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| Subject: Cricketer | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 18:36:29 05/01/13 Wed All that may be true, but I doubt it is that dramatic. I doubt that it matters anyway with what I see coming down the pike. Isn't it strange that we have pushed so many frontiers, in this case medical and financial. Say we do have an economic crash. Where will humanity get the "money" to throw at cures to throw at the cure for some of the super diseases just blossoming. This latest HN bird flu whatever it is called, has a 20+% mortality rate and spreads easily from human to human. The people who deal in population are mightily afraid that if one of these diseases gets away, that 95% or more of humanity will die. Each time it goes around it kills 20+%. (And the black death went through in waves Each time it killed 8-10%. If the total gets to 97% they are fearful that humanity may go extinct, being so scattered that they will be unable to find each other in order to breed back. Who will the Rothschild's et al have to lord it over then? (Assuming THEY survive.) I think this scenario is much more likely than the Jews taking over the world. Secondly, I can't believe they control $500Tillion. Or even 10% of that amount. All the land, buildings etc in the US does not add up to that 10% amount. With no insult intended toward New Zealand, since it is not a major economic world force, if they did control that much money, why would they putz around New Zealand when the US, a major force in the world, not be their target? They would pick up New Zealand without noticing. If Began did say these things, I point you to Hitler, who said these kind of things, and his 1000 year empire didn't last 1000 days. Ultimately, no person in power can remain in power unless the people below him support him at least tacitly through fear or whatever. You take orders from your boss because you think it will benefit you in one way or another. Slaves because of fear, Prisoners from fear but they will sabotage if possible. Would the whole world rollover and play slave if they could take over. Slaves only become slaves when THEY decide to, otherwise they are simply prisoners. In the end, I think expanded on rumors are simply a way of shuffling off blame onto some nebulous "Godlike" entity. I know I blame my generation for the current government controlled mess we are in here in N. America. The Pols bribed us with pennies of our own money, and lots of spin. We suckers bit. Now we pay the price. Nor do I think the seen afterwards coincidence of a Jewish lady becoming Miss World on Began's birthday proves or supports anything. I don't particularly like this sort of racism on my site, altho I have not attempted to find the ideas presented as wrong. If I could prove them wrong, I would forbid it out of hand, but it is not worth bothering about with so many crises looming on the horizon. Allen |
| Subject: The importance of planning 2 To be posted elsewhere | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 17:23:39 04/03/13 Wed The importance of planning 2 The world, particularly the US, Europe, and Japan, is sitting on a tipping point, a powder keg with about 50 lit fuses leading to it, induced through decades of active mismanagement, neglect, greed, and divorce from reality by humanity. A little voice says 'it can't happen here' but it shouldn't because history proves it likely will happen. Mankind’s mindset has become EXTREMELY skewed. Negative or any consequences are ignored. “Because I can”. (I have a gun and ‘can’ take him out, ignoring the fact that he might shoot back and get luckier, or because I have an urge and contraceptive pill, I can practice indiscriminate sex and reproduction, I can and will, ignore the negatives of disease and world overpopulation, or because it doesn’t kill me ‘right away’ I can, and will pollute my body by smoking, or pollute my surroundings by injecting pollutants) It has become so good that we expect all our problems to be solved by authority using simple 10 second sound bites, even when it is shown they do not work. Insanity is doing the same thing over and expecting different results. The number of man induced catastrophes available to comment on is pretty endless so I will limit myself to what I think is now unavoidable, failure of the financial system. The world financial system went bankrupt 17 August 2008. Remember the mortgage derivatives? August 17 was the day governments around the world put aside their huge differences to first, change the rules that decide how derivatives were handled on bank balance sheets and, in the easy cases pumped more free money into the banks than if they had bought all their shares on the stock markets. In some of the worst cases around the world, they simply “nationalized” or “absorbed” the banks into government. Even today, if the banking system was forced to account for derivatives, even in the same airy fairy way they were doing before August 17, probably most banks around the world would be belly up, even with all that “free” government money on board. Mortgage based derivatives are only a very small percentage of the total derivatives market. The total derivatives market has been estimated to be one and one half Quadrillion dollars. Nobody knows for sure. To put that in context, world GDP is estimated in the range of $60-70 trillion dollars. Divide 1,500,000,000,000,000 by 70,000,000,000,000 and you get about 11+ years of paying 100% of EVERY transaction made by everyone in the world to pay off those derivatives. (Which are ALL an obligation to pay, or loans with a fancy name.) Can you go 11+ years without money for food and other small things in life? Never mind the LOANS admitted to by governments, commercials, or individuals. The US government is admitting to $16,5 trillion in loans ON the books, and another $50-80 trillion in obligations OFF the books. (Not that they have the disease worse than most, but they are so huge and are the basis for the world monetary system, so nothing else really matters.) The hoo haw about the last raising of the debt ceiling or the US would default, proves conclusively that IF the US would default on the money then owed, how will they not default on a larger amount? There are nine or ten ways the US dollar may go to zero, but all are based on one thing, confidence. You take that piece of green toilet tissue for your assets or time because you have CONFIDENCE you can take it down to the grocers and exchange it for food. The moment you don’t believe (true or not) the grocer will exchange it for food, you will demand to be paid in something else, food or whatever. OR you will take your ball and go home. What will happen if confidence fails, as it surely must? It is already happening. My own estimate is that China has dumped about $1 trillion US dollars in two years. Cyprus is but a small, but frightening example. Well, first of all you had better have a garden. You will need food because nobody is going to have much food in our high rise, just in time, urban atmosphere. Currently the US imports 2/3 of its hydrocarbon needs. If the US dollar becomes worthless, how will the US supply its transportation needs, never mind the farmers to grow the food? That is today, not some distant, airy fairy estimate of hydrocarbon self sufficiency. People, like those in cities of 500,000 plus, are going to run out of groceries in literally hours. How long till the social structure breaks down and rioting starts? It will likely be worse in larger cities. Well, being a long way from the fan sounds like a good place to be. I am. It is over 100 km to the nearest population centre of over 100,000 people and over 50 km to the nearest collection of 40 or so houses. My nearest year round neighbour is over 10 km away. True, I have no electricity, cell phone coverage, land line, internet, or TV coverage. But I can get along without these things. I do now. True, I have a fairly significant store of some things like salt, which will become difficult to get, but by and large I am self sufficient. I plan to grab what is now costly (like two inch poly water pipe) but will be very unimportant at the time of Armageddon. I have been buying all sorts of fruit and nut trees, several hundred dollars of vegetable seeds. Etc. To research, I went to Antarctica supplies (and the far north) to see what was required to support life. It is in the tons. I also researched what pioneers found most valuable because they could not haul huge weights with them on their journey into the wilderness. (Sharp edges like saws and axes were golden. Surprisingly, many forgot seeds, just as many preppers/survivalists are forgetting can openers, needles and toilet tissue.) Now I had an idea what was valuable, I could plan accordingly. My novel, “Operation Phoenix” available in download, free sample read, and hard copy at www.AllenCurrie.ca expands on conditions that I foresee happening at Armageddon. More to come in a couple of weeks. Allen Currie |
| [> Subject: Re: The importance of planning 2 To be posted elsewhere | |
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Author: Bronwyn (Enjoyed our talk last tweek.) [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 23:16:53 04/22/13 Mon >The importance of planning 2 >The world, particularly the US, Europe, and Japan, is >sitting on a tipping point, a powder keg with about 50 >lit fuses leading to it, induced through decades of >active mismanagement, neglect, greed, and divorce from >reality by humanity. A little voice says 'it can't >happen here' but it shouldn't because history proves >it likely will happen. > >Mankind’s mindset has become EXTREMELY skewed. >Negative or any consequences are ignored. “Because I >can”. (I have a gun and ‘can’ take him out, ignoring >the fact that he might shoot back and get luckier, or >because I have an urge and contraceptive pill, I can >practice indiscriminate sex and reproduction, I can >and will, ignore the negatives of disease and world >overpopulation, or because it doesn’t kill me ‘right >away’ I can, and will pollute my body by smoking, or >pollute my surroundings by injecting pollutants) It >has become so good that we expect all our problems to >be solved by authority using simple 10 second sound >bites, even when it is shown they do not work. >Insanity is doing the same thing over and expecting >different results. >The number of man induced catastrophes available to >comment on is pretty endless so I will limit myself to >what I think is now unavoidable, failure of the >financial system. The world financial system went >bankrupt 17 August 2008. > >Remember the mortgage derivatives? August 17 was the >day governments around the world put aside their huge >differences to first, change the rules that decide how >derivatives were handled on bank balance sheets and, >in the easy cases pumped more free money into the >banks than if they had bought all their shares on the >stock markets. In some of the worst cases around the >world, they simply “nationalized” or “absorbed” the >banks into government. Even today, if the banking >system was forced to account for derivatives, even in >the same airy fairy way they were doing before August >17, probably most banks around the world would be >belly up, even with all that “free” government money >on board. Mortgage based derivatives are only a very >small percentage of the total derivatives market. > >The total derivatives market has been estimated to be >one and one half Quadrillion dollars. Nobody knows for >sure. To put that in context, world GDP is estimated >in the range of $60-70 trillion dollars. Divide >1,500,000,000,000,000 by 70,000,000,000,000 and you >get about 11+ years of paying 100% of EVERY >transaction made by everyone in the world to pay off >those derivatives. (Which are ALL an obligation to >pay, or loans with a fancy name.) Can you go 11+ years >without money for food and other small things in life? >Never mind the LOANS admitted to by governments, >commercials, or individuals. The US government is >admitting to $16,5 trillion in loans ON the books, and >another $50-80 trillion in obligations OFF the books. >(Not that they have the disease worse than most, but >they are so huge and are the basis for the world >monetary system, so nothing else really matters.) The >hoo haw about the last raising of the debt ceiling or >the US would default, proves conclusively that IF the >US would default on the money then owed, how will they >not default on a larger amount? > >There are nine or ten ways the US dollar may go to >zero, but all are based on one thing, confidence. You >take that piece of green toilet tissue for your assets >or time because you have CONFIDENCE you can take it >down to the grocers and exchange it for food. The >moment you don’t believe (true or not) the grocer will >exchange it for food, you will demand to be paid in >something else, food or whatever. OR you will take >your ball and go home. > >What will happen if confidence fails, as it surely >must? It is already happening. My own estimate is that >China has dumped about $1 trillion US dollars in two >years. Cyprus is but a small, but frightening example. > >Well, first of all you had better have a garden. You >will need food because nobody is going to have much >food in our high rise, just in time, urban atmosphere. >Currently the US imports 2/3 of its hydrocarbon needs. >If the US dollar becomes worthless, how will the US >supply its transportation needs, never mind the >farmers to grow the food? That is today, not some >distant, airy fairy estimate of hydrocarbon self >sufficiency. People, like those in cities of 500,000 >plus, are going to run out of groceries in literally >hours. How long till the social structure breaks down >and rioting starts? It will likely be worse in larger >cities. > >Well, being a long way from the fan sounds like a good >place to be. I am. It is over 100 km to the nearest >population centre of over 100,000 people and over 50 >km to the nearest collection of 40 or so houses. My >nearest year round neighbour is over 10 km away. >True, I have no electricity, cell phone coverage, land >line, internet, or TV coverage. But I can get along >without these things. I do now. > >True, I have a fairly significant store of some things >like salt, which will become difficult to get, but by >and large I am self sufficient. I plan to grab what is >now costly (like two inch poly water pipe) but will be >very unimportant at the time of Armageddon. I have >been buying all sorts of fruit and nut trees, several >hundred dollars of vegetable seeds. Etc. > >To research, I went to Antarctica supplies (and the >far north) to see what was required to support life. >It is in the tons. I also researched what pioneers >found most valuable because they could not haul huge >weights with them on their journey into the >wilderness. (Sharp edges like saws and axes were >golden. Surprisingly, many forgot seeds, just as many >preppers/survivalists are forgetting can openers, >needles and toilet tissue.) > >Now I had an idea what was valuable, I could plan >accordingly. My novel, “Operation Phoenix” available >in download, free sample read, and hard copy at >www.AllenCurrie.ca expands on conditions that I >foresee happening at Armageddon. >More to come in a couple of weeks. >Allen Currie |
| Subject: The importance of planning 3 To be posted elsewhere | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 17:10:39 04/03/13 Wed Importance of planning 3 As I outlined in my previous articles, I researched every combination of events I could think of, both “natural” (eg weather) and manmade. Once I established what I thought MIGHT happen, I could then prepare a reasonable response. I spent five years in this research. On the “natural events” side it was pretty clear to me that weather, and other things like solar flares, would be significant in my survival. With that in mind I started studying where in the world weather might be modified to lesser extremes. There were a number of candidates. As I said, I loved the idea of the west coast of North America as a go to ground, but changed my mind. One of the most significant modifiers are largish bodies of water such as the Great Lakes. Not really large enough to CREATE weather, but large enough to modify it. Proximity to the Great Lakes turned out to be key in my final selection. During the dirty, dustbowl 30’s, there was adequate precipitation in some areas, particularly where a currently existing warm weather zone poked its nose up from the US into Canada. The second reason I loved this area was that there existed millions of acres of undeveloped wilderness, satisfying my need for maximum isolation. Unfortunately it was all crown land with no purchases allowed. Show me a politician who doesn’t have a favorite job creation program, and I will show you a dead politician. All one has to do is show that one is creating or potentially creating jobs, plus follow the inane paperwork and rules attached to the project. Most jurisdictions look to mineral rights, so I will use that example. In this jurisdiction you buy a prospectors license ($25 and a valid – at the time - address.) plus staking tags (25 cents or $1 each, I forget. Four needed per 400 metre on a side claim. – you can stake up to one square mile of claims in one place.) Get your hands on a map of locations open for staking. (Every Department of Natural Resources – whatever it is called – has one, often on the net,) Cross compare available spaces with a detailed topographical map. If I were doing it, I would look for slightly hilly terrain with swampy areas in the valleys. Say with a beaver dam (which indicates both precipitation and running fresh(ish) water) The area above the dam, now or recently covered with water, will be quite flat, and GOOD soil. Kill off the beavers, or let the wolves do it for you. You now have a ready-made growing area as the beaver pond drains. After picking out two or three potentially good areas on the maps, you have to get to the area to view it personally. Detailed topographical maps usually show trails, fire access roads and things like skidoo trails. With an ATV or 4wheel drive vehicle you can usually drive in. (Remember you are going to have to make some kind of road from where you can drive to, to your camp-site) Survey out your claim, stake it and register it. (cost about $28 per 400 metre claim.) Now get an occupancy permit. Don’t know at what cost, but not very significant. Here you can “camp” on crown land anywhere without an occupancy permit, but you have to move your camp every 21 days at least 100 metres. The permit removes the obligation to move. Still, here, you may not have a “Permanent” structure. Any structure MUST be mobile, ie hitch up and move it. Break ANY ONE of their rules and they can turf you out. Now you are in a position to be able to haul in (By dozer, etc) say a 40 foot steel ocean going container as living quarters. (It is very difficult to modify the container way back in the bush with no electricity, etc. so have skids welded to the container and holes for windows cut back in civilization when you buy it. Ask me, I made that mistake.) It is easy to haul in some 2X4’s, some chipboard, painted, for interior walls, some quality insulation (Which is one of the few modern devices I am allowing myself to use on an ongoing basis because it has such a long life.) one or more wood stoves, (I paid $175 for two) a dry composting toilet (Scrounged at the dump) (I have no problem using modern, labor saving devices on a one time basis, but my first goal is to be self sufficient. Eg. I don’t object to using modern equipment to break land, but I want to be able to hand or horse till it. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.) Now I have a cosy, (I can easily roast myself out on the coldest days.) habitation, which with a few defensive measures, will be a pretty tough nut to crack should a roving group of bandits actually find me. (I do expect to be found about twice a year, Once by bad guys and once by friendlies, which I may be able to add to my community.) There are a myriad of regulations which can be a pain or a godsend depending on how you use them. Here, to maintain the claim you must do $400 per year of work on each claim. (And make appropriate filings) BUT you can do $800 and bank $400 for next year. The numbers were made up way back when $400 was a months wage. A single grizzled old prospector had to work almost all year to support 10 claims. Today one can claim work at $200 per day, so you can bank a lot. Rather than use man hours to inspect, they require photos and samples of what you found. (Read the regulations carefully.) So two days digging to get rock samples per claim gets you through the year. No taxes or other costs required. Free rent legally, and very few direct costs otherwise. My novel, “Operation Phoenix” (Available in Download, hard copy, and free sample read at www.AllenCurrie.ca ) takes a different location, but the same economic disaster I envisage and uses the same type of logic to cope with that downfall. Allen |
