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Date Posted: 07:23:13 10/31/03 Fri
Author: Malcolm
Subject: Re: Some observations
In reply to: Prince Metternich 's message, "Re: Some observations" on 19:38:07 10/30/03 Thu

There are a handful of competitive seats, though the largest number are in Saskatoon.

There are possibly four seats in Regina where the NDP is potentially vulnerable:

Regina South -- the NDP won this seat for the first time ever in 1991, with former Crown Prosecutor Serge Kujawa. As Serge became increasingly pixelated towards the end of that Legislature, he chose not to run again. The NDP candidate, Andrew Thomson, had actually run with the expectation of losing and going on to greater things later. Much to his surprize, he won in 1995 and was re-elected in 1999. The youngest member of the NDP caucus through most of that period, he was in an awkward spot since Roy Romanow, who was Attourney-General and Deputy Premier at 29, refused to consider anyone under the age of 39 for Cabinet. Appointed to Cabinet by Calvert, Thomson has performed reasonably well. The Liberal candidate is former Catholic school trustee, Debbie Ward, who has also served as president of the Saskatchewan School Trustees Association and of the national organization for Catholic school trustees. She is possibly the strongest Liberal candidate in the province. The SaskParty candidate is a real estate agent of no particular profile -- and the SP is running third in Regina. But if the momentum shifts to a sweep, he could be a factor.

Regina Wascana Plains -- Doreen Hamilton, the MLA since 1991, routinely topped the polls when she ran for city council and briefly served as mayopr of Regina when Larry Schneider was elected to Parliament one month before the civic elections in 1988. Unfortunately, her service in Cabinet was undistinguished, and she really got nailed by the SIGA scandal, where the CEO of the Saskatchewan Indian Gaming Authority had been getting outrageous compensation and expense allowance. Ironicaly, the fact that the story became a scandal was because the system had caught up to Dutch Lerat, so really Doreen was brought down by the fact the regulatory system worked. The seat also includes a significant number of neighbourhoods that are not natural NDP territory. The Liberals are running prominent businessman Frank Proto and the SaskParty another businessman, Dan Thibaut. This has the best chance of becoming a three way race between the major parties on election night.

Regina Qu'Appelle Valley -- United Church and Highways Minister Mark Wartman was first elected in 1999. He has been effective as an MLA and in Cabinet, but his SaskParty opponent, Darlene Hincks, has lots of exposure as a city councillor for about 20 years. Also, parts of this seat are not natural NDP territory.

Regina Walsh Acres -- This should be a safe NDP seat, but the former MLA, Lindy Kasperski, quit the party after he was challenged for the nomination. At the end of the day, a Safeway clerk outorganized Jason Nystrom, son of MP Lorne Nystrom to take the NDP nod. The problem is not so much the SP or Lib opponent as the possibility that Kasperski, running as an independent, may split the vote.

There are also a few rural seats worth watching:

In Saskatchewan Rivers, SaskParty incumbent Darrel Wiberg made an idiot of himself, first opposing, then supporting, then opposing, then supporting a forestry centre in Prince Albert. His position on this initiative switched so many times, most of us are cloudy as to where he ended up.

In Weyburn - Big Muddy, SaskParty incumbent Brenda Bakken should have been virtually invulnerable after she used he influence as a former franchisee to persuade Dairy Queen to use all Canadian beef in their hamburgers. But Hermanson is not letting her make hay with that issue. Her campaign almost seems to be getting undermined from the centre. The NDP have nominated Sherry Leach, prominent in the business and education communities -- who got some additional profile in the leadup to the election as a regular participant in a CBC TV political panel. This seat is the only one in the province sure to elect a woman MLA, since all the major party candidates are women.

North Battleford -- I'm hearing that Liberal incumbent Jack Hillson is in third. The NDP candidate, Len Taylor, is a former MP (the first incumbent to be re-elected in the NB seat since the 1950s, winning in 1988 and 1993) and he topped the civic ballot in 2000. The SaskParty has nominated a successful auto dealer. The cryptosporidium issue is important here, but Hillson was a member of the city council that chose not to upgrade the water treatment plant.

Wood River SaskParty incumbent Delmar (Yogi) Huygebaert is a complete loon. The former Snowbird stunt pilot wanders around the seat nattering on about the fight against communism. Still, it could be a long shot for NDP candidate Trevor Davies to knock him off this round. But Davies is young.

Melville Saltcoats will also be a three way race, maybe. But the Liberals will not be a factor here. The third candidate is former Tory MLA Grant Schmidt, who won the SaskParty nomination but was ousted as the candidate by the SP's utter contempt for democracy. Schmidt, it should be noted, won the nomination by a substantial margin, at a convention held as far as geographically possible from hi Melville power base. As a result, while it could be a three way race, chances are you can stick a fork in SaskParty candidate Bob Bjornrud (how do you get ben-rod out of that?). The NDP candidate is former Liberal Ron Osika.

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