable with--both as investor and trader.--BK.
IP: Logged
jwlabno
Full Member
Posts: 580
From: melbourne
Registered: May 2002
posted 21-09-2003 12:25 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by bonkers:
I've learn't on ERG the hard way at great cost to myself---I've never made a profit on it, whatever has been posted is from the "college of hard knocks" lol ERG might do a few weird and wonderful things in it's current trading channel, my belief is it will exceed it's previous high of 118 in time.--Regards,--BK.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I was going to ask next, why ERG of all stocks, but I guess you answered this already, unless you want to add to it...
I too have lost a lot on erg in 2000-01 while it was falling. It was my dream stock that I was hoping secretly it will one day recover and bring me profits while all those *******s that were selling it and driving the price down will be sorry.
When the dream was no more, my resolution was different than yours - I said I will never get into erg again, that there is plenty of other stocks that I can make money on.
I did get into ERG when she was 10c and got out at 12.5 - one profitable move for a change, but it wasn;t the love affair from the past anymore. We drifted apart and while I wasn't there for ERG, she's changed.
I still live in the past, the ERG I know could drop from $1.60 to under 10c. But now, I can't even refresh my memories because acording to the charts, she never was 10c.
So I don't understand her anymore and that is another reason to keep away from her.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 21-09-2003 09:14 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi jwlabno, I originally made a profit--I bought in before Sydney--initially sold---sadly for me--I rebought in too early--if then further declined and I ended up losing not only my profit everything I made as well.
Ever since then I have had more of a personal budgeting problem than an ERG problem. I've seen so many opportunities on the stockmarket pass me buy--so many gret company's that have risen in value--all of them I've had to say no to. I am so sorry I ever heard the name of this company--thats my personal story. Taking that all out of it and looking at the company non emotionally.
It will make a profit this year.
Regards,--BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 21-09-2003 09:22 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It is not a trading or even investment decision for me--I'm 42 years old--I have absolutely zilch after 20 years hard work--except some ERG shares--thats all I have in the world---aside from trading I have to cope with some huge psychological barriers--which I think I do quite well--at least now--there was a time when it was harder to adjust to the situation.--BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 21-09-2003 09:33 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What I've worked hard at doing within myself is creating some balance in character and putting my finances on an even keel--I've almost achieved this now. I find when ERG rises--that psychologically (because it means so much to me) I can go to over elation--which is really bad--for as you know the whole process of trading investment--should be one of balance and non emotion. It is just the situation I have found myself in. I am determined to get out of it. I'm a fighter and I have fought on it. As difficult as it is I have tried to put a balanced lifestyle in--one that is healthy and natural--it has not been easy! Within my family--I've had medical emergencies--all sorts of stuff has come along--through it all I've survived.---BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 21-09-2003 09:46 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the gloomiest days the only thing that has kept me going are my fundamental beliefs--I note many traders total up cash in their mind (I do too--important to acknowlege reality and what you have got--so that you can improve.)--it is the fundamental side to me though that gives me a belief system--which enables me to value the company above cash--without that belief system--I feel I would have karked it a long time ago.
Sincerly--BK.
IP: Logged
G
Full Member
Posts: 481
From: NSW, Australia
Registered: Jun 2001
posted 21-09-2003 06:10 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So what is the story with ERG may I ask, as I remember ERG much lower than my chart shows.
Did they do consolidation or something like that?
IP: Logged
jwlabno
Full Member
Posts: 580
From: melbourne
Registered: May 2002
posted 21-09-2003 09:03 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by bonkers:
Hi jwlabno, I originally made a profit--I bought in before Sydney--initially sold---sadly for me--I rebought in too early--if then further declined and I ended up losing not only my profit everything I made as well.
Ever since then I have had more of a personal budgeting problem than an ERG problem. I've seen so many opportunities on the stockmarket pass me buy--so many gret company's that have risen in value--all of them I've had to say no to. I am so sorry I ever heard the name of this company--thats my personal story. Taking that all out of it and looking at the company non emotionally.
It will make a profit this year.
Regards,--BK.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What is your break-even on erg?
