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Date Posted: 01:50:23 04/29/03 Tue
Author: H_Bergeron
Author Host/IP: pcp02148573pcs.neave01.pa.comcast.net / 68.81.252.202
Subject: submitted for your consideration....

an interesting article from Jerry Pournelle


Governing Iraq


It's the standard cliche,

"we won the war, now comes the hard part." 

So. What do we do now?
How can we build democracy in Iraq?

Is there a chance for success?


Middle Class Rule 


Aristotle defines democracy as rule by the middle class,
the middle class being those who possess the goods of fortune in moderation.
There have been a lot of other definitions of democracy, but that one endures:
it has been a characteristic of every working democracy that lasted long enough to make the history books.
The implications are worth examining.


First, note that nothing has been said about religion, birth, military ability,
family connections, or anything else but property.

The ruling class is defined by an economic condition:
and that condition is the possession of property, not excessive amounts of property but not zero either. 


Marx said that history would end only when the proletariat -- those who had no property --
became rulers and everything was held in common or owned by the state.
He made no distinction between those conditions.

The end result of Marxism has been rule by the nomenklatura, Djilas's "New Class",
everywhere it has been tried, and there is no reason to suppose it won't work that way every time.
When the state is the sole employer, dissent means starvation,
and power comes only from climbing the political ladder.


Most states that have tried democracy by enfranchising the proletariat
have ended with "one man, one vote, once,"
after which a strong man takes charge and ends the electoral process.
We then have rule by one party, such as the Baath,
or maybe rule by the bogeymen as they demonstrated in Haiti.

Incidentally, it may not be true that Haiti was as well off under Papa Doc,
Baby Doc, and the Tonton Macout as it is under the US-imposed thugs,
but I haven't seen any evidence contradicting that proposition.

Our nation-building experiments in this hemisphere don't augur well for what's going to happen in the Middle East.

The task, then, is to empower middle class in Iraq. Can this be done?


Well, on the plus side, Iraq has a middle class.
There are people there who own property, and many are well educated.
Most are literate. They're not all proletarians and thugs.

On the other hand, Iraq has never had a democracy,
and the middle class in Iraq has never had any power.
Ever.


Empowering people who have never had any experience of governing is a
tricky proposition at best.


Can You Afford To Lose?


The central question in a democracy is, can you afford to lose the election?
If you try and fail, is loss total?
Will you be jailed, your property confiscated, your family jailed or killed?

If the consequences of
loss are enormous, then you don't let the ballot box
be the final decision. Nor should you.


The first thing we must do is assure the losers they can afford to lose, and that we will be there to protect them.


read the rest of the article here

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Replies:

[> Jerry Pournelle used to write for Byte Magazine (an ancient computer periodical), if it is the same guy. Now he's pontificating on politics. Interesting. I guess we should all try to be flexible. -- SurveyGuy, 19:14:37 04/29/03 Tue (pcp01422563pcs.lndsd201.pa.comcast.net/68.81.153.209)

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