| Subject: Importance of planning 4 To be posted elsewhere | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 16:56:46 04/03/13 Wed The importance of planning 4 In my previous articles on this subject I mentioned the five years of research and planning that had gone into the project of bugging out. To plan one needs as much data as possible to determine what exactly one is planning for. It does not help to plan for a Tsunami when it is a drought that breaks your back. You are never going to be totally correct, but you must pick things that will serve you well in a variety of circumstances, whether you believe they may happen or not. I made up a huge spreadsheet with potential threats across the top, and down the side I listed items of interest. For example, food, which I further broke down as Food-Animals and Food plants. Then under each threat I listed advantages or detailed threats pertaining to that item. Example – Food; Animals, under the heading of financial collapse, Necessary both as food and motive power. Eventually I abandoned the spread sheets in favor of tabs in a loose leaf binder for each major requirement I had eg, food, security, energy, etc. Seven major groups. Then I broke food down to Animals, goats, pigs, or horses, etc. And finally pages for breeds (Pluses and minuses) what they required to be useful, (eg. Horses need harness) what they needed for maintenance, and how they might react to predators common in the area. (Donkeys hate bears and are pretty good at killing them, but their voice footprint is horrendous.) I eventually settled on: two hives of bees, four each (one male and three females) of rabbits, pigs, goats, dogs, and up to 25 birds. Definitely some chickens but possibly plus Guinea hens. (guinea hens are smaller, as are their eggs, but they rustle for food better and avoid predators better. They are also more prone to going wild and leaving the coop.) My other big want is horses, but they require a huge infrastructure. They are big hay burners and are prone to wander huge distances, often in all different directions. I would also need equipment such as plows to make them useful. Remember, I am on crown land and under the rules, I may not have anything permanent. I started my infrastructure by building some barns on skids. Eight by ten feet and I could call them storage sheds, so long as animals were not present. Take care of your animals and they will take care of you. I learned where a number of nearby specialty farms with these kind of animals were so they would likely have my choices available for a brief time at least. After TEOTWAWKI, government is unlikely to have an interest in some crazy old coot way back in the bush. I figure I have about a week to get my animal situation resolved. In the meantime, as long as I don’t have animals, I am not tied to one place to care for the animals, twice a day. My gardens required a bit different approach. Fruit and nut trees require several years (usually about seven) to mature enough to fruit. Perennials, such as horse radish (Flavor for foods) and rhubarb usually require large developed root systems to be prolific enough to be practical. Another time consumer. Annuals are all about viability of seeds. Kept carefully, viability decreases yearly, but some percentage will sprout. That gives me plants for new seed but not for food. Ah well, next year. Such are the problems of self sufficiency. I had to have a mobile garden, so I cut two 25 foot logs as skids, stripped the bark off some three inch saplings, (they keep better if they dry out) and nailed them to the skids. Then I raided dumps for four fridges, and 10 discarded bathtubs. One of the fridges, a really old baby with a heavy steel interior I reserved for a drying/smoking work. Put a 3-4 inch hole in the top and bottom, screen shelves in the interior and you have a smoker. Build a “sun collector house” (A triangular thing about 12 inches on a side and a length of about three feet. Lay it down on one of the 12 inch sides, put something black inside which will collect sun heat. The two sides that are up must be glass so the sun can get through to warm the black stovepipe or whatever you have used as black. Cap off both ends and add a two plus inch a pipe inlet near the bottom of one end and another similar sized pipe on the other end, near the top of the triangle, running to the bottom of your smoker, and now you have a dryer.)(The cooler air comes in the solar heater, heats and rises, flows upward into what is now a dryer) I found some flexible commercial clothes dryer aluminum pipe at the dump which worked well. The other fridges I cut as much sheet metal from (very useful stuff), punched holes in the back for drainage, and laid them on their backs on the sledge above. The bath tubs I just put in place on the sledge. I found an abandoned sawmill, and one end of the sawdust pile had composted well. I hauled that back and filled the fridges and bathtubs, mixing in some swamp peat moss, etc. Now I had some movable raised gardens. Perennials, like horse radish, are often quite invasive. In limited spaces such as I was using, they couldn’t invade outside their container. I also used large three foot pots for some of my fruit and nut trees. Now I can let them all grow for two or three years without worrying about anything but watering and over wintering. Pests have been a very minor problem, except for my gooseberry plants which I lose to something very strange, every year. Effective planning revolves around planning for what is actually going to happen in your circumstances. My research involved itself in what trends had happened in similar circumstances throughout history. My book, “Operation Phoenix” gives instances common in any collapse I have been able to research, going back to the Romans. It is available as a download, free sample read, or hard copy at www.AllenCurrie.ca Allen |
| Subject: Importance of planning 5 Posted elsewhere | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 16:50:29 04/03/13 Wed The importance of planning 5 A few years into my planning efforts, I finally realized that all my work was theoretical. True I had lived on a dirt poor farm, AND during the dirty 30’s so I knew some of the problems and solutions I was dealing with. More so than most people alive today. Still, I knew that theoretical was very prone to mistakes. I decided to move out to my camp, and immediately began to find mistakes. I had been accumulating “stuff” that I thought would be useful in commercial storage. I wanted to be rid of that constant storage expense. I moved everything from the storage unit to the 40 foot container that I was planning for my “house.”. Filled a fairly big percentage of the container. Then I realized that I couldn’t build false walls and insulate inside the container with all that stuff in there. I couldn’t move much of it outside into the rain, My plan to build barns and call them storage sheds was becoming real. Building using only one person is very much more inefficient than with two or more. Say you have a 5/8 panel of chipboard. It is fairly heavy, but one person can manage it. You want to get it tight under your rafters to stop insects. You get it tight, pick up a nail in one hand, a hammer in the other, and the darned thing always slips at least a little. Finally you have to build something, a sort of shelf, under it to hold it up so you can nail the chipboard in place. Two men could easily do it in half an hour or less. One man can spend five to six hours fiddling with it. Remember, I have no electricity or other useful things there. I don’t want to hire anyone who is going to know where my weaknesses are or even where it is located. I had very severely underestimated the time I needed. Then along came government with changes in the rules. The rule changes pretty much shot my first summer. One barn completed with only plastic sheeting over the roof, no shingles, no insulation or interior walls. Moreover, when I had been researching for best place I had noticed a tectonic fault line very close. I couldn’t find any mention of earthquake on it, ever. I decided it was pretty dormant. I hadn’t been there two months when we got a 3.4 quake. Not big in terms of California, the Philippines, or Japan but pointed out the shortcomings of my theories. In the spring I had come in earlier than the previous year with my four wheel drive vehicle. I got about half way to the camp along this skidoo trail from the nearest so called road, and hit a sink hole, literally quicksand. I spent over a week jacking, digging and “come alonging” my way out of this mess. Then three days filling in the holes that I had made. It was nearly a month before it dried enough that I could get in and out. Up here you top up the gas tank every chance you get, AND carry one or two jerry cans of gas plus tools and supplies at all times. Gas stations and stores are few and very far between. I thought I would like to over winter that fall, so I began to cut and split firewood. I built another sledge to insure the firewood would dry and stacked my firewood on it. I also transported in enough shingles and lumber to finish the second “storehouse”/barn. By now I was half way through July, so I finished my first barn and started on my second. I also found a quite straight tree to cut and skin the bark off for a fifty foot skid under my container. Snaking a 50 foot tree through the bush by hand is not easy or fun. By late September I had moved a lot of “stuff” from the container to the “Barns” by wheel barrow. Not all, but I had some room to work. I was pretty sour about the quality of my planning, particularly not having thought to install steel skids under the container, and to cut windows while it was back in civilization. While the container was light I decided to jack it up so I could get my skids under it. I got some large cement building blocks, and started going around the container from corner to corner with my 20 ton jack, raising the container about half an inch per set till I could get some blocks in the open space at each corner. It seemed a bit tippy and it slewed around, mostly off the blocks. I swore a lot and manhandled/jacked it back to where It should be. I thought that once I got it set that the weight would keep it in place. In the end I bought a number of 4X4 wood timbers and cross stacked them to make a two foot by three crib which was much more stable. We got our first snow. I puttered around securing the site and my gardens for winter for a couple of weeks. I figured at worst I could survive if I got stuck in camp, but it would be uncomfortable with no insulation in place. I did have 15 of these 18 litre fountain plastic jugs as potable water, a supply of things like spaghetti, which would have been boring but filling, my two woodstoves, sleeping bags, etc. It turned out that the snow came and went, came and went. The roads were horrendous. I went to a nearby motel (50+ km) and arranged a fairly reasonable rent so I could do a penultimate edit on my novel, “Operation Phoenix” and begin to consider how to market it. The novel is available as a download, hard copy, and a free sample read at www.AllenCurrie.ca It discusses, at a New York location, conditions that history says will develop. Allen |
| Subject: The importance of planning 6 Posted elsewhere | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 16:43:21 04/03/13 Wed The importance of planning 6 I cannot stress enough that when planning, knowing what you are planning for is paramount. It is remarkable how little attention N. Americans pay to the consequences of our thoughts and actions. If you drop a large stone on some bodies toe, you can predict 1) (S)he will likely try to avoid the rock, or 2) will yelp and try to remove toe from under stone. Where all too many fail is in the next probable reaction, possibly a punch in the nose. Many people won’t react further until the punch is on the way. Mankind, even when he is being irrational en masse is quite predictable. If there is a panic over available food, and the shelves are getting stripped of food, humans will buy or steal all sorts of items that they have never used and never will again for fear of missing out. In a tense situation logic circuits seem to be over-ridden by emotional cave man circuits. The army has learned this lesson well, and trains and trains so the training becomes the instinct, or tends to. Getting shot at is usually a tense situation. Let’s deal with the massively complex situation of the US dollar becoming worthless. (Which I, with a lot of broad financial/economic experience, believe will happen. When I don’t know. You cannot print money to infinity without consequence. Lenders only lend under the assumption that they will get paid back.) The first thing that will happen is that international trade will stop, completely. The US, and much of the world has become totally dependent on other parts of the world for special parts for the final product. For example, the only factory in the world manufacturing an essential component for the steering for the cruise missile is in China. In a totally chaotic atmosphere, how long would it take to build a factory in the US to produce this part? It ain’t gonna happen in a chaotic situation. The US imports two thirds of its hydrocarbon requirements. If the rest of the world decides the US dollar is worthless, who is going to sell hydrocarbons to the US? With no hydrocarbons, there will be no invasions. With no hydrocarbons there will be no food transported into the cities. With no hydrocarbons there will be no building of new factories. Even the money printing presses will shut down. With no food, some will wait for ‘gummint’ to do something, most will get out to agitate and riot, but some will try to fill their bellies in any way they can. Or any combination of the above. What most people refuse to look at is the domino effect. If the cruise missile part is not available, the whole cruise missile industry goes down. If the computer in a store goes out, everything shuts down. If the electricity goes off you won’t even be able to buy gas. The pumps are all electric. More insidiously, much of society operates on a “perceived entitlement”, a sense that what we have today is a birthright. If we don’t get it we have a “right” to get even with “the man”, usually by rioting, looting, or whatever. In a word we are looking at chaos. And we built it ourselves. It was easier to jump into the SUV to run down to the corner store than to walk a block. We grasshoppers fiddled the good times away by refusing to consider the longer term consequences. So, what do we do now? Right now, very few people are open to the idea of discussing this, let alone preparing for it. Let’s say you are a good little prepper and have laid by a stock of food, water, guns and ammo. Sooner or later you are going to run out, but more likely you are going to be out in your front yard to get some sunshine (You can’t stay inside your prison fortress forever) and an unfriendly gets the drop on you. I leave the rest to your imagination. We need to examine carefully the now cast in stone assumptions we have as a result of having spent our lives thus far in a consumer society. We will have to find ways of sustaining ourselves in the long haul. We will have to change, and people naturally resist change, especially if it means less of what we have become accustomed to. We will individually have to become nearer to self sufficiency for when we run out of food. Survivors will have more callused hands from producing food. One does not go out into the back yard, throw out a handful of seeds and two weeks later be living in the land of plenty. All living things are fussy about their living conditions. Do you know what ALL those conditions are for all your food supplies? Secondly, we have to get rid of this “I’m not involved” attitude. We must become a community, willing to fight and even die for each other personally. This won’t work with a “community” as large as America, or even New York city. (Even if you can define its limits.) It has to be a small community, maximum 2-300 people, where everyone is familiar with everyone else, enough so that they can rely on that person in a difficult situation. They have to know “Janet or Joe” is terrified of spiders or heights and can’t be relied on for logical reactions at height, but is very good at other things. Long term survival in the aftermath of systemic collapse will require community. A community which considers longer term consequences more than the world now does. My novel, “Operation Phoenix”, works toward this goal in the chaotic 30 days after an economic collapse. The sequel, if I can ever get it written, will show among other things, the difficulties of actually achieving such a goal. “Operation Phoenix” is available in hard copy, download and a free sample read at www.AllenCurrie.ca Allen |
| Subject: Jessica | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 04:33:52 03/31/13 Sun Jessica Your bank Infrastructure and legislation point is extremely important, and one that I have not seen anyone raise yet. Another factor that goes right along with that is the attitude of the banks. They are sooo much nearer to divinity than anyone else. Too big to fail, and all that. And yes, banks have managed to enslave everyone from government to individuals with debt. And we keep tightening our own chains by borrowing more and more. What percentage of the people you know have a (even a mostly) paid off house and credit cards that are paid off monthly? What percentage of the people you know are scrambling to make payments as they come due? This last crowd is enslaved. Nevertheless, banks survive only on the confidence of their depositors. On record, in the US, there are "solvent" banks that have been cleaned out and bankrupted in less than two hours. Therein lies the danger of Cyprus. A global bank run turning into a global currency run. It didn’t help that Spain “taxed” their banks three percent, relying on them to pass this cost on to their customers. If you have ever read the terms and conditions that you sign to open a bank account you know they can take your first born at will. Even in comatose N. America, some people began to think and change their habits. All of this works against the global banking system as it exists today. Personally, on the Monday following “Cyprus” I very anxiously watched the rest of Europe for a massive bank run. There were some withdrawls, but a general panic was avoided. However, confidence in banks took a huge hit around the world. People put their money in banks because it is safe. Suddenly it was apparent that their money was not safe from government. It won’t take many more straws to break this camel’s back. I disagree with the idea that a global banking system will solve this particular problem. There will always be some “weak dominoes” if only in some crazy dictatorship. Too many “tweeks” by individual country governments. Too many countries where graft is massively present. There is effectively no rule of law in these countries. I can’t see that changing. In fact, we currently have a fairly efficient global banking system under the US generated “SWIFT” system. But the US recently threw a straw on the camels back by cutting Iran off from that system as part of its power play to bring Iran to its knees. That woke governments around the world. Enough so that the BRIICs and eastern block countries are a long way to setting up their own clearing system which shuts out the US. The US was so astonished that they were not invited, and later refused admission, to these meetings. Too bad that they did not consider the consequences of their own actions. In support of the above, I offer your statement “Until then, my sock drawer works well” Allen |
