| Subject: Re: Facts, fundamentals, forward analysis.writedown of ITS should ERG not win Sydney. |
Author:
Steve Bonkers.
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Date Posted: 01:53:46 01/30/02 Wed
In reply to:
Steve Bonkers.
's message, "Facts, fundamentals, forward analysis.30/1/2002." on 13:46:12 01/29/02 Tue
Carefully checked the balance sheet and the wording on the ERG website last night, going into it quite intensively, the 31 million, I'm convinced will be included(expenses were incurred in obtaining it, making it and the ongoing licensing fee's coming off it recurring, now change what was stated before (ie equity) it is quite clear to me, that with the use of the word "fee" a consideration will be paid to ERG, from the Cards consortium and ongoing licensing revenues for the next 20 years, the terms of the contract, prevent the De Carte consortium from onselling it to any other entity. It does not state cash as stated though it is clear as the "summers sun" it is.
There is one concern (once again reading everything with a fine tooth comb) and it relates to The Sydney Contract and what would happen should it not go ERG's way, it is quite an important point(can't recollect anyone mentioning it before) (if someone has my aplogies) and for those concerned about the share price would have great ramifications for it. (to the negative).
Later on tonight, get the research notes together, do a post on it bringing it to the forums attention. The negativity should the entity lose the contract, have a short term impact on the trading of ERG's shares which may or may not already be factored, in the authors opinion it would at the very least make for volatility.
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Above is earlier post to refresh memories.--it is not reposting the same material I don't think for I have added to it and made it different. I think it is important. I could retype the whole bloody thing into different words but I want to peel some spuds and have dinner! LOL
If the Sydney contract did not go ERG's way, they then state that they would writedown their investment in the ITS consortium that bid for it, this would be short term bad for the share price--re Pccw--Telstra---CPU--Etrade. As ERG (I think) was formed after 1988 (see N.E Renton) research database on PWR subject heading "amortising goodwill" by accountancy standard ERG would then be forced to amortise thier investment over 20 years, for unlike Caltex which was formed before 1988--they cannot get the pain over and done with immediately---but have to carry it for 20 years.(note the recent improvement in CTX share price)
On a personal note I find it frustrating to gather research material here at Hotcopper for it is spread all over the place like a "dogs dinner"--facts drive share prices and if you are doing high risk tech stocks every single one of them is important--better to know now than later.
At this stage hearsay and rumour has ERG being okay for Sydney, but other than people making a judgement before the judge does I regrd it as only that.
Decisions made are for the judicial system and I would not pre empt the courts decison, especially with Keycorp allied with Telstra The Fedral Government
against the State of N.S.W.
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