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Date Posted: 18:48:21 08/19/02 Mon
Author: Òðåéòÿê
Subject: ôîðìàëüíî
In reply to: Andrij 's message, "Re: ïðî äåìîêðàòè÷íó îïîçèö³þ" on 02:44:05 08/18/02 Sun

öå ôîðìàëüíî, ó öüîìó àíãëîìîâíîìó ïîâ³äîìëåíí³ "äåìîêðàòè÷í³ ñèëè" òîòîæí³ áåëîðóñüê³é îïîçèö³¿ âçàãàë³, áî ðåæèì Ëóêàøåíêà - àâòîðèòàðíèé. Îòæå, îïîçèö³ÿ àâòîìàòè÷íî ÷îìóñü ââàæàºòüñÿ äåìîêðàòè÷íîþ.

Ìåí³ æ éäåòüñÿ ïðî ñóòü.  öüîìó âèïàäêó ÿ âîë³þ ðîçð³çíÿòè ïîíÿòòÿ íàö³îíàëüíèé òà äåìîêðàòè÷íèé â òàêèé ñïîñ³á:

1. Íàö³îíàëüíà îïîçèö³ÿ - öå ò³, êîìó íàéá³ëüøå çàëåæèòü íà òîìó, ùîáè Á³ëîðóñü áóëà ÍÅÇÀËÅÆÍÎÞ, à íå áóëà ïðîâ³íö³ºþ ÷è íàâ³òü ñàòåë³òîì Ðîñ³¿, ÿê âîíà º çàðàç. Òîáòî âîíè ïîáîðþþòü ðåæèì Ëóêàøåíêà ç òî¿ ïðè÷èíè, ùî â³í âèðàçíî ïðîðîñ³éñüêèé.

2. Äåìîêðàòè÷íî-ë³áåðàëüíà îïîçèö³ÿ - öå ò³, êîìó íàéá³ëüøå çàëåæèòü íà äåìîêðàòè÷íîìó óñòðî¿ ñàìî¿ êðà¿íè, à ñïðàâà çáåðåæåííÿ ¿¿ ñóâåðåí³òåòó äëÿ íèõ äðóãîðÿäíà, à òî é çîâñ³ì íåâàæëèâà.

Ïåðåäáà÷àþ ìîæëèâ³ ïèòàííÿ, çàïåðå÷åííÿ íà çðàçîê "÷îìó ïåðøå íå ìîæå áóòè ³ äðóãèì âîäíî÷àñ", "ÿê â³äð³çíèòè".

Ùîáè â³äð³çíèòè, âèñòà÷ຠïðîâåñòè òàêå ñîö³îëîã³÷íå îïèòóâàííÿ, à â íüîìó çàïðîïîíóâàòè óÿâíó ñèòóàö³þ, äå ïðèñóòí³é òàêèé îáîâ"ÿçêîâèé âèá³ð "ç äâîõ ëèõ":
1. Íåçàëåæíà Á³ëîðóñü ç àâòîðèòàðíèì ðåæèìîì.
2. Ö³ëêîì äåìîêðàòè÷íà Á³ëîðóñü ÿê àâòîíîì³ÿ äåìîêðàòè÷íî¿ ë³áåðàëüíî¿ Ðîñ³¿.

Çâè÷àéíî, âèùåíàâåäåíà ñèòóàö³ÿ º ö³ëêîì óÿâíîþ, ÿê íà ñüîãîäí³øí³ ðåà볿 àëå âèá³ð "ç äâîõ ëèõ" ÿê òàêèé äîñèòü ÷àñòî òðàïëÿâñÿ â ³ñòî𳿠ð³çíèõ íàðîä³â. Îòæå, òàêèé òåñò ìຠïðàâî íà ³ñíóâàííÿ. À ÷åðåç íüîãî ìîæíà ä³çíàòèñÿ, ùî êîìó âàæëèâ³øå: äåìîêðàò³ÿ ÿê òàêà ÷è íåçàëåæí³ñòü?