| Subject: Jessica | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 08:47:25 03/21/13 Thu This Cypress thing is huge. It could easily be the straw that broke the camels back.. If not, the next straw will. Everyone knows that once the moronic governments get an idea that something is possible, they are going to use it, whether Cypress actually goes ahead or not. There is this huge pile of cash just siting there when "gummint" could be spending it. Irresistable. I am seeing confidence in banks falling all around the world. Of course, in the end Russia will bail them out, overtly or covertly. They will extract a high price, probably in deep water oil and gas drilling rights around the island. The comatose holi poli will sit back, another problem solved. It isn't solved in terms of GDP going forward, in fact it is exacerbated. May God bless us all, each and every one. We're gonna need divine intervention. Allen |
| [> Subject: banks again | |
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Author: Jessica [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 07:30:46 03/22/13 Fri Yes sure sounds like we're going to need it. Until be get to a unified global banking system and defined interactions, each "weak domino" is at risk. Tho from what I know, it's likely many many years away. Though internet run using bit coins etc will help drive it. Unfortunately, I think the big banks, won't react well. (they just have too much legacy infrastructure and banking legislation) Kinda like rail, when airplanes came along. There'll still be a (smaller) place for mainstream banks (like big biz) but a lot of people would certainly rather "take off" from them into better/quicker/cheaper, if there's a reasonable alternative. (which isn't here yet:( Until then, my sock drawer works well ..J |
| Subject: Cyprus thoughts? | |
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Author: Jessica [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 06:26:29 03/21/13 Thu My goodness, what do you think about all the Cyprus issues? Looks pretty dire to me, with lots of ramifications (again) |
| Subject: Research and planning is the most important thing you can do | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 11:26:56 03/20/13 Wed The End Of The World As We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) will undoubtedly change the life of anyone alive today more than any life has been changed in history, if only because we have climbed higher than ever before in history, and now have further to fall. A couple of examples leap to mind. In the 1500’s many things had to be reinvented that were in existence in the 900’s before the dark ages. 2) In 1990 when the USSR went down, the hi-tech things like atomic submarines sat and rusted and polluted to the extent that Russia INVITED the US to come in and rescue them. The fact that we have hi-tech does not necessarily mean that it will survive. 3) How many people alive today can even imagine how to cope with even the conditions that existed in the dirty 30’s. As one of the people who can remember, I KNOW how few. Damned few. And they are all 75 or older. In Feb. 1987 when someone jiggled the jigsaw enough that a picture of where we were headed formed for me, I began to prepare. I bought paper gold thinking I would be rich after. During the crash of 1987, I was serene. As the crash unfolded I learned, a LOT. Gold was not enough, and certainly not paper gold. I had to be able to bug out too, as well as being somewhat self sufficient. Then it became apparent that being in an isolated area was far better. I picked the west coast where mankind has survived for ten thousand years, until I was reminded that the Juan de Fuka tectonic plate I was thinking of residing on was being ground to bits and driven under the North American plate. Besides it was 4,000 miles away and packing and moving there was not going to be accomplished overnight. Ooops. I was missing a whole lot of things I should be thinking about. Some were natural, some were man made. Being a glider pilot, I stay aloft by knowing a bit more about weather than the average bear. What I knew persuaded me that, in human terms, great weather change was coming. I studied the real experts, not the five second training, instant screaming types and found a couple of very significant probable trends. No point in moving to an area that was going to turn to desert or an ice capped island just about the time you got your settling in problems solved which will take about five years. 1) The world is adding 300 million new mouths to feed each year. Glider pilots know the easiest way to find rising air is to find a nice black ROOFTOP, or blacktopped highway. The sun heats it more quickly than the surroundings producing hot, rising air. CO2 does retain heat, but the real experts say it only contributes two percent to global warming. Much of the balance comes from the forests being turned to black earth to feed that extra 300 million new mouths per annum. That alone, even in the short term, is enough to effect significant climate change. 2) There exists an ocean desert off the coast of Chile which now just touches Chile’s west coast. Ocean deserts are especially vicious. One land based weather station in that desert has never recorded ANY precipitation in its 100+ year existence. The probability is that that desert will expand within the next decade. The current increasing drought conditions in Texas and elsewhere lend credence to this theory. That desert is projected to expand east half way through Brazil, then due north into the US to about the latitude of California’s north border, then west out to sea. Will the loss of the SW quarter of the USA (and central America) affect world food production? How about those who bug out to the mountains? It certainly will affect weather permanently throughout North America, if it comes to pass that permanent hot desert will create a high which will deflect the jet stream. The jet stream now varies from moving more or less east near the Canadian border to continuing south along the Rockies, bringing precip to the western US before heading east and then north. With the high in place, it would likely track directly east about the latitude of the Canadian border. Not good for anyone living in what may become desert. 3) I also found that there were concerns about the Japan ocean current which runs more or less north-east to North America, then turns north to Alaska, where it cools sufficiently that the water becomes saline enough that the current sinks and begins its long journey back to the equator to pick up more calories of heat. (The Gulf stream, which flows up the Atlantic coast is slowing too) Water can carry huge quantities of calories per cubic whatever. Global warming plus the addition of more fresh water was disturbing the saline balance of the current to the point that the current is in danger of not turning down for the return trip, thus stopping it entirely. Mother nature will still try to move those calories and her only tool to do so will be air, which holds many less calories per cubic whatever. This means she must move a far greater volume, faster. That means unprecedented storms. Fast moving hurricanes will likely become daily events. True, the EASTern slopes of the Rockies will probably benefit as the warm, humid air is pushed up and over the Rockies, cooling it enough that precipitation is the result. Not that we can be positive these things will happen, but now we know there is a risk, it would be foolish to ignore it. I began to seriously look at every possible future I could think of, both from natural causes such as solar flares to, man-made causes such as financial collapse. AND to make notes. These notes and my ‘immediate risk’ analysis led directly to my novel “Operation Phoenix” available as both a download or as a hard copy at www.AllenCurrie.ca. A free sample read is available. More to come in a couple of weeks. Allen Currie |
| Subject: Excerpt from article | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 07:35:09 02/13/13 Wed This just out on the 8 of Feb. I found the beginnings on Sinclair’s site, jsmineset.com FED HAS BOUGHT MORE U.S. GOV'T DEBT THIS YEAR THAN THE TREASURY HAS ISSUED Here is the link: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/fed-has-bought-more-us-gov-t-debt-year-treasury-has-issued Here are the appropriate links referenced in the article. http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np Federal Debt outstanding as of the end of the calendar year 2012: 16,432,730,050,569.12 Federal Debt outstanding as of February 6, 2013: 16,479,954,658,103.57 Amount of Increase in Debt: 47,224,607,534.40 If I did my math correctly, the size of the Federal Debt increased $47.224 Billion since the beginning of the year. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ Now look at the Fed Balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries over that same period. Fed Treasury Holdings as of Wednesday, January 2, 2013: 1,666,118 Fed Treasury Holdings as of Wednesday, February 6, 2013: 1,717,182 Amount of Increase in Fed Treasury Holdings since the beginning of the year: $51.064 Billion That is $3.879 BILLION MORE than the US Treasury has issued this year! Again, I have no idea how this is supposed to be possible but the numbers are what they are. Scotty beam me up. We are freakin’ doomed! ******************* The reason is simple. To “manage” interest rates the US must interfere in the market place. Interest rates are artificially low now, and the price of bonds is artificially high. In “managing” the market they either buy or sell bonds at their determined price. In this case the US has to buy anything offered at their specific price to avoid the price dropping which would raise interest rates. Some people who want out of the US Dollar (Probably China) have worked this out and are dumping their bonds at auction time. Additionally, if the US doesn’t buy, the auction will be a failed auction, and THAT would definitely rattle the market of “the worlds reserve currency” The end is nigh. |
| Subject: Exerpt from article | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 07:25:25 02/13/13 Wed This just out on the 8 of Feb. I found the beginnings on Sinclair’s site, jsmineset.com FED HAS BOUGHT MORE U.S. GOV'T DEBT THIS YEAR THAN THE TREASURY HAS ISSUED Here is the link: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/fed-has-bought-more-us-gov-t-debt-year-treasury-has-issued Here are the appropriate links referenced in the article. http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np Federal Debt outstanding as of the end of the calendar year 2012: 16,432,730,050,569.12 Federal Debt outstanding as of February 6, 2013: 16,479,954,658,103.57 Amount of Increase in Debt: 47,224,607,534.40 If I did my math correctly, the size of the Federal Debt increased $47.224 Billion since the beginning of the year. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ Now look at the Fed Balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries over that same period. Fed Treasury Holdings as of Wednesday, January 2, 2013: 1,666,118 Fed Treasury Holdings as of Wednesday, February 6, 2013: 1,717,182 Amount of Increase in Fed Treasury Holdings since the beginning of the year: $51.064 Billion That is $3.879 BILLION MORE than the US Treasury has issued this year! Again, I have no idea how this is supposed to be possible but the numbers are what they are. Scotty beam me up. We are freakin’ doomed! ******************* The reason is simple. To “manage” interest rates they must interfere in the market place. Interest rates are artificially low now, and the price of bonds is artificially high. In “managing” the market they either buy or sell bonds at their determined price. In this case they have to buy anything offered at their specific price to avoid the price dropping which would raise interest rates. Some people who want out of the US Dollar (Probably China) have worked this out and are dumping their bonds at auction time. Additionally, if the US doesn’t buy, the auction will be a failed auction, and THAT would definitely rattle the market of “the worlds reserve currency” The end is nigh. |
| Subject: An excerpt from Chris Matenson’s PeakProsperity.com | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 03:30:52 02/13/13 Wed Personally I would likely phrase some of these differently, however my way nis njot always the right way. ****************** If you find you assess the risks at or above the 'moderate' level (which I do), then consider strongly the following guidance: • Exchange paper assets for tangible ones. Acquire exposure to the precious metals; we recommend having at least 10% of your net worth in gold and silver (for those new to owning precious metals, you may want to read our buyer's guide). Above that, if possible, invest in productive hard assets. Holdings like farmland, timberland, energy deposits, and mineral/water rights are assets that will produce units that will generate an income for you. • Find a sympatico adviser to manage any remaining paper wealth. For many reasons, most of us will still keep a percentage of our wealth in the stock and bond markets (in retirement/pension accounts, 529 plans, etc). If you're in the defensive camp, make sure the adviser managing your money is, too. There are several we endorse, but we're impartial about whether you work with them or not. The important point here is to work with the adviser whose outlook is most closely aligned with yours. • Cultivate resiliency. Most Peak Prosperity readers are well-aware of our recommendations here. Start at the individual level to prepare both physically and emotionally so that whatever the future brings, your quality of life is as least impacted as possible. • Cultivate community. Whatever your plans, a support network will help you achieve them better, and likely faster, too. Plus, it gives you the added insurance of assistance should your best-laid plans not play out as you expect them to (which happens frequently). Invest in fostering collaborative relationships in your neighborhood, or join existing communities relevant to your location or interests. • Defend your income stream(s). Assess your employment situation – how vulnerable is your income? Explore ways to make yourself more valuable to your employer, add additional source(s) of income, and/or create your own business. Steady income makes challenging times much easier to bear by giving you the flexibility to explore different approaches that may work better for the new reality. Without that ability to absorb failure, your options are often much more limited. |
| Subject: Robert Wiedemer: Awaiting the Aftershock | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 14:05:36 12/09/12 Sun I could not agree more, except possibly with the timeframe. The main thesis in Aftershock is that these bubbles – this dollar bubble and this government debt bubble – will burst. It is not as if it will not burst for 15 or 20 years. We say it is somewhere in two to four years. You need to be prepared for it. The debt will always be funded as long as the Federal Reserve stands willing to buy all the bonds that the government sells. At some point, that creates inflation: that pushes up interest rates. The Fed will fight those interest rates going up. At first, they can do it. They just print more money. That keeps interest rates down, but ultimately that inflation will force them up. We cannot just pull the money out and raise interest rates now; it's going to pop the real estate and stock bubbles. What is going to happen is the Fed is going to lose control of those interest rates. When you print too much money, it gets you control short-term, but it is a recipe for losing control long-term. With those interest rates going up, what is going to pop? The stock market and real estate bubbles. All of that is what kicks off the big problem going forward. Normally you would say the bond market is going to be the problem, but I would tell you that it is actually going to be more stocks and eventually even real estate combined. Then ultimately, the bond market starts to go down, and down quickly once it starts. When the dam finally breaks, it will break quickly. Literally, it is in a matter of months or certainly no more than a year once it really starts to go. You get very, very high inflation. We could have stock market holidays and things like that. The big difference between now and the depression is that the government is also in trouble at this point. We are really not going to have a huge failure until the government kind of comes to its wits' end. It will, but it comes as a last massive orgy of money printing to try to save everything - unlike anything you have seen yet. QE1, QE2, QE3 is nothing like what the Fed has to do when this thing starts to fall. They have to print, buy, and buy, and buy, and try to keep up the falling house. They will not be able to do it, but that will be the reaction. Then at some point, it is not going to work and the whole thing goes. |
| Subject: Jessica a PS | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 14:00:19 11/16/12 Fri I just noticed I have not really answered your question, only through implication. I haven’t really had time to work the numbers for a few years, but I certainly did not pay any attention to the US elections. Romney can thank his lucky stars he lost. History will certainly not treat Obama kindly, although mostly it is not his fault. In fact spending, as a percentage, has increased less under Obama than any other president since Regan. It is, in my mind, highly likely that the US will go down on his watch. Two things make it certain for me that the trend I saw when I last worked the numbers, is reality. 1) The hoo-haw when the debt ceiling was last under discussion proves conclusively that there is no turning back. It was stated again and again by officials that “if the debt ceiling is not raised, the US will default.” If the US cannot service its debt at a lower level, how can raising the debt ceiling correct that situation. (sorry, I can`t figure out how to ``shift`` my puter back to give me a question mark) The US debt is now a Ponzi scheme requiring an ever increasing number of suckers to stay afloat. The magic of compound interest has caught up with the US. I don`t know if this is now true or yet to come shortly, but if the US were to stop ALL social programs AND military spending, and devote the entire resulting revenue to the debt, the debt would continue to grow. (even at todays low interest rates)`Think what would happen if the US were to go into recession and revenue were to fall. Or if interest rates were to go back up. (And no, the government has no tool to CONTROL interest rates in the market except moral suasion or jawboning. Something they are VERY good at. They even have most people convinced they CAN control interest rates. They can`t. The only thing they can control is the rates that they will lend money to the banks at. Normally the markets will efficiently convert that rate to the desired rate. But in abnormal times, like 1929, it did not and does not work.) 2) The world financial system went bankrupt Aug. 17, 2008. Central banks around the world grouped together to give money to the banks, and worse, to change the rules so the banks could both leave these failed assets OFF the books and to legally protect the banks from some of their own stupidity. The mortgage derivatives were blamed, and while certainly they were the trigger, they were only one small part of the estimated one and one half QUADRILLION dollars of risk in the total derivatives market. Total GDP of the US runs in the area of $15 trillion, and a quadrillion is 1000 trillion. Total GDP of the WORLD runs in the area of $50 trillion. Banks are banks in name only and most are not solvent by even the most lax normal rules. Even those who never touched a derivative ever, would be taken down by the zillions of dollars in daily clearings of checks written by customers and the resulting amounts that would be owed by banks who went under because of derivative exposure to those pure souls who had wisely never played with derivatives. We are today seeing the results of the derivative debacle in European banks and the fruitlessness of the attempt by governments to prop up their banking system which was more exposed than most. The US banks are not in much better shape, and then only because they did manage to sell a good deal of that risk to the European banks. There are other factors and stories, but in my mind it doesn`t really matter who won whichever election, US or China. Mother nature is much more powerful than either, or both together, and it is not worth wasting time thinking about. Allen |