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 21-09-2003 11:57 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some data gatherers did not record 92 15/9
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 22-09-2003 12:10 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi jwlabno, I probably have broken every rule in the book and am just hangin on--in real life aside from BB's I'm dignosed with depression--that is partly stockmarket related---although not all (personal issues)--it is reactive--meaning I am fighting (the doctor tells me) against it--so my mental attitude is good. (in that respect.) I'm just simply trying to get myself out of a difficult scrape--I've never really had a big problem with bottom picking on ERG--like all of us we have our successes and failures in that regard---we all know as traders and investors---top picking is the hard one--bottom picking is easy in comparison--LOL--I should be alright at least I'm hoping I will be--Ive paid all my utility bills and I don't have any cash drains to worry about for this month--I had to budget very severely to do that--luckily enough a few agencies were able to stagger me in payments after I explained my situation to them--in between all of that--my elderly dad gets rushed to hospital--it was a life threatening situation (same thing as P Fog--hip--other things as wrong as well)--ERG for me I try and make pleasant--but in reality it is anything but that. My natural pychological state with shares without all of those pressures--is very relaxed--I would equate it to Ringo the drummer out of the Beatles--I'm a happy go lucky person--with a great sense of fun--I have a really good investor attitude to company's--I always see a company before a share price--whereas as you know some are the other way round--they see a shareprice (we are all different.)--Anyway touch wood--I'm hoping no more calamaties befall--my dad--who was the main thing I was worried about.--BK.
IP: Logged
jwlabno
Full Member
Posts: 580
From: melbourne
Registered: May 2002
posted 22-09-2003 08:42 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At the same age and with erg "experience" we could also swap stories about life. I too have been wiped out, right down to 0 by my ex, not just of the money but family as well.
I turned it around and so can you.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 23-09-2003 05:54 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi jwlabno, thankyou for the kind wishes much appreciated--volatility narrowed on the 22/9/03 in the 95 to 97 region--it widened on the 23/9/03 in the 93 to 95 area--tops and bottoms are associated with increased volatility---looking at it in the extreme minute sense. I've got some in the 80's what happened was to make it even worse was an inappropiate margin position--I only received enough equity to buy the stock--when it rose---even though I knew (rough idea) where the bottom was (in the extreme sense)--I couldn't buy--no equity--so then what I've done is tried to get some on momentum--when it has risen--then close it out--but then through one thing or another been unable to sell quickly enough--then been forced to have even more than what I had before. I've cured that with a tax ceque that has taken a lot of pressure off me--I never intend to get in that position ever again--this is it with ERG--its been the wrong kind of stock for me over the last few months--for the nature of the reconstruction has seen it to a raging trade--rather than a good days and bad days slowly as you go type thing--that I could have just gone along nicely on---for another type of person---ERG a good stock for them--for me personally it's been a bad choice on my part.--BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 23-09-2003 06:09 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Volatility narrow 22/9/03---volatility wide 23/9/03.
--------------------------------------------
What steps have I taken since the previous posts mistakes? Ive been learning quite a few educational things at different forums on charting and fundamentals. I have a broker now that has rapid execution rather than slow execution--with stop losses. My main thing has been the inability to sell when it want to and buy when I want to--the broker I have now is so much better.---BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 23-09-2003 09:39 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you see Walts post of Ozestock recently--what he has highlighted--is a significant point within ERG's sharetrend--if you rember back to the old ERG (and he's an Ergite from way back)--is on the chart the 46--he has brought to attention the 47 number--which is 1c higher than 46---on the old chart ERG breaks a resistance line--and then it used to take it up to 51 52--56 58--heading in tha direction. If you note the VWAP bottom for the stock was 74 not 73--what you do is reverse--you get 47---but then you cont 10c up you get the 84--Proton 8.4% of cap--10c up again 94c (estimation--of value unlocked 93---reverse of 39) ERG as we know has been reconstructed--what you must do is a bit of mathamatics---the ssame sharetrading rules apply--just a smaller more compact ERG (lol)--BK. (The 9 is significant being half of the 18 recorded on the day of Sydney--as 8 is half the vwap 16.53)---20/2/03
IP: Logged
jwlabno
Full Member
Posts: 580
From: melbourne
Registered: May 2002
posted 23-09-2003 10:51 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well I like to know the stocks I am trading too. I try to study their patterns and it helps me.
But I am not sure about the exotic numbers - I don't believe that numbers other than pure price action count in analysis. At least they not for me.
Looks like you hate that ERG pretty bad. I don't mean to push but I am genuinely interested how bad this rade turned against to cause you so much grief. My ERg adventure started at $1.60 and I rode almost entire downtrend, to low 30c. That's more than 80% loss. I bought it back at 10c and sold a couple of cents higher but that was nothing compared with the loss I've taken.
IP: Logged
jwlabno
Full Member
Posts: 580
From: melbourne
Registered: May 2002
posted 23-09-2003 10:56 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by G:
So what is the story with ERG may I ask, as I remember ERG much lower than my chart shows.
Did they do consolidation or something like that?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By the jump in price from 9c to 90c my guess it was 10:1, or similar consolidation.
