Subject:  Roaring vs Moaning |
Author:
tjm
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Date Posted: 12/14/05 2:21:31pm
In reply to:
tjm
's message, "hobocamps, souplines and 3 day old bread" on 12/14/05 1:48:38pm
I'm sure everyone has heard or read this news in the last few days. my optimistic self marvels at the fact that during some of the hardest times:
war costs
hurricane one
hurricane two
uncertain economy
we have the type of economy that can do this? nothing is all good all the time but nothing is all bad all the time either.
obviously the game ain't over; lots can and will happen. i'm not putting sweet frosting on a pile of dung. i know what's under the snowfall if it lands on a dumpsite.
i'm not choosing sides but if given the choice between fatalistic pessimism and determined optimism i choose the latter. so much of it in the media is political gamesmanship it's discouraging to try to have a real dialogue.
i can say this: in the year when everyone around us predicted doom and gloom our small business is having the best year we've ever had. i suspect no one on the Voy has taken a pay cut recently. i may be naive but that's my personal experience and i monitor it day to day to day and i keep waiting for the
SHOE TO DROP LOUDLY.
i sure don't mind being warned though so thanks for the post pjk. i'll be looking into land sales in wiscoonsin.
i'm not kidding.
for now:::::::::
"Numquam incertus; semper apertus" =
"Never uncertain; always open"
it's good advice
"you can't steer a ship unless it's moving"
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^lifted off yahoonews site but have heard and seen it elsewhere
US economy roars despite hurricanes; growth upgraded to 4.3 percent Wed Nov 30, 5:10 PM ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) - The US economy weathered the impact of hurricanes better than experts had expected, expanding at a 4.3 percent annual pace in the third quarter, the government said, in an upward revision to its prior estimate.
The Commerce Department figure for gross domestic product ( GDP) was stronger than last month's estimate of 3.8 percent growth and ahead of the the 4.0 percent expected by Wall Street economists. The agency will make its final estimate next month.
The report suggests the economy overcame the impact of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which shut down much of US oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico and devastated areas around New Orleans, Louisiana. By squeezing energy supplies, the storms also led to a surge in oil prices.
"The fact that we added a 10th quarter of above-average growth amidst the hurricane devastation and the highest energy prices ever recorded is awesome," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.
"This revision was good news for the economy. Not only does it show a higher rate of growth, but it was from more sustainable sectors," added Drew Matus, an economist at Lehman Brothers.
"Less was from autos, and more was from investment and housing stock and capital and business equipment, things that will help with longer term growth."
Matus said the strong report suggests the Federal Reserve, which has already boosted rates in its past 12 meetings, will continue the trend.
"This showed the Fed still has some work to do and that at least 75 basis points of tightening is likely," he said.
Other analysts said the fourth quarter is likely to be weaker as debt-strapped US consumers retrench.
"Third-quarter economic growth was once again supported by strong consumer spending," said Joe Liro, an economist at Stone and McCarthy Research.
"Unfortunately, the consumer is not in position to provide such support in the fourth quarter, thus we anticipate a sharp slowing of fourth-quarter economic growth."
"We continue to expect growth to moderate to 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter as declines in auto sales indicate that overall consumption will be roughly unchanged in the fourth quarter," said Gregor Bush a BMO Financial Group.
"Early reports on industrial production, manufacturing activity and durable goods, however, suggest that there is some moderate upside risk to this estimate."
The upward revision for the third quarter was largely due to higher spending on non-durable goods and to more investments in homes and in business equipment and software.
As in the earlier estimate, growth was powered by consumer spending and business investments.
Consumer expenditures accounted for 2.97 percentage points of the growth, and showed an increase of 4.2 percent in the quarter.
Business investment accounted for 0.91 percentage points of growth in the quarter, and real estate was responsible for 0.50 percentage points.
These were partly offset by growth in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.
A key measure of inflation was revised lower. The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose at a 1.2 percent annual rate compared with an earlier estimate of 1.3 percent.
Separately, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book report the economy remains on a generally solid track, but with some pressures from high energy costs and a cooling of real estate in some areas.
The report cited moderate inflationary pressures, mostly due to high energy costs.
As for consumer spending, a key driver of the economy, the report said retail sales "increased in most districts, but many banks reported only modest year-over-year gains."
The Atlanta Fed, which includes the region hit hardest by Hurricane Katrina, "reported improving conditions, as several facilities came back on line and post-hurricane demand remained strong in several industries," the Beige Book said.
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