| [> Subject: Re: Jessica a PS | |
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Author: Jessica [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 14:36:00 12/04/12 Tue Yup, the world has been "bankrupt" for many years. We're just rearranging the deck chairs, lol. In the last couple of decades, it's the first time that we've been able to mount such debt and even NOTICE that we havehuge debt (everyone tries to hide it) In Centuries gone by, there certainly has been less debt, as a % of ability to pay and few (who didn't have $, really didn't noticed as they were trying to get bread to live. So IMHO (In my humble opinion) China holds large weight & we'll see if they stand the test of moving from third world status. It's always messy. Then India and most interestingly, if Russia ever stops being the wild west, I think they'll be a strong player. I do love Canada, but am afraid of limited view politicians. Where is Sir Arthur Currie and Churchill when we need them now?? (passed, I know) We need some serious hero's in these times Comments welcome J _______________ >I just noticed I have not really answered your >question, only through implication. > >I haven’t really had time to work the numbers for a >few years, but I certainly did not pay any attention >to the US elections. Romney can thank his lucky stars >he lost. History will certainly not treat Obama >kindly, although mostly it is not his fault. In fact >spending, as a percentage, has increased less under >Obama than any other president since Regan. It is, in >my mind, highly likely that the US will go down on his >watch. > >Two things make it certain for me that the trend I saw >when I last worked the numbers, is reality. > >1) The hoo-haw when the debt ceiling was last under >discussion proves conclusively that there is no >turning back. It was stated again and again by >officials that “if the debt ceiling is not raised, the >US will default.” If the US cannot service its debt at >a lower level, how can raising the debt ceiling >correct that situation. (sorry, I can`t figure out how >to ``shift`` my puter back to give me a question mark) >The US debt is now a Ponzi scheme requiring an ever >increasing number of suckers to stay afloat. The >magic of compound interest has caught up with the US. >I don`t know if this is now true or yet to come >shortly, but if the US were to stop ALL social >programs AND military spending, and devote the entire >resulting revenue to the debt, the debt would continue >to grow. (even at todays low interest rates)`Think >what would happen if the US were to go into recession >and revenue were to fall. Or if interest rates were to >go back up. (And no, the government has no tool to >CONTROL interest rates in the market except moral >suasion or jawboning. Something they are VERY good at. >They even have most people convinced they CAN control >interest rates. They can`t. The only thing they can >control is the rates that they will lend money to the >banks at. Normally the markets will efficiently >convert that rate to the desired rate. But in abnormal >times, like 1929, it did not and does not work.) > >2) The world financial system went bankrupt Aug. 17, >2008. Central banks around the world grouped together >to give money to the banks, and worse, to change the >rules so the banks could both leave these failed >assets OFF the books and to legally protect the banks >from some of their own stupidity. The mortgage >derivatives were blamed, and while certainly they were >the trigger, they were only one small part of the >estimated one and one half QUADRILLION dollars of risk >in the total derivatives market. Total GDP of the US >runs in the area of $15 trillion, and a quadrillion is >1000 trillion. Total GDP of the WORLD runs in the area >of $50 trillion. Banks are banks in name only and most >are not solvent by even the most lax normal rules. >Even those who never touched a derivative ever, would >be taken down by the zillions of dollars in daily >clearings of checks written by customers and the >resulting amounts that would be owed by banks who went >under because of derivative exposure to those pure >souls who had wisely never played with derivatives. >We are today seeing the results of the derivative >debacle in European banks and the fruitlessness of the >attempt by governments to prop up their banking system >which was more exposed than most. The US banks are not >in much better shape, and then only because they did >manage to sell a good deal of that risk to the >European banks. > >There are other factors and stories, but in my mind it >doesn`t really matter who won whichever election, US >or China. Mother nature is much more powerful than >either, or both together, and it is not worth wasting >time thinking about. > >Allen |
| Subject: Jessica | |
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Author: |Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 09:52:16 11/15/12 Thu Jessica Thanks for posting what is a very interesting question. Personally I have been preparing for my scenario by being a very long distance from the fan. Way back in isolation with no electricity, cell or land line phone possible, etc. etc. I seldom am out more than once a week. So I am not really current with details, particularly the abilities of whoever will head the politibureau or whatever it is called in China. Whoever gets the job has a great deal of problem with external circumstances, not only in China, but more importantly around the world. The stats I have seen indicate Chinas growth is slowing dramatically. I don't need stats to know that Europe is among the walking dead. AND it is spreading. The social unrest says it all. The situation is comparatively severe. I say comparatively because people are always loath to give up benefits that they have come to think of as `rights`. Europe-Greece will get worse. Neither China nor Obama has the power to prevent the tide coming in, no matter how many orders they give. North America is on this path too. (No matter how much the stats are fudged.) (Mind you, I don`t put ANY faith in government stats from anywhere.) The spiral is downward, a world death spiral. Canada`s finance minister has just come out with a line that is brilliant on one side, but in the long run will just add to the problem. `We are going to concentrate on those things we can control and ignore those things we can`t` Obama is still trying to save and-or control the world. Honorable attitude but not possible. In the long run that attitude is protectionist and as it grows around the world, there will be more and more interest in personal, immediate self protection, and less and less interest in protecting the worlds long term best interests. Win this immediate battle at all costs, even if it kills us all. China`s new leadership is under the same gun as all the other world leaders. It is unfortunate that all world leaders are very theoetical, with each their own hoary theories. They belong to a different community than the ordinary, on the ground people. They have different goals and values. (which is not to say the ordinary people theorists have better solutions, just different, even if dealing more directly with real on the ground problems.) Someone wrote that there are problems and predicaments. Problems have good and bad SOLUTIONS. Predicaments have only the lesser of two evil OPTIONS. America, and most of the world is sure that a solution to the financial PROBLEMS is sure to be found. We are far too far past being just a little bit pregnant for a solution. China will deal with this badly. Allen |
| Subject: Leadership | |
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Author: Jessica [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 07:33:24 11/13/12 Tue Allen, Care to comment on the global financial impact/ramifications of the soon to be change in the Chinese leadership? Along with the reelection of Obama? I personally thought Jiang Zemin (2 leaders ago) did an amazing job with a near impossible situation, despite the awful things he put his people through. In times of extreme financial change, I always like the people who have been through it a few times. ie I wouldn't want to go into "financial war" with a person who hasn't even used a pea shooter, lol Thoughts welcome J |
| Subject: The whirld, perfect storms, and other dizzy subjects | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 14:56:43 09/25/12 Tue Well, the first unofficial official signpost that the financial end is nigh has come and gone. Some lord high mucky muck, probably the president of the ECM or its central bank, along with a German spokesperson much nearer to divinity than I am, have stood firm and brave, and King Kanut like have ordered the tide not to come in. “We will not allow the ECM to be broken up.” Like all good bureaucrats they are doing exactly the right thing (for some circumstances) at absolutely the worst possible time. Despite the attempt to rally support and funds from the rest of the world, Germanies best probable option at the moment would be to withdraw from the ECM, forcing everyone to take their medicine. But politics is about power and the certainty of those in power that they have not only the best, but had the only viable solution for any of humanities problems right down to the heartbreak of psoriasis. I may have said this before here, but the world financial system reminds me of the heavy smoker of 40 or more years begins to cough blood. (Our leaders, AND WE have been irresponsibly spending tomorrows earnings today for even longer than 40 years, in fact since the start of WWII. Doctor B knows, or maybe he doesn’t, that it is terminal cancer but decides that the patient is better off not knowing and better living in a fairy land, so he finds a soothing name for what he is about to do, (Q.E.) and prescribes double the dose of tobacco smoke, saying it will calm the patients nerves, and secretly hoping the tar will cover the cancer cells, thus killing them. (Print and or otherwise borrow even more money.) Pain killers cure symptoms, not diseases. As much as he wants to believe, the patient is coughing more and more blood and he has this niggling doubt that something serious is wrong. He needs ever more medicine to calm his nerves. Another factor, even less recognised by humanity is world overpopulation. Way back in the ‘50’s some scientists got curious about the causes of many animal species population rise and fall as it did. Being a farm boy in the foothills of the Rockies I was familiar with the phenomena. The wild rabbit population would grow and grow and about every seven years there came a mysterious die off. That year you had to watch your farm animals very carefully because the now starving predators, the wolves, lynx, cougars, etc. were coming down from the mountains in search of food. The scientists began by studying the rise and fall of the population of wolves and then deer on an island, thinking that since they were on an island there could be less outside influence. They watched closely and even did autopsies on all the dying animals from whatever cause. True enough they did not have the medical tools we have today, but this was the most recent study I know of. The only thing they could find was that in the lead up to the population peak and subsequent mysterious die off, was enlarged adrenal glands, suggesting the animals were under some kind of stress. They moved the experiments inside using rats as subject animals. They provided a large room, all the food, water and bedding that the rats wanted. Rats have a very rigid social structure. They almost never fight among themselves. The family unit is quite sacrosanct, with both sexes being very monogamous and faithful. Mothers are especially caring and always make good nests. As the population grew the social structure began to break down. Autopsies began to show enlarged adrenal glands. Males began to mount males. Adolescent rats began to form gangs which terrorized the population. Females did not make good nests, just scattering a few straws around. They would pick up a kit, obviously planning to move nest, get distracted, drop the kit and wander off. Infanticide and cannibalism became rampant. Formerly courtship rituals involved the male chasing the female around, nipping at her tail. Eventually she would dive into her burrow and the male would stand in front of the burrow, hopping from foot to foot. If she poked her nose out and sniffed, he would follow her into the burrow and mate. If not, eventually he would wander off. As the population grew, attractive to rats, female rat tails were bitten until bone showed. The male no longer waited outside the burrow, but entered and mated. Then came the mysterious die off. And the social structure returned to what it was. Think of it. If you are in a crowded elevator, you stand rigidly at attention saying with your body language “I am not touching you because I want to but because the situation forces it.” Anyone who has ever visited Japan knows how convoluted societies artificial politeness can get as 125 million citizens try to exist on a very narrow strip of coastline on a relatively small series of islands where it is so difficult to have a personal space. The scientists found that if they added ceramic roof tiles as sort of a high rise nesting space, they could raise the ultimate numbers of the population significantly before the mysterious die off happened, despite the much smaller personal space than the the rats needed normally. It seemed that the existence of walls was used to delineate acceptable personal space. I worried after AIDS first appeared that our great die off had come. The stats said that during the expected four year lifespan of an HIV infected person, it could be expected on average that they would infect two others per year, an exponential increase. The medical community did yeoman duty finding a way of controlling HIV, but HIV is still with us. Current estimates are that 25 million people currently alive with HIV infection. If something happens like financial collapse to make the drug industry go down, how long before AIDS resumes its exponential progress., Overpopulation also has a hand in many other of mankinds current woes. With the exception of a time when the black death swept the world (and that was a long time ago) mans population has never declined. Neither we nor our leaders have personally experienced a declining population. All our models, particularly the economic, stress population growth as a panacea. In fact, few people alive today have experienced even as mild a life reversal as the dirty thirties. Even with the tide raising all boats, our leaders have a very mediocre track record making economic decisions. The only reason there are not pitchforks in the streets is that the politicos are much better at spin than they are at economics. We are adding 300 million new mouths to feed each year. Needless to say, that means a lot of new land going under the plow. You can argue all you want about manmade global warming and CO2. The shrill instant experts on weather, whose education on the matter consists of about ten seconds of listening to another equally knowledgeable expert, seem at odds with the solar experts who have spent lifetimes studying the matter. Apparently both Mars and Venus have recently warmed by three degrees C, whereas earth has only warmed by two. As well, NASA has just announced that the UN weather model is faulty. Satellites show the world is radiating far more infrared heat than predicted by the model. As a glider pilot I know that forests are great collectors of heat. As far as I am concerned the two percent warming the solar experts attribute to CO2 is washed by the reduced heat storage of the forests being cut to provide food for 300 million new mouths. I do believe firmly that the change in albido of the earth produced when these nice green forests are cut down to be replaced by black earth, black industrial roofs, and blacktop highways is a major contributor to global warming. The solar experts are predicting global cooling. In total I am merely predicting changing global weather patterns. It is clear even only looking at the residue as glaciers recede that changing weather patterns have been the rule rather than the exception for most of the life of the planet. Looking at the records, our weather has been exceptionally benign over the last fifty years, and particularly during the thirty years to the mid ’20 zeros. It is certainly due to change. Undoubtedly mankind is an element in weather change, but to what extent, I as a mere human, cannot state. For instance, there is an ocean desert just to the west of Chile. Its edge just touches the western beaches of Chile. Ocean deserts are especially vicious. One weather station on that desert has NEVER reported precipitation in its over 100 year history. I saw a forecast saying that this desert would move east and expand through the western part of Brazil to the SW quarter of the US within a decade or two. The recent droughts in Texas et al would tend in my mind to confirm that forecast. How much of the worlds current food production currently comes from the SW quarter of the US and the western half of Brazil, never mind the various other countries like Chile, Peru, and Cuba that would be effected by such a desert? Then too, the world overpopulation even affects our forecasts and predictive models. In living memory, or even written history, we have always faced growth. From scientific inventions to population growth, we have lived in a growth atmosphere. (excepting the dark ages which are well worth studying.) Not only do we use ever present growth as a cornerstone in all our predictive models, we neither know how to, nor even want to consider negative growth or even stability. We have no experience with, nor have we even given thought to negative conditions. It might be wise to give a passing nod to the risk profile that is developing for humanity. Allen |
| Subject: THE ZIONIST CONTROL OF NEW ZEALAND | |