IP: Logged
smallworld
Full Member
Posts: 90
From: melbourne
Registered: Jul 2000
posted 23-09-2003 11:21 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looks like ERG may be rotating back towards 89c by the end of this week. Next week will be most interesting for ERG.
SW
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 12:01 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 23/9/03-single price closing auction 94
---------------------------------------------
The single price closing auction recorded a match with 94.--For the first time in awhile the re emergence of the 100 figure on the buyside--the lowest figure seen on the sell side was 93.--The difference between the two figures was 7c. there was not much remaining to be sold at 93 and what was available was taken up--with depth then showing 94 to 95.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 12:19 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iv'e lost most of my money on the market--although I've had my successes--at one stage in my life I had a really healthy view of myself in retirement--it's a strange way to be now--even socially--for most of my peers are at least financially comfortable--whereas as I ensivage it now--my lot almost going to be out of Tale of Two Cities or something--it's a big mental adjustment to make--to get used to.--BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 12:47 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ERG in brief.
-----------------------------------------
Fully reconstructed company over 370 million dollars wortth of debt eliminated.
Annualised savings 48.75 mill. 15 mill in amortisation saved--a number of recoverable items within it's accounts and some one off charges that were made due to restructure that affected 30/6/02 to the 30/6/03 profit and loss that were one off and will not happen again and not impact profits. The last of the projects the entity stated were hampering profitability--is San Francisco and that is extremely close to being resolved. Entity has a new bus model in which it outsources taking depreciation and amortisation off it's books--a recent example of this was Sept 3rds announcement of the restructuring of Lazio--saving a further 6.8 million--none of which anymore has to be expensed therough the statement of cash flows. The Group has stated it expects to be profitable over the full 12 months of FY4---it has (as given on the 23/6/03) approximately 267,503,037 shares on issue--the new stock created came from the convertible notes that ERG was paying interest on that it has now eliminated--the conversion process saw a slightly under 8c figure--the 2003 low for ERG (ERGDA) recored on the 25/6/03 was 73c with a vwap 74.453454 there is still some negativity in the sharetrend relating to the reconstruction that needs to work itself through over time.
I't a brand new company now though. (the share aside.) It's revenues are expected to grow by 74% this year now that so many projects are coming on stream--more and more of it is of a longer term and recurring nature (as the passage of time goes on.)
More I could say-specific alliances and agreements were made with the sale of Proton and the making of provison 52.4m--tied to ean out 40.9m over ten years that are part of the multi application side of the card.
BK.
IP: Logged
smallworld
Full Member
Posts: 90
From: melbourne
Registered: Jul 2000
posted 24-09-2003 12:51 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bonkers
I found the book "How i trade for a living" by Gary Smith extremely encouraging and useful. The title itself never excited me and I thought it was another one of books from the bubble days. But since I was at Borders one day and was not in a hurry, I picked up this book and started reading it. and I nearly read half the book in the store. I bought it home and have read it several times since. This book is a good book about reality trading, by a Guy who nearly lost it all with only 2 grand left in his bank account, re-learnt his trade, and is a millionare now. Certainly not rich by the wizardary standard of larry williams or tony oz, but he tells it the way it is.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 01:01 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I get banned--I was establish okay--I'm pinching my own work.--BK (Steves the real name.)
establish (ID#: 405460) 9.20 divisable 4 stocksplits 23 2/10/02 3:23:38 AM 5584204
« Previous Message Next Message »
http://www.stockhouse.com.au/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=5342931%20%20&tableid=1
http://www.stockhouse.com.au/brokerage/apr00/041900_bellsec.asp
It will be recalled that in the aftermath of the heavy decline on 4/4/00, a temporary rebound occurred over the following three trading sessions. Downward pressure subsequently re-emerged. The risk currently exists for a similar formation/secondary sell off. Accordingly, the rally today provides an opportunity to sell on the rally.
