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>>Saskatoon-Northwest: I really think you are >overestimating the Grits here. While McDonough is one >of their better candidates, being a former educational >bureaucrat is hardly high profile. And I've never >heard anything to suggest the pro-life movement is any >stronger here than any other urban seat in the >province -- that is to say, not very. Melenchuk won >last time on the personal capital of being a party >leader, narrowly defeating an NDP incumbent. If he >can hold most of the NDP vote and carry over any >significant amount of personal vote, he'd be hard to >beat. Merriman is probably the best SaskParty >candidate in Saskatoon. They'd have been better off >running him in another seat, methinks. Barring a >rout, I think Melenchuk holds. > > >>Saskatoon-Eastview: Junor is far and away the weakest >member of the NDP cabinet. Heck, she got booted out >of it twice for failing without a real portfolio >(minister for seniors, minister for the status of >women, provincial secretary, associate minister of >health -- not a real job among them). But I can't see >the Liberals coming on enough to put her into third. >The seat is likely the best SaskParty prospect in >Saskatoon. > >> >>Saskatoon-Meewasin: Interesting tidbit -- NDP >candidate Frank Quennell is the older brother of >Liberal leader and candidate David Karwacki's Chief of >Staff Les Quennell. I'd say the edge is to Frank in >this family feud, but Karwacki's status as leader >could put him over the top. > >> >>Yorkton: This seat has had a government MLA since at >least 1971 (and I think since the 1950s). This could >be the first time in a generation or more that the >Yorkton MLA -- whoever wins -- is relegated to the >opposition benches. > >> >>Regina-Qu’Appelle Valley: Darlene Hincks' strength as >a candidate is not her civil service job but the name >recognition of many years on city council. In fact, >the name recognition was enough to get her ex-husband >Terry elected in her old ward. But this is a better >seat for Wartman than the one he took in 1999. >Probably the SaskParty's best prospect in Regina. > >> >>Melville-Saltcoats (note the correct name of the >seat): What I'm hearing is that you can stick a fork >in Bjornrud, he's done. One of my contacts even >figures he may end up behind the Liberal in fourth, >though I find that a little hard to swallow. Slight >edge to Schmidt, but Osika could yet pull it off. > >The interesting seat I think you are missing is Regina >Albert South, where the Liberal candidate is former >Catholic school board chair, former SSTA president and >former national Catholic trustee association president >Debbe Ward. A long time Liberal, she did flirt with >the SaskParty for about a year before returning to her >roots. She is probably the strongest Liberal prospect >in the province apart from Karwacki himself. She is >up against young Andrew Thomson in a seat that is not >a natural NDP hold -- never held it prior to 1991. > >The other interesting race is in North Battleford >where, according to some reports, Liberal incumbent >Jack Hillson is running third. The NDP candidate is >former MP and more recently city councillor Len Taylor >-- the first person ever to win the Battlefords >federal seat twice in a row, and the person who topped >the civic election ballot in 2000. I haven't heard of >the SaskParty candidate, but apparently it is a race >between these two. > >There are two rural seats (besides Melville-Saltcoats) >where the SaskParty may be in some trouble. Both >Saskatchewan Rivers and Lloydminster, I'm hearing, >have seen some momentum to the NDP, but I'm not >confident in the credibility of my source.

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