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Author: cricketer [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 12:39:22 09/01/12 Sat THE ZIONIST CONTROL OF NEW ZEALAND -- cricketer, Saturday, September 01, 12:33:00pm [1] quote from — Menachem Begin - Israeli Prime Minister 1977–1983 Our race is the Master Race. We are divine gods on this planet. We are as different from the inferior races as they are from insects. In fact, compared to our race, other races are beasts and animals, cattle at best. Other races are considered as human excrement. Our destiny is to rule over the inferior races. Our earthly kingdom will be ruled by our leader with a rod of iron. The masses will lick our feet and serve us as our slaves.” The protocols of Zion state jews are men Goyim are not men. Harold Rosenthal says, "Most Jews do not like to admit it, but our god is Lucifer...and we are his chosen people. Lucifer is very much alive." According to the Jewish NZ web site there are only 7000 Jews in NZ. That is approximately one in 600 yet they dominate power. Which makes what follows statistically impossible whilst at the same time being frighteningly true. The Zionist Control of NZ is almost complete. David Shearer our next packaged Zionist Prime Minister to replace John Key (zionist banker)who will not seek a 3rd term after selling off our assets to his Zionist mates. Shearer is Married to jewess Anushka Meyer , He was NZ man of the year as picked by the zionist rag NZ Herald 2 years ago. Part of the Iraqi invasion resulting in Nathaniel Rothschild controlling the Iraqi Oil fields (see Valleres Oil) to net him 4 billion per annum. Involved with the Zionist controlled United Nations. Our democracy has been usurped all main parties are Zionist controlled and the candidates are forced down our throats by the electoral committees of each party. Plus every country in the world is in debt to the Rothschilds. The big four Australian banks are all zionists and they control the 300 billion of debt created over our dwellings farms and businesses.The inner sanctums of management of the NZ Banking system are dominated by Zionist jews. How do we wake NZ upto these facts, The history of the Rothschilds states that they setup Reuters; and the privatisation process is to allow them to obtain ownership of of our utility companies, Heffernan runs contact energy and most of the directors are Australian jews.I have seen an estimate of $500 TRILLION US DOLLARS for the Rothschilds wealth. All our billionaires are Zionists and the Zionists own the 2 largest supermarket chains and the Westfield Shopping malls. Most of the people on the rich list are zionist jews. Graeme Hart is a Jew (profited from privatisation of Govt Printing Office).The Chandler Brothers are Jewish (check out their artist mother) and along with Jennings they profited by the privatisation process in Russia. The Friedlanders started buying a house a week in the depression and now own 2600 houses in Ponsonby.and most of the commercial real estate in Ponsonby road and Great North Road. There is a Friedlander lookalike in every community in New Zealand All this is of course statistically impossible. I believe Treasury and the Reserve bank are run by these people as are our trade commissions and delegates to the UN. Stiasney runs Genesis Energy. Lee Mathias has just been appointed in charge of a Government committee. Sean Elias is our Chief Justice. Paula Rebstock is now in charge of ACC Rebstock is married to Ulf Schoefisch a Jew, she also worked for Treasury. Obviously our selection process at the State Services commission is dominated by these people also. In the USA all the major sporting franchises are owned by Jews and Bernie Ecclestone controls formula 1. In NZ the 2 millionaire Zionist Jews own the Warriors. Give the people bread and circuses while you enslave them. The IRS in the USA was not formed until 1913 after the Rothschilds setup the US Federal Reserve this is also not a coincidence. The recent article in the Herald headed BIG BUCKS LURE TOP EXECS TO NZ Fails to note that 3 of the 4 appointees to top Public servants positions Grossman Makhlouf Longstone have Jewish surnames , as does the mentioned banking ombudsman Wakem...... God help NZ . http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10783494 The NZ Herald’s article about the cronyism of The Nats’ appointments to committees of partisan Nat members fails to mention the real problem is the huge number of Zionist Jews being appointed to positions of power in NZ. NZ Herald Article Housing boss ‘manhandled’ staff http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10800311 Ms Bach appointed independent lawyer Stephanie Dyhrberg to investigate the matter and the decision making was delegated to the former Secretary for Education Karen Sewell. Katrina Bach , Karen Sewell , Stephanie Dyhrberg – All Zionists THIS IS NOT COINCIDENCE. Also: •Lester Levy CEO Waitemata Health and Auckland transport • The new CEO of Air New Zealand Craig Norgate of Fonterra , the Fonterra shares are already being touted in the Israeli financial Press. The celebrity circus created by the media is dominated by Zionists as are the talking heads on television and the journalists who brainwash us including most of the press gallery at Parliament. Not to mention the Trades Council (supposedly there for working NZers) chief financial officer Bill Rosenberg. Hayley Westenra, and Anna Pacquin, Sam Neill. the Conchords etc etc etc. And recently South African jewish architects the HERBST won the NZ House of the year design.... YEAH RIGHT The masterchef finalist was a Schwartz and the guest judge was Rick Stein , have you noticed they never cook pork. And of course the previous winner of Masterchef Australia was jewish. and the Bohm girl who is Miss NZ is a South African Jew. Henry Makow ( Jews against Zionism) states....We have a faux society. The central bankers (Rockefellers, Rothschilds, Warburgs and the rich) control the media, politicians, professors, journalists. Those who deviate from the script are quickly marginalized. Most people who are successful (in the public realm) are witting or unwitting collaborators. Evil (or stupid) rises to the top. This has ceased to be strictly a "Jewish conspiracy." But like everyone else, Jews need to know about it, or be manipulated and used forever. They need to know that anti-Semitism is caused by the out-sized role other Jews, half-Jews and crypto Jews have played. Zionism is an instrument of banker world government. It is bloody frightening. Regards Don Further *Zionist Jew placed in charge of Christchurch rebuild* Warwick Isaacs has been placed in charge of the 30 Billion dollar Christchurch rebuild. He will of course surround himself with staff of overpaid jewish people and make sure the most profitable plums of the rebuild contracts also go to Jewish business's |
| Subject: Prosperity for all New Zealanders | |
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Author: cricketer [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 12:24:36 09/01/12 Sat New Zealand is a small country and as such it is slightly easier to see a whole picture of the deciet at levels of our Society. A great philosopher once said ...the terrible thing about the search for the truth is that you find it. A responsible government creating its own money supply upto the levels it would otherwise have borrowed is not inflationary it is actually massively deflationary in that firstly there is no need to pay interest theron and even more importantly their is no need to repay the capital. New Zealand is a great little Trading Nation. Our terms of trade are in balance, our exports offset our imports. The problem with our economy is debt and the interest thereon. We owe in excess of 30 billion in government debt and 300 billion in private debt ( mainly mortgages on out house and farms). Here is a link to the interactive world debt map as you can see every Country in the world is massively in debt. http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock Ask your self who could possibly own all this debt, The answer is of course the Zionist Rothscjhild money creation central bank network who have enslaved mankind with debt and taxation. These parasites are bleeding humanity dry. If you got to this link you will find a lot of information on the Rothschilds and the money creation scam. http://digitalwarfare.co.nz/ You will also find information on how the 1930s NZ Labour Government ended the depression by creating their own debt free money and built 33766 State House and also created numerous main roads etc. Of course the Rothschilds controlled Bank of England threatened the then government of the day with trade sanctions if they did not cease this practice. The New Zealand banking system ( which has been the biggest beneficiarary of the governments working for families tax credits and the resulting housing boom creating 250 billion extra debt on our housing stocks) is controlled by the Rothschild subsidiary J P Morgan. Which has been confirmed by 2 separate recent studies below.If the government gets the massive Banking profits they obviously need less taxation from their citizens. Georgina Murrays study on cross directorships of NZ and Australian public companies and Battiston and Glattfelder study of the secret ownership of Companies that form the Backbone of economies in countries throughout the world. J P Morgan is the largest shareowner of these companies in New Zealand albeit they purport to be public Companies. Her is Abraham Lincolns famous quote on governments creating their own money supply. Of course this is what got him assassinated. In fact all 4 USA Presidents who have been assassinated have been killed on order of the Rothschilds because they wanted to take wasy the Rothschilds control of money creation.( there are some suggested searches on this below). "The government should create, issue, and circulate all the currency and credit needed to satisfy the spending power of the government and the buying power of consumers. The privilege of creating and issuing money is not only the supreme prerogative of government, but it is the government's greatest creative opportunity. The financing of all public enterprise, and the conduct of the treasury will become matters of practical administration. Money will cease to be master and will then become servant of humanity." Please note well A responsible government creating its own money supply upto the levels it would otherwise have borrowed is not inflationary it is actually massively deflationary in that firstly there is no need to pay interest theron and even more importantly their is no need to repay the capital. WE CAN HAVE PROSPERITY FOR ALL NEW ZEALANDERS IF WE REPUDIATE THE NATIONAL DEBT AND THE GOVERNMENT NATIONALISES THE BANKING SECTOR> here are some suggested searches on US presidents Andrew Jackson I killed the Bank J F Kennedy executive order 11110 Jacob Rubenstien the Rothschild assassin Jack Ruby who silenced the patsy Lee Harvey Oswald |
| Subject: The whirld, perfect storms and other dizzy ramblings. | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 16:24:45 08/31/12 Fri The whirld, perfect storms and other dizzy ramblings akin to the Greek textbook “English as she is spoke.” Or “The case of the midwife toad”. Well, the first unofficial official signpost that the financial end is nigh has come and gone. Some lord high mucky muck, probably the president of the ECM or its central bank, along with a German spokesperson much nearer to divinity than I am, have stood firm and brave, and King Kanut like have ordered the tide not to come in. “We will not allow the ECM to be broken up.” Like all good bureaucrats they are doing exactly the right thing (for some circumstances) at absolutely the worst possible time. Despite the attempt to rally support and funds from the rest of the world, Germanies best probable option at the moment would be to withdraw from the ECM, forcing everyone to take their medicine. But politics is about power and the certainty of those in power that they have not only the best, but had the only viable solution for any of humanities problems right down to the heartbreak of psoriasis. I may have said this before here, but the world financial system reminds me of the heavy smoker of 40 or more years begins to cough blood. (Our leaders, AND WE have been irresponsibly spending tomorrows earnings today for even longer than 40 years, in fact since the start of WWII. Doctor B knows, or maybe he doesn’t, that it is terminal cancer but decides that the patient is better off not knowing and better living in a fairy land, so he finds a soothing name for what he is about to do, (Q.E.) and prescribes double the dose of tobacco smoke, saying it will calm the patients nerves, and secretly hoping the tar will cover the cancer cells, thus killing them. (Print and or otherwise borrow even more money.) Pain killers cure symptoms, not diseases. As much as he wants to believe, the patient is coughing more and more blood and he has this niggling doubt that something serious is wrong. He needs ever more medicine to calm his nerves. Another factor, even less recognised by humanity is world overpopulation. Way back in the ‘50’s some scientists got curious about the causes of many animal species population rise and fall as it did. Being a farm boy in the foothills of the Rockies I was familiar with the phenomena. The wild rabbit population would grow and grow and about every seven years there came a mysterious die off. That year you had to watch your farm animals very carefully because the now starving predators, the wolves, lynx, cougars, etc. were coming down from the mountains in search of food. The scientists began by studying the rise and fall of the population of wolves and then deer on an island, thinking that since they were on an island there could be less outside influence. They watched closely and even did autopsies on all the dying animals from whatever cause. True enough they did not have the medical tools we have today, but this was the most recent study I know of. The only thing they could find was that in the lead up to the population peak and subsequent mysterious die off, was enlarged adrenal glands, suggesting the animals were under some kind of stress. They moved the experiments inside using rats as subject animals. They provided a large room, all the food, water and bedding that the rats wanted. Rats have a very rigid social structure. They almost never fight among themselves. The family unit is quite sacrosanct, with both sexes being very monogamous and faithful. Mothers are especially caring and always make good nests. As the population grew the social structure began to break down. Autopsies began to show enlarged adrenal glands. Males began to mount males. Adolescent rats began to form gangs which terrorized the population. Females did not make good nests, just scattering a few straws around. They would pick up a kit, obviously planning to move nest, get distracted, drop the kit and wander off. Infanticide and cannibalism became rampant. Formerly courtship rituals involved the male chasing the female around, nipping at her tail. Eventually she would dive into her burrow and the male would stand in front of the burrow, hopping from foot to foot. If she poked her nose out and sniffed, he would follow her into the burrow and mate. If not, eventually he would wander off. As the population grew, attractive to rats, female rat tails were bitten until bone showed. The male no longer waited outside the burrow, but entered and mated. Then came the mysterious die off. And the social structure returned to what it was. Think of it. If you are in a crowded elevator, you stand rigidly at attention saying with your body language “I am not touching you because I want to but because the situation forces it.” Anyone who has ever visited Japan knows how convoluted societies artificial politeness can get as 125 million citizens try to exist on a very narrow strip of coastline on a relatively small series of islands where it is so difficult to have a personal space. The scientists found that if they added ceramic roof tiles as sort of a high rise nesting space, they could raise the ultimate numbers of the population significantly before the mysterious die off happened, despite the much smaller personal space than the the rats needed normally. It seemed that the existence of walls was used to delineate acceptable personal space. I worried after AIDS first appeared that our great die off had come. The stats said that during the expected four year lifespan of an HIV infected person, it could be expected on average that they would infect two others per year, an exponential increase. The medical community did yeoman duty finding a way of controlling HIV, but HIV is still with us. Current estimates are that 25 million people currently alive with HIV infection. If something happens like financial collapse to make the drug industry go down, how long before AIDS resumes its exponential progress., Overpopulation also has a hand in many other of mankinds current woes. With the exception of a time when the black death swept the world (and that was a long time ago) mans population has never declined. Neither we nor our leaders have personally experienced a declining population. All our models, particularly the economic, stress population growth as a panacea. In fact, few people alive today have experienced even as mild a life reversal as the dirty thirties. Even with the tide raising all boats, our leaders have a very mediocre track record making economic decisions. The only reason there are not pitchforks in the streets is that the politicos are much better at spin than they are at economics. We are adding 300 million new mouths to feed each year. Needless to say, that means a lot of new land going under the plow. You can argue all you want about manmade global warming and CO2. The shrill instant experts on weather, whose education on the matter consists of about ten seconds of listening to another equally knowledgeable expert, seem at odds with the solar experts who have spent lifetimes studying the matter. Apparently both Mars and Venus have recently warmed by three degrees C, whereas earth has only warmed by two. As well, NASA has just announced that the UN weather model is faulty. Satellites show the world is radiating far more infrared heat than predicted by the model. As a glider pilot I know that forests are great collectors of heat. As far as I am concerned the two percent warming the solar experts attribute to CO2 is washed by the reduced heat storage of the forests being cut to provide food for 300 million new mouths. I do believe firmly that the change in albido of the earth produced when these nice green forests are cut down to be replaced by black earth, black industrial roofs, and blacktop highways is a major contributor to global warming. The solar experts are predicting global cooling. In total I am merely predicting changing global weather patterns. It is clear even only looking at the residue as glaciers recede that changing weather patterns have been the rule rather than the exception for most of the life of the planet. Looking at the records, our weather has been exceptionally benign over the last fifty years, and particularly during the thirty years to the mid ’20 zeros. It is certainly due to change. Undoubtedly mankind is an element in weather change, but to what extent, I as a mere human, cannot state. For instance, there is an ocean desert just to the west of Chile. Its edge just touches the western beaches of Chile. Ocean deserts are especially vicious. One weather station on that desert has NEVER reported precipitation in its over 100 year history. I saw a forecast saying that this desert would move east and expand through the western part of Brazil to the SW quarter of the US within a decade or two. The recent droughts in Texas et al would tend in my mind to confirm that forecast. Then too, the world overpopulation even affects our forecasts and predictive models. In living memory, or even written history, we have always faced growth. From scientific inventions to population growth, we have lived in a growth atmosphere. (excepting the dark ages which are well worth studying.) Not only do we use ever present growth as a cornerstone in all our predictive models, we neither know how to, nor even want to consider negative growth or even stability. We have no experience with, nor have we even given thought to negative conditions. It might be wise to give a passing nod to the risk profile that is developing for humanity. |
| Subject: The whirld going round | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 13:24:45 06/26/12 Tue Well, I come out of my cave and Spain is doing its thing, Cypress has its hand out, about 50 banks have been downgraded, the Mideast is on fire, moreso than usual, and assorted other things. Methinks it is a good time to be stocking up on food. Think feed and seed mills and bags or garbage cans on wheels. Pasta is a great way to store grains. 30 year shelf life. Just in time is gonna git ya. What do you wanna bet the Germany is back on the Deutschemark within two years? Allen Currie |
