Let's discuss which variables are important. Here's a partial list. -- SPEAK UP

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Date Posted: 13:34:48 10/31/02 Thu
Author: Richard
Author Host/IP: 1Cust19.tnt1.gainesville.fl.da.uu.net / 67.243.7.19
Subject:

Let's discuss which variables are important. Here's a partial list.
In reply to: Kafka (Michael) 's message, "OK" on 12:35:53 10/31/02 Thu

Kafka,

One of the most important aspects of the argument is who was actually shaping economic policy. You have used a correlation between the economy and the White House. But I think it would be better to look at who controlled the Congress as well. That's one set of variables we can isolate very easily.

I think the next step would be to look at measures of the economy. Here are some we can find:

1. GDP
2. Unemployment Rate
3. Inflation
4. Per Capita Income

I think it would be a good exercise to look at the above 4 items by themselves and zero in on those times when things were going well and when they were going poorly. All of our data needs to be adjusted for inflation. So we must make that distinction.

I think the next step would be to try to determine what macro events caused the good or bad times. For example, we can trace some of the problems with the Great Depression to over speculation in the 1920's and also to the Taft-Hartley Act. We can also trace some of the problems of the 1970's to inflation and the war in Vietnam. But the war was not a 'policy'. Rather it was one of those uncontrolled elements like the weather in our analogy. At that point I think we would be at a point where we could discuss the actual policies put in place at the time.

This may be a long discussion, but I am rather anxious to at least get started. Even if we don't sort through the whole problem, we could at least make some good inroads. And who knows? Maybe I'll even learn something. Maybe at the end we can summarize our arguments and I'll publish them as an article on "The Public View".

Let me know how you would like to shape the list of variables. Remember, we can add or subtract as we go along. So we don't need to print any of this in stone for now. Also, if you prefer to use a different approach, let me know your thoughts on that.

Richard

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Replies:

Re: Let's discuss which variables are important. Here's a partial list. -- Kafka, 14:09:39 10/31/02 Thu
- OK, we're making progress -- Richard, 10:05:45 11/01/02 Fri
  - Re: OK, we're making progress -- Kafka, 17:17:51 11/01/02 Fri
Re: Let's discuss which variables are important. Here's a partial list. -- Brittany, 22:48:44 04/29/04 Thu