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Subject: Oct15thNotes – difference view on CN analysis4/10/02 11:33:46 AM 5592770


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hahahaa (ID#: 367398)difference viewCN analysis
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Date Posted: 15:32:50 01/14/03 Tue

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hahahaa (ID#: 367398) Oct15thNotes – difference view on CN analysis 4/10/02 11:33:46 AM 5592770
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Hi Oct15thNotes. I hold a different view on CN. Whether the converted notes are converted or not would make little difference to the ERG balance sheet.
If the CNs are converted, the saving on interest is about 1.8 million per year ($22.8M * 8%). However, this saving would be offset by the lower interest on borrowing to pay for the conversion shortfall to the notes holder.

In view of the ever declining share price, the shortfall in the conversion is also increasing and is unfortunately get closer and closer to the full value of $22.8M. This is quite different from the 10 to 5 million dollar shortfall which one month ago ERG thought they would be paying.

The bottom line is, saving a few million as a result of the notes conversion is not going to make any difference to the ERG spreadsheet. I think the market would be a lot more worry that that the CN have now been converted from ‘virtual’ debt to real debt.




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