| Subject: Chris a PS | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 14:15:34 06/07/12 Thu Actually, I see I didn't answer your question. Sorry. How long to fix the systems? I don't think Europe has still three months to fix what ails them. I don't think it is fixable. Greedy stupid banks and governments have spent many many years ruining the system and I don't see a faster fix, if at all. How long does an ex smoker take to heal completely? How long does a simple few second decision to use a credit card take to pay off? There comes a point where the smoker is lying in the hospital saying Doc, ya gotta cure my advanced cancer. (It ain't curable, the time for action was a very long time ago.) Doc soft pedals his nearly sure response to you could live for 3 months or a year or even three. No one knows. The patient thinks three years, and the Doc thinks one month. Only the lord knows. Yes, a miracle could happen. The Euro and the world financial system could survive, but I doubt it. When? I don't know but the patient is in a very bad way. Then we come to "getting back to the good old days." (return to what we know as normal.) Unless we find some way of continuing to spend our future, which will lead to even greater imbalances, we can never get back to what we have/had today. What we have been living is NOT normal. We have been partying with todays' substance PLUS tomorrows substance. Now we have to deal with the hangover, and no party. We have so many hangovers, (extreme techno reliance, living in a hydrocarbon fuelled world which is now in decline, climate change, overpopulation, depletion of easily recoverable resources, etc. etc.) that large change is going to happen in the world. Maybe you will like the changes. Maybe you won't. But you will certainly have to adapt to change. Change is not the good ol' days. Allen |
| Subject: Chris re Euro | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 10:47:07 06/07/12 Thu You might look below where I posted to Tony re the situation currently on May 18. Essentially we have a bank run, or more accurately a currency run in progress. Bank runs are hell on wheels to stop. Essentially they fly in cash money till people shrug and say to themselves, I guess I was wrong about how shaky that bank was, and they put their money back in the bank. This one is different. First, it started when Greeks feared that Greece would leave the ECM and return to the Drachma. They rushed to get their assets out of what surely would be a losing position in the Drachma, and turned their bank deposits, etc. into something they felt was safer. The Euro and the dollar. On that Monday alone a couple of weeks ago they pulled 700 million Euros out of the banking system. Think how many E20 bills that would come to, and it left the banking system completely to the under the mattress bank. Unfortunately flooding the market with cash does not remove the primary reason the run started, the political system. The election results added immensely to failing confidence. Moreover it doesn't really look as if new elections will solve the problem. The fear was intensified. Fear is like a wildfire fanned by a high wind. It just grows and grows, often for no discernable reason. Spain is woefully weak, as are its banks. Any idiot, including the pundits could see that. And the pundits were loud in their comments to that effect. Every non knowledgeable Spaniard began to think about the possabilities. The run spread. Now even the powerhouse German banks, in truth also bankrupt, are under suspicion. The run will spread. Even Greece has much further to fall as this economic whirlwind goes round and round. Don't think the US, or Canada, is immune. Despite the fact that the US total spending under Obama has grown at smaller percentage rates than under any president since Regan, the perception is that he has spent more than any other president by far. In actual numbers this is true, but not in percentages. Add the results of a recent poll which said that very slightly over 50% of US citizens believe the US is NOW bankrupt, the weakness of American banks, the out of control spending and debt, and the elements for easy spread of the fear to jump the Atlantic are all in place. Even China is lowering its interest rates to stimulate its economy. May God bless us all, each and every one. We're gonna need divine intervention. Allen |
| Subject: The EURO weakens | |
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Author: Chris [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 11:43:46 06/04/12 Mon Hey Allen, I was watching the news the end of last week. The Euro is becoming more unstable. They are beginning to say it may be unsustainable. If it did indeed fall, I wonder how long it would take to reshuffle Europe's monetary system? If America's system fails how long would it take for it to be revived in some form. Biblically a one world order and one world monetary system are foretold. I do not know if this is the time written of but I do know the world is fast becoming a very unstable place to hang ones hat. The word is there are still three months to fix the Euro's woes. The Gov's are using the wrong cure and that without investment to create future growth the fall is assured. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18320881) |
| Subject: Tex | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 19:09:33 06/01/12 Fri Didn't know if you had this link and thought a couple of posts might be of interest. Yes I seldom get to civilization, but when I do I post here first. Gotta look after my audience. Grin The economic situation is looking more like your primaries.Damned if you do, Damned if you don't. Think Obama will fail if only because of economic reasons. God bless us all, each and every one. We're gonna need divine intervention Best Allen |
| Subject: Texas Primary | |
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Author: Tex Norton [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 22:36:22 05/30/12 Wed Howdy Allen: Got your private email earlier. I haven't been ignoring you - I just knew you were out-and-about and thought I understood you had rare access to the Net. Tuesday was Primary day here in TX. I haven't had a chance to really assess the damage. Looks, however, as though we're in for the false alternative: Would you like a broken arm or would you prefer a broken leg? "Neither" is not an acceptable option. Cheers |
| Subject: Cruising I find Der Spiegel agrees | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 16:20:35 05/24/12 Thu Bank Run fears http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/fears-of-bank-runs-increase-in-europe-a-833879.html |
| Subject: Another thing I forgot that is significant | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 15:03:32 05/24/12 Thu I heard the tail end of a news cast which said I think it was the IMF had warned the US get its fiscal house in order THIS YEAR or face the very real possability of a deep recession next year. The world is not unaware of the US financial system weaknesses. I don't think the US CAN get its financial house in order. The "raising the debt ceiling" hoo haw of last July proved that conclusively. If they don't get ever more Ponzi money, they will default. Allen |
| Subject: Cricketer Ooops | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 09:57:46 05/24/12 Thu Sorry, I forgot my "disappeared" message apallogized for placing you in OZ and not NZ. All you guys look alike. Grin |
| Subject: Cricketer Europe | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 09:46:52 05/24/12 Thu Damn. two hours of brilliance just lost and now I can't even remember what I said. Grin Thank you, and thank you for lurking. As I have said below, Governments and other Authorities seem to have the habit of doing exactly the right thing to fix exactly some other problem at precisely the worst possible time. Again as I said below, Iceland seems to have stumbled to the right conclusion. Let the privately owned (bank) corporations fail as any other privately owned corp, and government must step down and keep their fiddle faddeling fingers out. They have already proven they cannot manage, and more mismanagement isn't going to help. Of course the standard reaction is; if this cockamamie solution doesn't work, the problem is that the rules are not draconian enough. Reinforce the rules. King Kanut CAN turn back the tide. I have been studying the depression of 1920/21. That was the last depression that the Fed didn't "fix" things. (Sorry, they were so young and new. The Fed only came into being a very few years previously) Like Icelands fall, that depression was VERY vicious but short lived. Iceland today is not the land of milk and honey, but it is surviveable. They purged their systemic problems and are unlikely to suffer that much as the rest of the world who are trying to turn back the clock and "fix" things. Your banks have a two fold problem. With depositors liable to being hung out to dry, they are more prone to depositors acting more quickly than N.American depositors who have all sorts of "guarentees" that they will not lose money. (Guarentees are only as good as the guarentor) On the Other hand, they will likely be quicker to swallow some very bitter medicine. (Providing Government doesn't decide to "fix" things.) Allen |
| Subject: aussie banks | |
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Author: cricketer [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 14:17:56 05/20/12 Sun Alan nice well thought out reply. Australias exports are much higher than 10% of GDP. Lots of Iron ore exported to China and japan. The big four banks in NZ are Australian based and we are also large exporters. Mainly dairy meat fruit timber fish etc. Our banks are Rothschilds controlled through J P Morgan and various nominees although appearing to be Public companies they are dominated by the major shareholdings. I have seen a document whereby our Reserve Bank proposes a one day banking holiday in event of a bank failure. A new bank would open two days later with all depositors being unsecured creditors of the previous bank and deposits taking a Haircut. |
| Subject: Tony D | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 13:07:00 05/18/12 Fri Tony Sorry I have been so long in responding but I am now way back in the bush in isolation with no phone, electricity, internet, TV, etc. (I still get radio, when I have time to listen.) I get out about once a week (more or less)I don't want to be any where near the fan. Grin I have never been to Oz, and there are two things I think will effect the speed of the contigation as it hits. There is no doubt in my mind that it will hit. The first is the attitude of the people. The banking system survives at any time, but especially now with all the world financial system bankrupt since Aug 17, 2008, on the confidence of customers. (that they will get their money back) That confidence is a pretty fickle thing at best, but some societies are more excitable than others. On the other hand every society tends to get upset when you take away all their money and/or benefits they feel entitled to. Look at Greece. The population is bound and determined they won't accept "austerity" There is NO comprehension or thought that things could (and would) be much worse under bankruptcy. Greece has much further to fall. (that does not consider whether the current solutions are the correct medicine for the problem. The time for austerity and government interference was in the years leading up to now. ) The second thing to really effect how fast your banking system collapses is the systemic risk within your banks themselves. I am not really familiar with the details on Aussie banks, but the world banking system has a huge systemic risk. Derivatives alone (which are actually loans in disguise in that they are obligations to pay) apparently run over a quadrillion dollars (maybe 1&1/2) in value. With the world GDP running at maybe 2% of that, can the banks pay? Especially in their current VERY weak or bankrupt state. Ignoring the derivatives for a moment, think about daily cash flows between banks, just for clearing daily issued checks. If bank A fails to pay for the checks written by their customers, will bank B be able to survive that hit? If neither Bank A & B pay what they collectively owe Bank C, what are its chances of C's survival? It becomes a row of dominoes. Are Aussie banks isolated? No. What percentage of your GDP is exported? I would guess +/- 10%. They are relying on foreign banks to pay, never mind businesses that are writing checques daily. Add all these factors together, especially the confidence factor, and Oz cannot stand alone. Last Monday alone I understand that at least 700 million Euros or about 1 billion dollars moved out of Greek banks through withdrawl of deposits. Banks don't keep that sort of cash on hand. They keep about 4% of their deposits in obligations by other banks to be repaid tomorrow. The actual cash on hand is miniscule. They have to be flying planeloads of cash in hourly. And a lot of that cash is not going back to some other bank so that the countries banking system balances out. (Bank A's cash moves to B and B's cash moves to A) Most of it is winding up under peoples mattresses because they fear that Greece will go back to a very worthless Drachma. To any thinking Greek it is better to be safe than sorry and they have more confidence in the Euro than a possible Drachma. With all their money loaned out in 30 year mortgages or something, the banks cannot pay immediately whether they are solvent or not. With confidence in banks and governments failing around the world, and especially the news that has been floating around recently about Spain, even those who do not understand things financial found it was easy to guess that Spain was next, and that one is also underway by now (Friday). Next is probably Portugal and one of the ex USSR countries, Romania or Hungary or something. Neither France, Italy, nor England are immune to a bad balance sheet, so a lack of confidence is highly likely to spread. Eventually they will take down the best financed country, even Germany. (And Germany has been weakened by taking over East Germany plus all the money it has been throwing at Greece, et al.) Unless they get this lack of confidence in the banking system stopped, soon it will jump the Atlantic. (No matter how many Euros are currently fleeing to the "safety" of the US dollar.) How this will come to Oz is not at all clear to me. Probably through the financial routes associated with hydrocarbons. What boggles my mind is how little attention is paid to the bank run by our local media and how little importance is attributed to it. They are all European problems but with no expected result here in North America. I occasionally get an hour or so of Aussie rebroadcast and it seems the same there. The "experts" are as obtuse financially as Joe Sixpack. A bank run is hell on wheels to stop, and it accellerates exponentially. On the other hand, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Never-the-less, I have dropped promoting novel in favor of finalizing my own preparations. Allen |
| Subject: Europe | |
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Author: Tony D [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 03:13:12 05/08/12 Tue Hi Allen, Having read your book and watching events unfold in Europe makes me think that there will be warning signs from Europe about problems in the USA. The issue will be that most Americans may not realise the gravity of the situation caused for them by Europe until the shelves are empty(which will happen in hours when panic breaks out). So social fabric will break down at an amazing speed as people do "what it takes" to survive. Living in Australia I'm not sure how quickly the contagion will reach here but I'm not hoping for the best. In our time zone, I'm expecting to wake up one morning to a very different set of circumstances. Where do you think things are up to at the moment ? |
| Subject: PeterA Good to see you lurking | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 18:26:46 04/29/12 Sun It is interesting that the next day after I speculated in the post that the first rule of holes was to stop digging, I read John Mauldin in last weeks column which included a speech by Jim Grant to the fed. In the excerpt below he is speaking about Willis who wrote in the early thirties. "In 1917, after the United States entered the Great War, the Fed set about monetizing the Treasury's debt and suppressing the Treasury's borrowing costs. In the 1920s, after the recovery from the short but ugly depression of 1920-21, the Fed started to implement open-market operations to sterilize gold flows and steer a desired macroeconomic course. "Central banks," wrote Willis, glaring at the innovators, "...will do wisely to lay aside their inexpert ventures in half-baked monetary theory, meretricious statistical measures of trade, and hasty grinding of the axes of speculative interests with their suggestion that by doing so they are achieving some sort of vague 'stabilization' that will, in the long run, be for the greater good." As I read the history of the “short but ugly depression of 1920-21” there was little or no government interference in that depression so it was short, but history also says that government interference was far greater in the ‘30s and almost certainly extended the pain greatly. It just goes to prove something I have believed for a long time – Government will do the absolutely right thing to solve some other problem at absolutely the worst possible time. Now that government has achieved much more adsvanced tools I expect much more pain. That speach was a classic in dry humor and perfect swordsmanship worked on the vests of the Fed. |
| Subject: Great Phrase! | |
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Author: PeterA [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 11:04:55 04/29/12 Sun "The first rule of holes is to stop digging." |
| Subject: Dawn | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 21:14:13 04/27/12 Fri Dawn Yes Spain is definitely in trouble and unfortunately it is probably among the "to big to fail." Greece, (definitely with further to fall regardless of how grim it already is) has already bled the parts of Europe able to respond, pretty dry. It might be arguable that if Spain were the first in this row of dominoes that it might not be "to big to fail" (I don't agree) and if countries like Germany had not rescued East Germany and Greece they MIGHT have the capacity to somewhat do a Greek type rescue of Spain. Despite all the propaganda, France, England, and almost all the newer members of the ECM are not in any shape to do any rescuing of anyone including themselves. It is interesting to study Iceland who somewhat quietly went under. In my mind three very interesting factors have enabled Iceland to recover from deathly grim results to survivable living quite quickly. (Definitely NOT the land of milk and honey but survivable.) First, Icelands primary developed natural resource, thermally generated electricity, didn't suddenly come to a stop as many of the high tech oil extraction facilities will in a collapse. Firms like the high energy component aluminum companies still had world demand for their product and their production barely hiccuped. Secondly apparently, somehow, a fairly significant percentage of the population was in a position to emmigrate and did so. While the economic pie was indeed much smaller, there were less slices required to feed the remaining populace. Thirdly, and most importantly in my mind, Iceland took its medicine immediately rather than kicking the can down the road like the rest of the world seems intent on doing. They let the privately owned banks go under. The rest of the political world was horrified. Governments immediately think of their own treasuries as necessaty to maintaining their power. Their banking sytems control all their money and therefore their treasuries. The Icelandic government did what it had to and stepped down. They should be given the highest honors mankind is capable of bestowing on them. The first rule of holes is to stop digging. Allen |
