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Date Posted: 11:53:40 06/08/05 Wed
Author: Islandgirl
Subject: Interesting article about ratings and cancellations

I got this off the AP Entertainment Wire. Thought it was interesting, so I'm posting it here.

******

bc-tv-demographics|
(ndy)(ATTN: Entertainment editors)|
//On Television, the Right Number Is 18-49//|
|By Noel Holston|
|(c) 2005, Newsday|

Television works in mysterious ways. Not incomprehensible, just mysterious.
Consider the fate of ‘‘Joan of Arcadia,’’ a nice, theologically stimulating series about a teenage girl to whom God Almighty appeared in various human guises, from lunchroom lady to junior-class heartthrob. CBS recently announced that ‘‘Joan,’’ which averaged 8 million viewers per episode this past season, will not return in the fall. UPN, meanwhile, renewed ‘‘Veronica Mars,’’ its series about a high-school girl who helps out her detective dad. ‘‘Veronica’’ averaged 2.5 million viewers a week.
If this appears not to compute, it’s partly because programming TV networks is more about demography than democracy.
In Nielsen’s end-of-season tally, ‘‘Joan’’ ranked 70th in total viewers but was only 96th in the age 18-49 demographic that is the primary basis for prime-time advertising sales. While its older ‘‘skew’’ didn’t sit well with CBS programmers flush with victory and eager to lower the average age of their audience, it might yet have survived if its numbers hadn’t declined, relative to the previous season, by about 20 percent in both categories. Once a series starts to slip, it almost never rebounds.
‘‘Veronica Mars,’’ on the other hand, is considered a show with growth potential, especially in the coveted 18-49 demo. Inheriting the cult-show mantle of ‘‘Buffy the Vampire Slayer’’ didn’t hurt it, either.
There’s also a sort of relativity theory at work. CBS and UPN, both owned by Viacom, are different animals with different expectations.
CBS is an established network, one of the old Big Three, with about 210 affiliates nationwide. Its most popular series, ‘‘CSI: Crime Scene Investigation,’’ ranked second in Nielsen’s final rankings and attracted almost 27 million viewers weekly.
UPN is an upstart, a ‘‘weblet,’’ with 125 or so affiliated stations. (The network declines to give out an exact figure.) UPN has the major cities covered but can’t match the pervasiveness of the older broadcast webs. Its most popular series, ‘‘America’s Next Top Model,’’ tied for 106th place, averaged 5.1 million viewers. By that standard, ‘‘Veronica Mars’’ is a budding hit.
I bet I know what you’re thinking. If CBS and UPN have the same parent corporation and ‘‘Joan of Arcadia’’ averaged almost 3 million more viewers than UPN’s most popular series, then wouldn’t Viacom be wise to shift ‘‘Joan’’ to UPN? Wouldn’t it automatically become UPN’s biggest hit?
Not necessarily. In fact, probably not. Remember the mantra: Television works in mysterious ways. And by that I don’t just mean the corporate part, I mean the whole organism -- the audience and the programmers who are engaged in an ongoing negotiation.
Even if UPN had as much money to spend per hour for programming -- and you need only watch about 10 minutes of ‘‘Veronica Mars,’’ ‘‘Kevin Hill’’ or ‘‘Star Trek: Enterprise’’ to grasp that they don’t have CBS-sized budgets -- a series such as ‘‘Joan of Arcadia’’ would lose a significant chunk of its viewers in the transition. Even a ‘‘CSI’’ would be diminished by such a shift. UPN still isn’t on a lot of viewers’ radar. It lacks CBS’ promotional base. Its lower Nielsens are to some extent self-perpetuating.
In case you wondered, ‘‘Joan’’ was not the highest-rated prime-time series canceled. Far from it. ABC’s ‘‘Blind Justice’’ (68th), NBC’s ‘‘Medical Investigation’’ (60th) and ‘‘Law & Order: Trial by Jury’’(35th), and CBS’ ‘‘Judging Amy’’ (36th) all had more viewers. ‘‘Veronica Mars,’’ however, was the lowest-rated show renewed.
Here are some other tidbits gleaned from Nielsen’s final ranking of shows for the 2004-05 season:
-- Most improved performance: ABC’s 15th-ranked ‘‘Extreme Makeover: Home Edition,’’ which upped its total-viewer tally by 42 percent and its 18-49 showing by 51 percent. The original ‘‘Extreme Makeover,’’ in which faces, not homes, were razed and reconstructed, suffered a ratings decline almost as dramatic and was canceled (although it will be back as a series of specials next season). Second most improved: ABC’s ‘‘Alias’’ (up 26 percent in total viewers, 20 percent in 18-49).
-- Biggest losers: NBC’s ‘‘Will & Grace’’ (44th) was down 33 percent in total viewers, 41st in 18-49 viewers. (As Bette Midler used to sing, ‘‘You got to have friends.’’) Also slip-sliding were NBC’s ‘‘The Apprentice 3’’ (down 32 percent in total viewers, 37 percent in 18-49ers) and ‘‘Scrubs’’ (down 33/38 percent), and Fox’s ‘‘Malcolm in the Middle’’ (down 33/31 percent) and ‘‘The O.C.’’ (down 28/30 percent).
-- Most successful use of filler: the Wednesday night ‘‘results’’ telecast of ‘‘American Idol,’’ which included less than a minute of meaningful content, was third-ranked for the season.
|
Distributed by the Los Angeles Times-Washington Post News Service

AP-NY-06-08-05 1233EDT

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