| Subject: Preview of the year |
Author:
The Serpent
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Date Posted: 12:14:31 10/16/03 Thu
Back by popular demand, the Serpent's views on this year's competition.
But first, a word of warning. The Serpent, having seen himself go from "apple salesman of the century" to having his reputation destroyed, he is also rather bitter, and prone to being less than nice about people.Having been around since the Garden of Eden, is prone to forgetfulness, factual inaccuracies, and a total lack of knowledge beyond his immediate sphere (that said, his knowledge of the apple trading industry is unmatched). In this particular context, that means that the Serpent has no knowledge at all of any universities outside the big six, that is Oxford, Cambridge, IC, Sheffield, Bristol, and Cardiff, except that Liverpool won IVDA 8 times in the 60's and 70's, that they're generally good fun and drink a lot, and, as teachers are want to say, "make a good effort".
Therefore, this review will be restricted to the chances for the big six, which I will address in the order that they finished last year.
1) Oxford. Why are they picked first when all three drew? Because they were the best team over the year, and the spanking of Cambridge at the Varsity match only went to confirm it. Over the whole year, Oxford did enough to justify the tag of the best team on the circuit. Oxford had the best ballroom side in a very long time, with at least 5 couples who expected to be in finals, and frequently in the top half of the finals. Oxford's latin was decent, though not quite as good as Cambridge's.
Who's gone?
Big question for Oxford, as last year's team has been decimated by departures, especially on the weaker latin side. Tris, Erica, Dave Georgina, Tomas, Laura, Greg are all gone. That is seven out of the team's top latin dancers from last year. The ballroom team is less hurt, but the loss of Sugata and Monica leave it weaker than last year.
The gaping void on the latin team is likely to suck Nick and Harriet, Oxford's most successful ballroom couple last year, onto the latin side, where they were regular finalists in open competitions last year (though were normally last in those finals). This is unlikely to leave the ballroom side especially weak, since Peter, Robin, and the fast improving and hugely impressive Dan will still be there to compete in ballroom. With Jane, Hazel and Sarah still around, and a couple of talented linguist girls back from a year's holiday, partners won't be a problem.
The key question for Oxford is who will be the second A-team latin couple. Whilst there are definitely candidates, and joint team captain Emmy was especially impressive towards the end of last year, it will need someone to step up to the plate and make that space their own if Oxford are to remain competitive.
The Serpent's verdict:
Last year: 1=
This year: Could be first again, but it will depend on the other universities. I think, though, that in the end it is likely to be Oxford 1st again, possibly in a tie.
Cardiff
Those readers who follow proper sports will know the oft-used distinction between "a collection of talented individuals" and "a team". The suggestion is always that the latter will beat the former. Which is often a load of bollocks. Nonetheless, Cardiff's team last year was in many ways "a team of individuals", which had some very good couples, but lacked the team spirit and collective drive, and just as importantly the strength in depth, to beat the "teams" of Oxford and Cambridge. The result - key couples left and Cardiff lost their chance. Had the whole side been available all year, Cardiff would probably have won. This year is unlikely to be much different.
Who's gone?
Always difficult to know with Cardiff. Various rumours suggest that whinging quickstepper Darren has left the team, though other rumours suggest that he hasn't. Other rumours suggest that Cardiff's A waltz couple have gone, though these are also unsubstantiated. What does seem to be probably is that Cardiff have got a new latin couple, a very strong pre-champ couple who I believe are called Alan and Elly. I've seen them dance and they're good. If they can improve at university rates, then they should win all year. If they can't, they'll probably win early on, but may drop off later. Cardiff were close last year. Much depends on whether they can keep last year's team together and add the new couple, or whether they have lost lots of people.
The Serpent's predictions
Last year: 1=
This year: I was going to predict 1st outright, but the chances are that the team will not include half the people we think it will. 4th
Cambridge:
Cambridge had a miraculous year last year, and team captain Rachelle should go down in history as one of the best. Why? Because Cambridge were competitive last year despite a shortage of really good dancers, especially on the ballroom side. The change of coach seemed to do them good, so they've done it again, bringing in the grinning Anton Du Boek, former amateur recently turned pro ballroom dancer, allowing existing coach Bruce Lait to concentrate on latin. If Anton can have the same effect as Bruce, Cambridge will be a force to be reckoned with. However, Cambridge need stability, something they haven't had, and need to find some ballroom partnerships that really work. Last year Cambridge relied to heavily on the ballroom side on veterans, and the strength in depth was not great, as was brutally exposed at the Varsity match.
Who's gone?
Paul and Vesna, last year's advanced ballroom champs, have gone. As have Solon and SuAnn, one half of Cambridge's latin A team. Those are big losses. There are also rumours that Ben Woolly, who is almost as old as I am (but is bloody reticent to buy my apples for some reason) may also be going, but frankly, the Serpent doesn't believe it. More worrying for Cambridge is the rumour that Beckham lookalike Scott may be going, though that is unsubstantiated. If he does stay, it's hard to see anyone beating him, although it remains uncertain how his temperament will hold up to the taunts of Oxford's newly hired Turkish defender. Various insults relating to Scott's mother are being prepared as we speak....
The Serpent's verdict:
Last year: 1=
This year: Cambridge don't look to have a desparately strong side. They need to find a regular partner for Mickey (can I suggest Mini?) and then cultivate that parternship. They need a new latin A team couple, and another new ballroom A team couple. It's hard to see Camrbidge winning. 3rd.
This is where my memory gets a bit hazy....
IC
IC had one of its poorest year's in ages last year. Having lost nearly all its top couples (no sorry, all of them), a lot of handwringing needed to be done. And was... After a year of consolidation, IC did surprisingly well. Team captain Tom did well at A cha, and there were a few ballroom couples of merit beginning to appear towards the end of the year. What IC lacked was a star couple to drive the team on to greater heights. This year, they have that. Paul and Vesna are widely rumoured to be dancing for IC this year. Furthermore, the new team captain should try and persuade Sugata to dance for IC and Oxford to release him. That would give IC a formidable ballroom side. On latin, more work is needed, but the competition doesn't look as strong as in previous years, and especially in a seeded match like IVDC, IC should do well.
The Serpent's prediction: A return to form. 2nd.
Bristol:
hmmm.... After thinking about how I can make this more than one line, I won't try: Bristol will do Ok, but not seriously challenge the bigger players. New talent is needed. It's been a while since anyone emerged at Bristol, and it looks a bit stale.
The Serpent's prediction: 6th, and maybe they'll win the offbeat again...
Sheffield:
Hugely disappointing after much was expected of them last year. Sheffield undoubtedly have some good couples, and always claim that they don't have their strongest couples at the competition (ahem, he says, stroking a slightly slimy little snake beard). However, I understand that tall quickstepping guy without a tailsuit, who I believe was called Dave (though I always get his name wrong). A decent ballroom couple appeared at Sheffield, though they failed to really hurt the big boys.
The Serpent's verdict:
Good enough for 5th, that's where they'll finish unless new blood arrives and home advantage carries them through.
That's about it, except to note that Stuart and Helen have gone from Southampton, which is likely to hurt their A team.
One question: London: Why are you not better? If Cardiff can get every Welsh dancer under the sun to dance for them, surely you can get some decent amateurs from around London to do so. If you did, you'd probably give the rest of the circuit a good thrashing...
PS. The Serpent, as ever, is merely a nom de nectarine. Despite the impression given, it is quite beyond the natural lives of snakes to live so long, and not even the clevererest of snakes have yet learnt to type.
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