Ó ñüîãîäí³øí³é Á³ëîðóñ³ äåìîêðàòè÷íà îïîçèö³ÿ áóëà çàïî÷àòêîâàíà ùå ïðèìóñîâèì ðîçâ"ÿçàííÿì ïåðåä-Ëóêàøåíê³âñüêî¿ Âåðõîâíî¿ Ðàäè, êîëè ÁÍÔ îïèíèâñÿ â îïîçèö³¿ ðàçîì ç êîìóí³ñòàìè. Àëå ïîì³òíîþ âîíà ñòàëà ï³çí³øå, êîëè ç"ÿâèâñÿ ö³ëèé ïðîøàðîê êîëèøí³õ ïîñàäîâö³â, âèãíàíèõ Ëóêàøåíêîì. Öÿ îïîçèö³ÿ äðóêóºòüñÿ ðîñ³éñüêîþ ìîâîþ, ïîÿñíþþ÷è öå òèì, ùî òàê áëèæ÷å äî íàðîäó (ÿê â³äîìî, íàïåðåñ³÷ á³ëîðóñè íàäçâè÷àéíî çðóñèô³êîâàí³), à òîé, õòî äðóêóºòüñÿ ó Á³ëîðóñ³ á³ëîðóñüêîþ, àâòîìàòè÷íî ââàæàòèìåòüñÿ á³ëüø³ñòþ íàðîäó íàö³îíàë³ñòîì, ôàøèñòîì, çáî÷åíöåì ³ ò.ï. ³ ò.ä. Ñïðàâä³, íàö³îíàëüíó îïîçèö³þ ï³äòðèìóº 10-15%, íå á³ëüøå. Íàòîì³ñòü, ãàñëî îá"ºäíàííÿ ç Ðîñ³ºþ ó Á³ëîðóñ³ äîñèòü ïîïóëÿðíå, ³ âåëèêî¿ â³äïîðíî¿ ðåàêö³¿ íàðîäó ïîçà òèìè 10-15-20 ìàêñèìóì â³äñîòêàìè ñïîä³âàòèñÿ íå òðåáà.

Îòæå, äåìîêðàòè÷íà îïîçèö³ÿ, ÿêà âî볺 ñêèíóòè Ëóêàøåíêà, ö³ëêîì éìîâ³ðíî, íå ï³äå ïðîòè îá"ºäíàííÿ ç Ðîñ³ºþ, â òîìó âèïàäêó, êîëè Ðîñ³ÿ çìîæå çàïåâíèòè ¿¿ ó òîìó, ùî Ëóêàøåíêà ç Á³ëîðóñ³ ïðèáåðóòü ãåòü. Ñêàæ³ìî, íà ïîñàäó ðîñ³éñüêîãî â³öå-ïðåì"ºðà, ÿê ïðîïîíóâàâ áóâ çîâñ³ì íåùîäàâíî Æèðèíîâñüêèé (à ùå êàæóòü, ùî â³í âàð"ÿò! :) ). Öå âèã³äíî çàðàçîì ³ äåìîêðàòè÷í³é îïîçèö³¿, ³ Ìîñêâ³.

Ãàäàþ, ùî öå âñå äîáðå ïðîðàõóâàëè ó Ìîñêâ³, íåäàðìà ó äåÿêèõ ðîñ³éñüêèõ ÷àñîïèñàõ ç"ÿâëÿëèñÿ ïðîòÿãîì îñòàííüîãî ðîêó ñòàòò³ íà ï³äòðèìêó "á³ëîðóñüêèõ äåìîêðàò³â" (Ïîçíÿêà í³êîëè íå çãàäóâàíî). Ëóêàøåíêà îáêëàäåíî ç óñ³õ áîê³â, ³ ç îïîçèö³éíîãî òåæ, íåíà÷å âîâêà ïðàïîðöÿìè.

Òðåáà äóìàòè, Ïóò³í íå ñòàâ áè ïðîïîíóâàòè á³ëîðóñàì óâ³éòè ïðîñòî äî ñêëàäó Ðîñ³¿, ³ íå ïðîïîíóâàâ áè òåæ ïðîâîäèòè ðåôåðåíäóì ç öüîãî ïèòàííÿ, ÿêáè ñèòóàö³þ íå áóëî ïðîðàõîâàíî çàçäàëåã³äü. ßêùî Ðîñ³ÿ ³ íàäàë³ áóäå òàêîþ íàïîëåãëèâîþ, òî âðÿòóâàòè á³ëîðóñüêó íåçàëåæí³ñòü çìîæå õ³áà ÿêèéñü íåçâè÷àéíèé çá³ã îáñòàâèí.

Îòæå, ñïðàâà íàö³îíàëüíî¿ îïîçèö³¿ ñêëàäàºòüñÿ çëå. Çãàäàíå âèùå àíãëîìîâíå ïîâ³äîìëåííÿ ïîõîäèòü ç³ ñë³â ïðåäñòàâíèêà íàö³îíàëüíî¿ îïîçèö³¿ (äèâ. "Alyaksandr Lukashenka" - öå òðàíñêðèïö³ÿ ç á³ëîðóñüêî¿)

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