Following are key resistance barriers-
[X.CPU] - resistance $6.50
[X.VNA] - resistance $1.84
[X.DVT] - resistance $3.00
[X.ERG] has rallied towards key resistance located at $9.20 which provides a sell on the rally opportunity
---------------------------------------------------------------------
6.50 divided by 2 equals 3.75 divided by 2 equals 182.5
All time high Thursday 2nd of September 1999 21.15 divided by 2 equals 10.575 divided by 2 equals 5.2875 divided by 2 equals 264.375 divided by 2 equals 1.32875---which was the lower end of the bollinger band on the 9/8/2002
130.8
http://www.stockhouse.com.au/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=5428007%20%20&tableid=1
Recent low was 1.3900 which equates to a p/e of 15 times current eps
current eps 9.2c source Aspect 15x 9.2=1.38
http://www-au.computershare.com/Investor/company/TradingHistory
14 Aug 2002
AU$1.6300
AU$1.6300
AU$1.5800
434,580
+0.0100
13 Aug 2002
AU$1.6200
AU$1.6400
AU$1.5800
2,861,714
No Change
12 Aug 2002
AU$1.6200
AU$1.6800
AU$1.6100
1,336,177
-0.0300
09 Aug 2002
AU$1.6500
AU$1.6700
AU$1.5900
3,178,018
+0.0700
08 Aug 2002
AU$1.5800
AU$1.5800
AU$1.5400
1,488,404
+0.0300
07 Aug 2002
AU$1.5500
AU$1.5800
AU$1.5300
2,986,642
+0.0200
06 Aug 2002
AU$1.5300
AU$1.5600
AU$1.3900
3,585,782
+0.0300
05 Aug 2002
AU$1.5000
AU$1.5300
AU$1.4700
3,249,494
-0.0500
02 Aug 2002
AU$1.5500
AU$1.6000
AU$1.5300
5,296,533
-0.1000
01 Aug 2002
AU$1.6500
AU$1.7500
AU$1.6500
4,656,860
-0.1000
31 Jul 2002
AU$1.7500
AU$1.8200
AU$1.6900
4,102,403
-0.0600
30 Jul 2002
AU$1.8100
AU$1.8600
AU$1.8000
792,475
+0.0100
29 Jul 2002
AU$1.8000
AU$1.8500
AU$1.8000
1,894,414
-0.0200
26 Jul 2002
AU$1.8200
AU$1.8200
AU$1.7700
4,277,932
+0.0200
25 Jul 2002
AU$1.8000
AU$1.8600
AU$1.7600
6,757,541
No Change
24 Jul 2002
AU$1.8000
AU$1.8800
AU$1.7800
2,684,049
-0.1100
23 Jul 2002
AU$1.9100
AU$1.9200
AU$1.8400
1,047,781
+0.0200
22 Jul 2002
AU$1.8900
AU$1.8900
AU$1.8300
1,359,124
-0.0700
19 Jul 2002
AU$1.9600
AU$2.0400
AU$1.9500
1,238,369
-0.0800
18 Jul 2002
AU$2.0400
AU$2.0500
AU$2.0000
1,167,003
+0.0300
The $9.20 area was a spot where a big institution started to short it--to get the average price an institution sold for on the 5/9/03 of 92c--is to divide $9.20c by 100.
9.20--divided by 2 equals 4.60 divide by 2 equals 2.30 divide by 2 equals 1.15 divide by 2 equals 57.5 divide by 2 equals 28.75---divide by 2 equals 14.375 divide by 2 equals 7.1875--with the low being 73c--NTA at the time (it is now 36c) (the entity was between reconstruction--and did not have as many accumulated losses subtracting (it will improve next time it reports in March) was for end 31/12/02 7.1981023892813
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 01:10 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thankyou I'll look the book up you have mentioned Samallworld--I have been in bad positions before and do have a referencing mental system--nothing has been as bad as this failure though. What I am hoping to achieve before I even think about riches is a just a decent standard of recreation enjoyment and living and balance to lifestyle--which I can't obtain at present--early days yet!--LOL--BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 01:59 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It should be in a rising pattern--bullish days bearish days till around mid October.--BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 11:42 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23/9/03 ---3 day ma 94.9 13 day 93 39 ma 90.6 100 ma 89.7 -- 200 ma 102.9 180 ma 102.7
Providing for the 24th it can keep trading around 95 and above---it's 3 day ma (proxy for price) and it's 13 day should be slightly improved for the bulls.
13 Day MA - a proxy for the short term trend (a moving trend line)--BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 11:50 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
resistance noted for 22/9/03---98c--it has a diffulty in getting over 98c--so to me this is the figure in the immediate extreme--dated the 24/9/03--it needs to break over and then form support and trade the other side of.---BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 12:04 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On a personal note.