| Subject: Rose | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 18:17:18 04/23/12 Mon Thank you so much for posting. This is the reason I wrote the novel, so others might understand the possible culmination of reactions that are the result of the various unthinking actions that we, as represented by our governments and our mass thinkings, might be. I have often thought that if it alerted even one person, the nearly 20 years I spent learning to write would be worthwhile. May god bless and good luck Allen |
| Subject: Searching | |
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Author: Rose [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 19:19:57 04/22/12 Sun I have been searching information by visiting several blogs and articles online. But this page has turned out to be the ultimate destination of my desired knowledge. This has no doubt really fulfilled my contention and for that I am thankful to the blogs owner! Regards |
| Subject: Thanks Chris Kennedy | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 19:36:20 04/21/12 Sat Thanks. I`m wiggling all over Grin. Spread the word Allen |
| Subject: Read it | |
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Author: Chris Kennedy [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 19:30:50 04/21/12 Sat I recieved a copy of Operation Pheonix from a good friend. I thought no way am I going take the time to read that much! But within a few short pages I was hooked and by the end I was left wanting more! If you start this one you'll know what I mean. |
| Subject: Babullingon | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 06:58:16 04/19/12 Thu I`m not sure what you are getting at. I suppose everyone has the option of going bankrupt including the USA. In fact Greece is doing that right now and Spain is dipping its toe into that water. As a matter of fact, So is the USA. I never ran across that statistic that the average millionaire goes bankrupt four times. Where did you get it. You say `we are at 61 percent foreclosure at 65 percent` I am afraid I dont understand what you are driving at.Dumb of me I guess Allen Currie |
| [> Subject: Re: Babullingon ..Spain, gosh | |
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Author: Dawn [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 05:13:57 04/27/12 Fri Your comments about Spain were and are still correct. Gotta feel for the people there and the work ahead to try and make it better. "Spain is in a crisis of enormous magnitude." http://ca.news.yahoo.com/spain-downgrade-reinforces-debt-crisis-fears-european-markets-072300175--finance.html |
| Subject: where are the captilists | |
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Author: babullingon (enjoying ignorance) [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 00:14:22 04/19/12 Thu average millonare goes bankrupt 4 times option avalibile to everone including usa dah |
| [> Subject: Re: where are the captilists | |
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Author: Babullingon (enjoying ignorance) [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 00:22:04 04/19/12 Thu >average millonare goes bankrupt 4 times option >avalibile to everone including usa dah we are at 61 percent foreclosure at 65 percent where did you all go to school |
| Subject: Ooops The US dollar has just insured it is no longer the world reserve currency | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 21:39:59 04/14/12 Sat Every organization/country who ever developed a new weapon tried mightily to maintain sole possession of that weapon, or at least stop its proliferation. It worked that way with the crossbow, and gunpowder and on and on. People who lust after power like to maintain their advantage. It never works. The first time whatever the new weapon is used, the secret is out. Sooner or later someone is going to figure it out, and then someone else. They can’t afford not to. I am certainly not happy that the atomic bomb is proliferating, but that is inevitable. It is also probable that some psychopath will get his hands on the technology and mankind and the earth will suffer or die. Kicking the can down the road is an honourable endeavour, but it does have its costs. Sometimes kicking the can down the road can be done in other ways. Sometimes some of these other ways can even be more effective. The US is being very vigilant in trying to stop proliferation, although I don’t know how effectively if a poor country like N. Korea can develop the technology. Most, if not all the world agrees with that goal. Iran must be feeling very insecure right now. They have a very valuable asset that major powers seem to have no hesitation in invading in order to control. The bogus reasons Iraq was invaded springs to mind. Iran would dearly love to level the playing field a bit. I think it is probable they are working towards bomb technology. The US has righteously taken the lead in punishing Iran for this transgression. They have caused to be installed an economic blockade. Like all governments everywhere, if at first your plans don’t work immediately, make the laws more draconian. And if that doesn’t work immediately, bend the laws. Guantanamo Bay, water boarding, and other crimes against humanity spring to mind. The SWIFT payment system was a perfect blunt object to insure that Iran suffered economically and badly. So they shut it down for Iran. Iran can no longer get payment for their assets, nor can they pay for whatever they need or want to import. Unfortunately I don’t think the engineers of this action considered the next dominoes in this row. Cut off my primary source of income and I am going to try to replace it somehow, rather than starve to death. Desperate actions are entirely predictable. Potential starvation tends to focus the mind wonderfully. Not only that, but the implied threat against every other country in the world was not missed by all those same countries. The BRIC countries in particular were already chaffing under the heavy handed imposition of economically skewed rules. China in particular had already begun weaning itself with separate agreements with various countries to trade in local currencies. They had the wherewithal to set up regional central banks and fund them. They “offered” (read pressured) to trade with their various trading partners in currencies other than USD. They have been buying assets like both copper and mines using US dollars in payment, frantically. Better to have ones store of value in commodities than an increasingly shaky dollar. I understand their store of US dollars has declined in value by half a trillion dollars in purchasing power. The percentage of US dollars in their reserves has declined from 65% to 54% in two years. That does not include the nearly $280 billion in annual US trade surpluses that they have managed to negate. They are serious about the US dollar and the Renmimbi/Yaun. Back to the Iranian row of dominoes. This embargo is not only against Iran. It does not effect the US overmuch. The US does not trade substantial amounts of its GDP with Iran. But local countries like Italy do. Italy gets just under 15% of its oil from Iran. In return it exports trucks and other goods so they have a more or less balanced trade account with Iran. Italy is already in deep do doo and losing this export market is real painful. Should they become the object of economic sanctions for failing to toe the line, it would be catastrophic. Italy is all too aware that a philosophic whim could bring punishment especially given the Iranian SWIFT action. Italys economy is already in decline for various reasons, including the above. Their attention is on saving their own butts. If they have to cooperate, it won’t be willingly. India has not waited. They also import significant amounts of Iranian oil. Already they have arranged to continue to continue to import oil with payments in Rupees, goods, and gold. How quickly the oil and other trade switched out of the worlds reserve currency. This trend can be expected to continue. As this trend continues there will be a flood of US petro and other dollars seeking to return home to the US. Printing more dollars will not cure this malady. Noting that the Fed is already buying 61% of the treasury auction, effectively the US can not borrow their way out of this situation, even if other countries wanted to lend. And indicators such as China show an increasing disinclination to do so. Perhaps that is why the US is passing increasingly draconian laws such as the military non Habeas Corpus detention of anyone or the March 16 (Friday EVENING) signing by Obama of the peacetime martial law edict. Allen Currie |
| Subject: A PS to Dave | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 20:26:57 04/11/12 Wed Quote "I presume outside of the hero's herculean effort to save something of modern civilization. The story is based around how you think a financial collapse might occur." I think my focus was more on the pattern that social disruption would contribute to the collapse, which I guess means how a financial collapse would occur. He also wanted to save knowledge because like in the years prior to the dark ages starting about 1000 AD, a great deal of knowledge which existed then had to be reinvented in the 1500's. We have much better ways of preserving knowledge now. (Not that I think anyone with digital information will save that knowledge for 500 years.) Allen |
| Subject: New microchip knows your location within centimeters | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 23:16:17 04/10/12 Tue Talk about the mark of the beast. The ultimate beast tracker http://www.infowars.com/new-microchip-knows-your-location-to-within-centimeters/ |
| Subject: Sierra Dave Thanks for commenting | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 22:37:34 04/10/12 Tue Dave Yes, in 1993 when I started writing this, or actually started learning to write because the basic story hasn’t really changed all that much, this seemed like a reasonable trigger event. I had no idea that particularly the European bankers could be so obtuse. Silly of me. Nor did I think the US could possibly get this creative in their accounting. In their own way Greenspan and Bernanke are geniuses. Anyway It is only a trigger mechanism in a fictional setting and faintly possible. As you say, “Once the money is gone”. Every dollar a borrower spends today is two or more that cannot be spent tomorrow. Right now governments have bellied up to the bar, playing chug-a-lug with a glass in each hand and soon comes the vomit. Exactly when may be in doubt, but soon. I pray they have cast iron stomachs because I’m not anxious to see my predictions come true As to holistic medicine I have a number of texts in my preps and my doctor is totally amazed at how well my diabetes is doing. I just quietly use a teaspoon of cinnamon daily, get lots of exercise, and have stopped using the pills, but that is not medically sound of course. Most of my preps involve buying me time (two+ years) so I don’t have to react in panic and make stupid mistakes. I will make enough without the panic. Grin. Besides, that is all that is likely to be available. As to a printing press, I am forecasting Billions (With a B) of deaths. (See below re water related deaths.) In the small 1-300 person community envisaged in the novel, word of mouth will do a lot of that work. I don’t think there will be masses of people to communicate with. I forecast the fall of the USSR and happened to be subscribing to two English language Russian newspapers when it actually did go down. I was able to follow that fall quite closely. Got my experience vicariously, rather like book knowledge, which stops the reader from making some mistakes but not others. Do feel free to spread the link around. My goal has been to give back to humanity for having lived in the best time and place mankind has ever known. If people have even thought of the possibility they won’t be so blindsided (the worst kind of blow) when events begin. I am really proud that the novel has prodded three people I know to begin some preps. That may or may not save them, but it increases the possibility they will survive exponentially. Any chatter you can generate on various forums, etc. will be greatly appreciated. Allen |
| Subject: Quite the barn burner! | |
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Author: Sierra Dave [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 18:44:30 04/10/12 Tue Thoroughly enjoyed reading it in one night. A very exciting and prophetic story. Not a financial expert, but understand that money is the lubricant that allows the trade of goods and services. And currently our fiat money (the whole world for the matter) is sick and getting sicker. There are quite a few ways that a financial collapse could go down. And once the money is gone. Modern society comes to a grinding halt. I presume outside of the hero's herculean effort to save something of modern civilization. The story is based around how you think a financial collapse might occur. Not that anyone will know for sure until it happens. But I've been saying for a few years. When there's a bank holiday. That will be it. ATM's will stop working. It will be cash and carry until the grocery stores are emptied. And they won't get refilled when most of the truckers are stranded all over the country with useless gas cards. Those still with fuel will head home. No manner of trying to prime the machine is going to get it going from a stop. What we have now has evolved and grown into the complex thing it is. I guess I'm saying there'd be a deeper collapse initially then followed by a continuous deterioration. But that might not allow time for the plot to happen. I was a little disappointed that our team didn't consider holistic types of medicines. Going only for Pharma, which has it's issues. And unless I missed it, there wasn't mention of a printing press. The ability to disseminate information to the masses after hitting bottom. Information on restarting a new society and maybe set the stage for a better type of government. Wish you the best. Keep Prepping, I am. David M |
| Subject: Tony D | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 08:36:13 04/10/12 Tue Tony. Thanks for visiting, reading and especially the comment. I need all the feedback I can get. I will take your points in order but I am tempted to jump to the last. There are several ways a bond auction could fail. I noticed a thing on MoneyNews.com that said that the Fed was now buying 61% of the treasury auction. Lets say that China, who has been dumping dollars as fast as possible, and in fact in the last two years has reduced its percentage reserve holdings of USD from 65% to 54% PLUS those two years of trade surplus which last year ran in the neighborhood of $280 Billion, decided that since the Fed was buying, that they would use this information to “stuff” a few of its own bonds back to the US. Now either through error or malice aforethought they over did it. (And they are definitely in the position that if they do so they will be hurt but less than pretty well anyone else. They can afford a few dollars casualty in this war) At the exact time of the auction they dump an equal amount on the market, suddenly the Fed would be faced with buying 161% of the auction. Now that is pretty fanciful and I can’t see it happening, but it does demonstrate the possibility and how vulnerable the US is. The Fed can’t continue this buying indefinitely. In the final analysis any country has to either come up with either the goods to balance the trade deficit, or the foreign exchange to balance the trade deficit, or suffer its currency to be wildly devalued. Just as I, if you want credit for something you are buying from me, can demand to be paid in Canadian dollars or I won’t sell to you, China can demand to be paid in goods or Yuan/Renmimbi. Yeah, I won’t make the sale, but I also understand that the bond holdings of China have deteriorated since they were purchased by half a TRILLION dollars in purchasing power. Which loss do I want to take? “you laced the book with sign of the gradual degradation” Actually if you look at the time frame of the book, only 30 days pass in its entirety. Moreover I only put in one type of degradation per illustration. I left out a few, notably roving bands of bandits and how heavily armed US citizens are. Once started, each type will continue on along side every new type. I expect MUCH more violence. (and corruption) Glad you liked the presidents speech. I was proud of that. Thank you for the critique on the last part. I will have to think on that very carefully. I am sort of stuck because it is now published, but it is an easy thing to do when you are so close to something. As to the movie, I am struggling with that now. There is too much going on. Still you can show a dead body lying there in the background with everyone ignoring it as normal and that will say a lot about the deterioration. Restoring order and return to “normalcy”. I think the government will turn out to be unbelievably heavy handed. They haven’t passed these laws into being without the intention of using them. These laws are so draconian that Hitler would have had wet dreams. “Normalcy”. Worldwide I expect billions (Yes with a B) of deaths. Lets take a small thing, not mentioned in the novel. Take any largish city, say New York. Aside from the violence and starvation our Just In Time world will produce, you will have 10 million people trying to get out into a fairly crowded countryside whose people are also being forced to get out. What water will they drink? The polluted Hudson River? Will disease, typhoid, etc spread? They need water more than food. Secondly, I was telling someone recently that I was accumulating nails and other fastening devices. “Why?” Think about a steel mill. It is always large and needs a certain large volume to break even. In these conditions how many people will be buying nails? That mill is going to shut down. Lets say that demand comes back in 2 years. (I doubt it because of population decline, but lets say.) The operators/owners of the mill come back with the view to reopening. The vandalism will be massive. Okay lets assume no vandalism. Do they have the infrastructure to get iron or scrap metal to melt? Is the power operating, or like in many parts of the world, have thieves shorted out the lines so they can steal the copper? And is the firebrick manufacturer up and running so they can get their furnaces going because two years of sitting and those bricks will be toast. Then how about the nickel mines or whatever so they can get the additives they need for the steel. If we don’t have steel, we don’t have a whole lot of other downstream things like cars and razor blades. The whole society is built like that. One small malfunction and the whole plant waits, and produces nothing, until it is fixed. Meanwhile their customers wait as well. And THEIR customers. Then there is the fact that we have shipped most of our manufacturing equipment to low cost countries. We don't HAVE the equipment to be self sufficient even if we wanted to. Be well and good luck Allen |
| Subject: Thanks !! | |
