I agree, btw, about the different, parellel(ish) tracks and the likelyhood that she would be moved elsewhere rather sooner than later....
Michael would also have to be given his opportunity to choose a 2nd that pleased him.
Would it be Nikita? Personally - I'd bet not, actually, for a number of reasons. Despite Petrosian choosing her for that job earlier.
I don't think Nikita would wind up as Michael's second. I honestly don't think she had any relevant experience that would qualify her for the job, given what we knew about Madeline's duties. (There's that parallel career track thing again -- I don't think Nikita was following the same one as Madeline, any more than Madeline was following Paul's.)
I think that if Michael moved up to lead Section One (which wouldn't necessarily be the case, but let's say so for the sake of argument because it is at least a plausible scenario), Nikita might move into something more like Michael's old position -- a senior team leader, maybe even the top team leader, with supervisory authority over lower-level field operatives and a significant role in planning out missions. But they would have to choose someone else as the second -- either from within Section One or outside. Bringing in this third person, whoever it is, would have some very interesting effects on the Michael/Nikita dynamic, which could be lots of fun to play with.
As for Madeline, as Michael's former long-term supervisor, I think his success or failure as leader of Section One would be seen -- by others and probably even by her -- as reflecting upon her own skills, and that therefore she would be motivated to "help out" when it came to Section One achieving its goals. Thus, if she wound up somewhere within the bureaucracy of Oversight or Center (a likely outcome for her, I believe), she could be a very helpful ally of Michael's. Which would be an interesting change in dynamic from canon, as well.