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Date Posted: 11:10:12 12/28/22 Wed
Author: Jasper
Subject: Harris Kupperman on 2023

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Turning to other themes, my strongest held view is that 2023 is the year of oil crushing all other CUSIPs. I know I made the case in early 2022 for a similar outcome, but sometimes things just don’t play out on my schedule. In the months since then, there has been minimal spending growth on exploration, while global demand has continued to rebound and grow. The postponement of my theme was mainly caused by the unexpected purge of SPR inventory, along with China going offline due to germs.

These two trends seem destined to reverse during 2023. Meanwhile, Russian oil production is permanently impaired and likely in free-fall. When I tally these three components, I come to a mind-numbing swing of nearly 5 million bbl/d. Now, I know the swing cannot actually be this large—mainly because demand will suffer given the magnitude of the swing. However, demand will only suffer at triple digit oil prices.

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/oil-will-crush-all-other-investments?

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