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Author: Tony D (Thoughtful) [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 04:53:12 04/10/12 Tue Hi Alan, Thanks for making your book available online, I found it through Justamerebear's recommendation on Dollarcollapse.com. In read the book in 2 days, which is very quick for me. Just some respectful observations: - This is definitely a scenario that faces the states in some form in the future. However, how can a bond auction fail when they are backstopped by the Fed ? Hyperinflation or a deflationary collapse is definitely on the cards but I can't see a bond auction failure occurring before a inflationary/hyperinflationary scenario. - I thoroughly enjoyed how you laced the book with sign of the gradual degradation of the US financial and social systems. - The highlight of the book for me was the President's speech on TV. Brilliant !! Exactly what they will do and say when the time comes. - I found myself starting to skim the preparations aspect of the story towards the end as it was so exhaustive for a mainstream reader like myself. When looking at possibly making a film that will have mass appeal I think the intricate detail of preps can be glossed over unless they present some sort of point to the story. In saying this I think you should keep the breadth of the preps in for sure, just not go into so much detail about each one. Just my single, humble opinion as feedback. The other aspect of the book that has got me thinking is how permanent the "changes" that will occur as a result of a collapse will be. I have the (unsupported) view that there will be a severe dislocation as described in the book but that gradually normalcy will be restored, albeit at a much lower standard of living. The other risk is that "order" will be restored, but at the cost of personal freedom and privacy through enforcement of laws like the "Patriot Act". |
| [> Subject: Re: Thanks !! | |
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Author: Gene [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 05:11:05 07/04/13 Thu Dear Tony D, Gotta say that I enjoyed your eloquent comments. especially the "laced your book" bits! Gene >Hi Alan, > >Thanks for making your book available online, I found >it through Justamerebear's recommendation on >Dollarcollapse.com. > >In read the book in 2 days, which is very quick for >me. Just some respectful observations: >- This is definitely a scenario that faces the states >in some form in the future. However, how can a bond >auction fail when they are backstopped by the Fed ? >Hyperinflation or a deflationary collapse is >definitely on the cards but I can't see a bond auction >failure occurring before a >inflationary/hyperinflationary scenario. >- I thoroughly enjoyed how you laced the book with >sign of the gradual degradation of the US financial >and social systems. >- The highlight of the book for me was the President's >speech on TV. Brilliant !! Exactly what they will do >and say when the time comes. >- I found myself starting to skim the preparations >aspect of the story towards the end as it was so >exhaustive for a mainstream reader like myself. When >looking at possibly making a film that will have mass >appeal I think the intricate detail of preps can be >glossed over unless they present some sort of point to >the story. In saying this I think you should keep the >breadth of the preps in for sure, just not go into so >much detail about each one. Just my single, humble >opinion as feedback. > >The other aspect of the book that has got me thinking >is how permanent the "changes" that will occur as a >result of a collapse will be. I have the (unsupported) >view that there will be a severe dislocation as >described in the book but that gradually normalcy will >be restored, albeit at a much lower standard of >living. The other risk is that "order" will be >restored, but at the cost of personal freedom and >privacy through enforcement of laws like the "Patriot >Act". |
| Subject: Tim | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 07:19:35 04/09/12 Mon It cannot be worse than what I currently envisage. ORRR you wanna make my already grey hair white if it is? Thanks for visiting and look forward to your heads up Allen |
| Subject: End Of The Road | |
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Author: Tim Sparke [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 02:13:50 04/09/12 Mon Alan You will want to see the film 'End Of The Road' a documentary about the debt crisis. When it comes out on VOD I will let you know. |
| Subject: Out of control | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 00:56:12 04/09/12 Mon Providing interest rates don’t increase this chart shows that in 2019 interest on the federal debt will equal and exceed the defense budget. Can you say multi trillion dollar deficits forever. http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obamas-budget-interest-payments-will-exceed-defense-budget-2019_635445.html Allen |
| Subject: A better look at TEOTWAWKI | |
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Author: JustamereBear [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 21:06:45 04/08/12 Sun This article does not really discuss specific measures such as guns or gold (although it does touch on many things tangentially) but it does cover more ground than almost any advice I have seen. http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/25-must-know-skills-for-surviving-the-coming- nightmare_04032012#comment-509620 25 Must Know Skills For Surviving The Coming Nightmare. Skills that will be essential for surviving any number of catastrophes that may befall us. |
| Subject: We are further along than I feared | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 18:04:40 04/05/12 Thu First the below re Athens suicide. In and of itself internationally, this is not significant. More it is like the canary in a mine. So many don't understand the magnitude of the suffering Greeks are going through, nor what a financial failure will mean to themselves perrsonally. Then we come to something that maskes my hair stand on end with its magnitude. The US treasury auctions are failing massively and consistantly The Federal Reserve is propping up the entire U.S. economy by buying 61 percent of the government debt issued by the Treasury Department, a trend that cannot last, Lawrence Goodman, a former Treasury official and current president of the Center for Financial Stability, writes in a Wall Street Journal opinion article published Wednesday http://www.moneynews.com/Headline/fe...mo_code=E92C-1 |
| Subject: Unfortunately a harbringer of things to come | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 21:00:59 04/04/12 Wed The greek officially recognized debt per capita is/was $38,937 The US officially recognized debt per capita is, well the figures have grown, but $44,215. However the government auditors are refusing to sign the books because they are totally misleading. Nuff said. I see this as a harbringer of things to come Elderly Greek Kills Himself in Main Athens Square ________________________________________ A Greek retiree shot himself dead in the busiest public square in Athens during morning rush hour Wednesday, leaving a note police said linked his suicide with the country's acute financial woes. http://www.cnbc.com/id/46955745 Daily Proto Thema exclusively published the shattering hand-note of D. Ch.: “The occupation government of Tsolakoglou* literally annihilated any possibility for my survival that was depended on a decent pension which only I personally paid for 35 years (without any state support). Because my age does not give me the possibility for a dynamic reaction (without meaning that if a Greek would grab the kalashnikov, I wouldn’t be the second one [to grab one], I see no other solution than the decent end before I start searching in the garbage for food. I believe that one day the youth without future will take the arms and hang upside down at Syntagma Square the national traitors as the Italians did with Mussolini in 1945 Piazza Poreto in Milan)” |
| Subject: Dawn | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 07:14:18 04/02/12 Mon Well, right now I am busy getting the word out about this one. You could help by posting the link at any site you regularly visit. There are two possible sequels, but prior to that I am struggling with the movie script. The early logic is done. The problem is that I have to condense Operation Phoenix. It is far too long for a movie. Welcome and thanks for visiting. I hope you will continue to discuss by posting here. We need to help each other. Allen |
| Subject: Wild Ponzi | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 06:54:26 04/02/12 Mon Twitter (name Allen Currie Auth) Facebook and Linkedin (name Allen Currie Author) are all in progress. We just have to modify this site and the icons will be added on the next go around of changes in this site by my long suffering guru Chris. Thanks for the the pointer and welcome Allen |
| Subject: Seems Soon | |
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Author: Wild Ponzi [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 06:54:56 03/31/12 Sat Interesting read, love the ponzi approach, end of financial structure as we know it..seems true soon I enjoy twitter, facebook etc. Do you have them? Let us know. |
| Subject: Love it | |
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Author: Dawn [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 18:45:53 03/30/12 Fri Hey, Loved your book. Sooo when's the next one coming out? Keep up the interesting writing, we need more! |
| Subject: hdtwncam | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 18:30:19 03/28/12 Wed Yeah, these young whippersnappers keep discovering vit C, Asprin, sex, and all kinds of things we took for granted in our youth. Amazing bunch Welcome Allen |
| Subject: "Damn, I don't have time to die yet." | |
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Author: hdtwncam [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 09:34:16 03/28/12 Wed pretty amazing stuff... http://vitamincfoundation.org/stone/ |
| Subject: Peter Long time no see! | |
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Author: Allen Currie J'Bear [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 05:15:14 03/27/12 Tue Happy belated birthday. Yeah, it's strange, I still have a skinny 19 year old hiding under here somewhere. Doesn't it make you feel good? Damn, I don't have time to die yet. Welcome. Now to get your wisdom flowing. Grin. Mind you I think that keeping my mouth shut shows off the one wisdom I have best. Everyone seems to know the place to get a number to call in order to have a good time. Allen |
| Subject: Just turned 78 this past day | |
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Author: Peter Asher [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 00:24:45 03/27/12 Tue Went skiiing the other day for the first time in four years and everything still works. Yeah!! Just now saw the movie "Margin call" which was an incorrect title. Think it was based on AIG who just happened to finish paying back the 163B today. Who else has seen it? |
| Subject: Cricketer Thanks for coming | |
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Author: Allen JustamereBear [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 16:22:11 03/26/12 Mon Hopefully we can solve all the worlds problems, kiss our virtual horse and ride off into the sunset. ... or something. Grin welcome Allen |
| Subject: signing in | |
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Author: Cricketer [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 12:22:28 03/26/12 Mon lurking here Allen , always interested in your thoughts. |
| Subject: Tex | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 19:36:39 03/22/12 Thu Many thanks. Feel free and welcome at any time. Your friends too. Birds of a feather and all that. Grin Allen |
| Subject: Tim A PS to cover what I didn't address | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 19:28:14 03/22/12 Thu Tim, a PS The novel itself contains more or less one example of each type of common behavior and criminality I found during a number of years of research with a few caveats. First corruption was wildly understated in the novel as compared to reality. In fact criminal behavior in general occurred daily and many of the different examples of each occurred daily. Other things underweighted were fraud which was endemic. Another type of crime can be best typified by an example taken from the USSR when it went down in the 1990’s “Apartments” or “condos” were as close to being owned as we know it as possible. Crook approaches elderly “owners” who are flat broke and need food. Offers to “buy” the condo for cash and elderly can occupy it till their death. What the elderly didn’t think of was that life expectancy was about 60 seconds after signing. If the elderly refused it was not unusual that the owner be killed anyway and records be amended showing the crook was, for example, married to the owner prior to death and was therefore eligible to inherit. Lots of suicides where the victim shot himself in the back of the head. Twice. I applaud your intention to research. I found it important too. If I were you In would concentrate on how the USSR went down in 1990. There are many more records available as to how daily life went on for the guy on the street, not just that Julius Cesar did this or that. As to your question about securities, my first reaction is no, but that would depend on the rest of your plan. At first I was on that page. If I had what I needed (Not only the idea to purchase) I could move fast enough to stay ahead. Purchasing at the time of collapse will be almost impossible when shelves clean out in minutes. About 4 years ago I decided that the moving at collapse time idea was not good and thank god I did. You discover small but difficult problems that are easily solved in todays world. Eg. Mosquito screen. Shoe laces break, etc. Possibly precious metals in hand might fit your needs but IMHO while they will run up nicely in dollar terms, pre collapse, the real value run up will be in purchasing power a year or two after the collapse. Good luck Allen PPS The options I used in the novel worked and would work well IN THAT CIRCUMSTANCE. Generally you will lose money 85% of the time when using options. It is more like fire insurance. You pay your fire insurance and your house doesn't burn down. You lose your premium but you are happy. The only time youy "make" money is during violent moves |
| Subject: Congratulations | |
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Author: Tex Norton (Very Happy for You!) [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 13:27:07 03/22/12 Thu Privately, you called to my attention that your website Forum was now up and running. Congratulations! I wish you much success in this ever-expanding endeavor! Cheers |
| Subject: Tim | |
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Author: Allen Currie [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 12:00:46 03/22/12 Thu I wish I did but my crystal ball is pretty murky. All I can say is it could happen tomorrow but more likely later this year. Or next year. Who knows how long government can paper over these cracks? The fact is the world financial system went bankrupt Aug. 17, 2008 and we have been running on fumes ever since. Given the recent draconian legislation being passed in the US, Chinas recent moves, etc., I think governments are pretty much aware and preparing for massive social disruption. On the other hand, NOBODY wants this and everyone who is aware is doing their utmost to stop or delay the chickens coming home to roost. I can't understand why anyone would want to be president of the US. The trigger event could come from anywhere. Greece still has a long way to fall and the rest of Europe is teetering and will fall. Japan is and has been among the walking dead for years. China, whose attitude has always been Machivellian seems to be becoming moreso. They could decide that in war there are always casualties, and if they were to pull the plug they would get hurt less than the rest of the world. (probably true) It is all about peoples confidence. As long as people believe that governments or god or somebody can restore us to what we had, and continue to go about life in what today is normal, then it doesn't matter whether every one of the banks are bankrupt or not. However currently more and more people are disturbed and small events can jiggle the jigsaw enough that a picture forms for them. When the situation reaches critical mass is anyones guess. In preparing, you have just become among the one percent. You have thought something might be possible. That means you won't stare at the Tsunami coming in but will begin to run for higher ground. Chances of survival go up exponentially based on that alone. That doesn't guarentee you will survive but the chances are much better. Having options (in your life, not the financial kind.)to allow you to take time to think about what is happening (like food) is the main thrust of my own preparations. Neither you nor I will forecast the future 100%. Moreover your circumstances are different enough that my best plan will not fit you and vice versa. Generally my goals and yours are common. To survive and thrive. The route we take climbing that mountain will be different. There are all sorts of resources on the net as food for thought. The survivalists/preppers are people who have thought long and hard and about surviving the world as they see it developing. The "gold/precious metals" hoarding people too. My problem with all of them is that they are all 'one trick ponies'. Some of their solutions are brilliant, especially IF the world develops as they think it will. But I think it unlikely that will happen. The survivalists seem to concentrate too much on guns, IMHO. The gold bugs think that they will become rich and can buy whatever they need. Both are essential of course, but no one solution fits all. As to your wife I think a deteriorating economic situation would justify stocking up on long shelf life foods. Similarly the number of tent cities springing up all over the place would justify looking around at a remote (read cheap to live) place. Just contingency planning of course. You are never going to be perfectly prepared. For a quarter of a century my preps have been a work in progress. As an aside, how did you come to find me? (Where did you see or hear whatever it was that caused you to read?) If you found the novel enjoyable and/or useful would you, or do you, tell your friends and acquaintances to read too? That is why I wrote the book in the first place, to alert people to the possability. After that they can ignore or act as they choose. Ultimately we are all responsible for our own actions despite the politically correct thinking today. That is mother natures way. Allen |
| Subject: timeline | |
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Author: Timothy Daniels [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 08:22:09 03/22/12 Thu Dr Mr. Allen Do you have a proposed timeline of our demise. I am very interested in preparing for what i see coming , but alas havent done the necessary research on how events would unfold. Also are there any securities that you would consider necessary to generate a large enough "noah's ark" to allow last minute preparations for surviving the tsunami? My wife is the prototypical "jan" and may not see the event as it should be seen until it is literally upon us. |
| Subject: Finally | |
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Author: Allen [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 10:21:48 03/14/12 Wed Well, finally we are up and running. My thanks to my long suffering guru Chris as the plans kept changing. It is hoped that we can have a wide ranging conversation and exchange of ideas on any subjects but partisan politics and comparative religions with no food fights or personal attacks. Logical arguments against or for ideas are highly valued. Anger is not. I really have nothing to threaten with at the moment, but rest assured that if the above disputes become prevelant, I will change things, probably to the discomfort of the broader community, unfortunately. At this time I encourage anyone to teach or learn without restriction. That is why we are here. Allen |
| Subject: Welcome To The New Operation Phoenix forum | |
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Author: Chris [ Edit | View ] |
Date Posted: 11:42:54 03/13/12 Tue It is hoped that this new forum will be found useful as a place to share information as we get closer to TEOTWAWKI. |
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