The thing I'm most upset about is not loss of money at all--or even break up with my ex partner--I had a pet dog--a six year old German Shepherd (who was everyones friend) (very good with young children--usual story they used to pat him--they used to like him he liked them) (that type of thing) he was my best mate--I was right till he died of kidney disease--up untill that moment--it was me and him against the world--ven my ex wife said--Steve you'll be right youv'e got your best mate--and that was a very true thing of her to say--anyway (I'm a real pet lover and regrded him (and my ex did too) as one of the family--this has and is still taking a lot to get over.--BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 03:25 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Within the trend as the chart from Market Mad has stated a number of bottoms have been made---on this cycal I'm essentially bullish from the 7th of August and the 8th of August (initially)--another important date (several to take note of) is the 16th and 17th of September. (double top 16th 17th July)
The 96 to 98 area is a disparity of note it is a meeting area of support and resistance--noted the date that it has occured in relation to ERG trend--that is the date of the 24/9/03.--BK.
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 10:32 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
These are some odd numbers below.
87 89 91 93 95 97 99 101 103 105 107 109 111 113 important resistance point to overcome115 117 119 121 123 Gann 1 x 1 125 45% angle 127 129 131 133 135 137 139 141 143 145 147 149 151 153 155 157 159 161 163 165 167 169 171 173 175 177 179 181 183 185 187 189 191 193 195 197 199 201
--------------------------------
More precisely I worked the 1x1 trendline out down below--just depends what figures you are using. I have put those in down below.
-------------------------------
1x1 trendline using vwap 74.453454 23/6/03 with Sydney adjusted for 10/1 165.3 is 1.24.4190543 -- September 3 2003, 11:30 AM AAP -- ERG recoups 46 million in cashIt had 42.5c in cash per share + 17 = 59.5 twice forecast cash equals 119--high on 17/7/03 118
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 11:37 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MTC are meeting tonight Australian time the 24/9/03--the Oz Market tomorrow the 25/9/03 (at least anyone who reads the minutes of the MTC meeting) gets to know what is happening with regrd to San Fran 2
http://apps.mtc.ca.gov/agenda/view/agenda.jsp?committee_id=8&agenda_id=197
a) TransLink® Phase II*
• TL_P2_Actions_Driver_final.doc
• TL_cover_memo.doc
i. Motorola Contract Change Order #45: Modification to Phase II Pricing
ii. BART Memorandum of Understanding and Funding Agreement
iii. Authorization to Issue Notice to Proceed for Phase II to Motorola
These items authorize moving forward into regional roll-out of the TransLink® universal fare card.
9. Closed Session:
The Commission will meet in closed session pursuant to Government Code Section 54956.9(a) to confer with counsel regarding the following existing litigation: (1) Cubic Transportation Systems, Inc. v. Metropolitan Transportation Commission, et al., San Francisco Superior Court; Case No. 03-419795; and (2) Bayview Hunters Point Community Advocates et al., MTC et al., U.S. Dist. Ct. N. Dist., S.F./Oakland Div. Case No. C-01-0750 (TEH); and (3) Communities for a Better Environment et al., v. Bay Area Air Quality Management District, et al., Cal. Sup. Ct., S.F. Case No. Civil No. 323849.
10. Reconvene in Open Session – Report – Proposed Action
Action: Approval
11. Public Comment
12. Adjournment/Next Meeting
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Next meeting
Wednesday October 22, 2003 10:10 AM
Joseph P. Bort MetroCenter
Lawrence D. Dahms Auditorium
101 Eighth Street
Oakland, California
IP: Logged
bonkers
Full Member
Posts: 120
From:
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 24-09-2003 11:42 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I know so much of trading is a mechanical thing--the shorts department and all of that--and a lot of people I communicate with--thats the only focus. To get a greater understanding of Translink and the politics behind what Cubic have done and are doing--a few posts have been done at Ozestock recently that give a greater understanding of ERG and what is happening and what has happened.--Well worth a read. Michael Irish has touched on the behind the scenes play--regrding Cubic--bring it to attention for anyone reading that is interested--in that above deeper insight.--BK.
IP: Logged
jwlabno
Full Member
Posts: 580
From: melbourne
Registered: May 2002
posted 25-09-2003 03:38 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bonkers,
My problem with ERG was that having learned all I could about it I created my own vision of what is erg going to do, and following my vision I ignored the price movement.
I watch this thread because I was in ERG and at the time I was following it very closely. Not to the level you are on but I had a very good idea about their business and what they are doing and all their contracts.
One thing I don't understand is why are you mutiplying or dividing prices by two, often several times, to arrive at some figures. For example if the stock's NTAB is 32c and it is trading at $1.28 it doesn't have much meaning to me apart from the fact that it is trading at Price to NTAB of 4. I don't see it being very significant in relation to the price movement.
But this could be because I find your comments hard to read soemtimes, without much spacing or other formatting they sort of flow continously and I feel I could be missing some of the points you are trying to make.
[
Next Thread |
Previous Thread |
Next Message |
Previous Message
]
|
Feedback: 