VoyForums
[ Show ]
Support VoyForums
[ Shrink ]
VoyForums Announcement: Programming and providing support for this service has been a labor of love since 1997. We are one of the few services online who values our users' privacy, and have never sold your information. We have even fought hard to defend your privacy in legal cases; however, we've done it with almost no financial support -- paying out of pocket to continue providing the service. Due to the issues imposed on us by advertisers, we also stopped hosting most ads on the forums many years ago. We hope you appreciate our efforts.

Show your support by donating any amount. (Note: We are still technically a for-profit company, so your contribution is not tax-deductible.) PayPal Acct: Feedback:

Donate to VoyForums (PayPal):

Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1234 ]


[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

Date Posted: 02:19:05 10/03/03 Fri
Author: 魯賓.凱德隆
Subject: 美元弱日圓強有利亞股 富達全球新興市場分析師指出臺、港、泰、南韓、印度股市中線仍相對看好

(記者吳麗香/臺北報導)富達全球新興市場技術策略分析師魯賓.凱德隆(Ruben Calderon)昨日指出﹐短期而言雖然亞股面臨高檔修正壓力﹐不過由於技術面﹐MSCI世界指數已正式開啟中多格局﹐加上全球央行致力寬鬆貨幣﹐通貨再膨脹(reflation)的過程正在進行﹐弱勢美元、強勢日圓環境將相當有利於亞洲(不含日本)股市的向上發展。

美元走貶是造成近期股市的波動加大的主要原因。不過﹐魯賓.凱德隆強調﹐根據過去三十年經驗﹐弱勢美元、強勢日圓卻往往有利於亞股發展﹐以1978年、1986年、1990年、及1995年美元呈現超賣情況為例﹐皆促使日本出口指數及亞洲股市同步上揚。就線型上看來﹐目前美元仍處於下降趨勢﹐過於悲觀的情緒更加深美元弱勢格局﹐而歐元則處於上升趨勢。

魯賓.凱德隆也提出「亞洲道氏理論」﹐他認為運輸類股的走勢可視為亞股大盤的領先指標。道氏理論由華爾街日報創辦人查爾斯.道發明﹐其理論基礎在於只要經濟好轉﹐製造業開始增加生產﹐則企業對於國內外運輸的需求均會跟著水漲船高﹐因此運輸類股等於是景氣擴張的領先指標。而由1983年以來亞洲(不含日本)運輸類股指數與50周移動平均線之間的關係﹐亦可發現同樣現象﹕今年四月份當亞洲(不含日本)運輸類股指數向上穿越50周移動平均線之後﹐亞股大盤即開啟了長達五個月的波段反彈﹐說明道氏理論在亞洲同樣適用。

魯賓.凱德隆認為﹐此波亞股上漲速度又急又快﹐就技術面而言﹐香港、印度、南韓、臺灣、泰國股市中線仍相對看好。

[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

Post a message:
This forum requires an account to post.
[ Create Account ]
[ Login ]
[ Contact Forum Admin ]


Forum timezone: GMT-8
VF Version: 3.00b, ConfDB:
Before posting please read our privacy policy.
VoyForums(tm) is a Free Service from Voyager Info-Systems.
Copyright © 1998-2019 Voyager Info-Systems. All Rights Reserved.