| Subject: THE BIG PREDICTION POST |
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Date Posted: 16:52:05 12/15/22 Thu
Happy Miss America day!
In CT, this is nowhere near the event that it used to be, it just seems to come and go quickly. But I have enjoyed these past few days. I have enjoyed pageant season being able to watch the contestants earlier this summer and now see them at Miss America. It’s always exciting, and what a lovely class of young women this year. Sometimes there are years where you think there will be a nightmare winner, but I think that this year everyone will be happy or satisfied with the winner. A lot of nice, thoughtful young women. I am anxious to know who it will be.
The following had a nice week but just didn’t stand out enough in each category that I anticipate seeing them in the top 10:
AK-I definitely don’t see a repeat for them, but Jessica is a lovely young woman. I appreciated the story she told about the Alaska sisterhood, it is wonderful that she gets to represent them.
AZ-She hasn’t been bad all week at all, I just don’t think she did enough to separate herself. I enjoyed her clogging, though.
CO-Had a weaker talent, so I do not anticipate her making the cut. She did well in gown, though, very pretty girl.
CT-I just didn’t think she stood out from the crowd enough, she was a bit subdued. But I really enjoyed her talent.
DE-This one pains me, she is absolutely sweet and adorable. I just don’t think she did enough competition wise. But she is such a wonderful young woman, I know the future is very bright for her.
DC-She did well enough in gown and sounded very intelligent, but I didn’t see that she did enough to stand out from among the crowd this week.
ID-I really enjoyed her, I enjoyed hearing about her teaching stories, and her talent was enjoyable. I know she has a bright future.
IL-I really liked her platform, and I think she’s a great young woman. She just didn’t stand out enough this week.
MT-She has done everything that she needed to do, but there are only so many slots open in the top 10. She made Montana proud, and I really enjoyed her this week.
NH-She is a really cute and sweet girl, great platform, and she seems very joyful. I didn’t think she stood out this week but she will do great things with her platform.
NJ-I really liked her answer onstage, and she seems very bubbly and natural. I just didn’t think she set herself apart from the competition.
NM-I liked her gown presentation and talent music. She didn’t really set herself apart from the crowd this week, but she seems like a lovely young woman.
NC-I really like her, and I know she’s got some serious pipes. She seems like a great young woman and she didn’t do poorly at all, just not enough to stand out.
WA-Like NC she didn’t do poorly at all, just not enough to set herself apart. I liked her gown presentation, and I really thought she did a great job answering her SII question.
VT-She is a fantastic speaker, but her talent was subpar. She looks like a young Mariska Hargitay and seems like a great young woman. She no doubt has a bright future.
The following I do not really expect to see but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if I did:
ME-You know I LOVE her. But Maine has a very hard time as a state cracking the top 10/15 at Miss America. The only thing I would say in her favor is that judges have been looking beyond the state in these last years and perhaps they will fall in love with her like many of us in the audience. She has something about her.
MO-I saw her win her state pageant, she is very pretty, a very pretty dancer. She is a bit laid back compared to some of the other contestants, and I think that is why we probably won’t see her. But the judges might find her charming.
ND-Since Cara’s win, the state has been on an upward trend. I really liked her all week, and she was one of my pleasant surprises. I don’t think we will see her but I think she did well enough that if she meshes with the judges, we might see her.
RI-I really liked her, her gown was beautiful. I think she didn’t quite do enough to stand out from some of the others but I think she did have something unique and likeable about her that might make the judges notice her.
TN-She should run to USA, she is a very pretty young woman and looks fantastic. Or Volunteer. Her talent wasn’t quite up to snuff and she didn’t do enough otherwise, but you never know.
UT-She was good enough and consistent, but probably not enough to stand out from some of the others who did better.
WY-I just think she seemed a bit inexperienced but she was absolutely adorable. I think she has a future in pageants and now there are two systems in which she could succeed. She is very likeable and genuine, I am thinking that she might sneak In if the judges like her.
The following I think are a possibility, not given. I could really see them going either way:
AL-This is a state with a very strong reputation. She is very much like the Miss AL last year where she had an entertaining and pleasing talent, good on onstage question. I don’t think she is as strong, though. Just based on state reputation, I cannot rule her out.
HI-She is one where I think if she connected with the judges could go far, if not, then we will likely not see her. Her talent was really one that I couldn’t figure out. It started out weak but she can definitely sing. She looked good in a gown and HI has a good state program overall. So, it’s hard to say.
KS-Her talent was very nice, I would say she was the strongest of the lyrical dancers this year. She does have a compelling personal story. It is all going to come down to how she connected with the judges.
KY-She has the personality of the pageant. It’s as if she got the genes of Chera Lyn Cook and Richard Simmons. She is very outgoing and very comfortable with herself, and also very intelligent. I have a feeling if the judges love her and are feeling her she could go a long way.
MI-I really can’t count her out. Her talent was entertaining enough, and she is a good, positive speaker. It’s going to be close, but I haven’t ruled her out.
MN-She was consistently good across the board this week. I found her to be well-spoken and she did stand out a bit. Again, it will come down to how she connected with the judges.
MS-She has also been one who has been consistently good across the board all week. She doesn’t completely jump out from the crowd, but she has been good enough to make the top 10.
OH-I am not sure about her. Sometimes I saw brilliance from her and sometimes she seemed a bit off. I think it will come down to her interview. She certainly has good talent and she looked good in a gown. I could see her going far or missing the top 10 completely. I just don’t know.
OR-She is really cute, and she has a lot of personality. Her talent was certainly good enough, and she always seemed enthusiastic. I am not certain she makes the top 10 but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see her.
SD-She has been refreshing this week. Her talent was solid enough, she looked nice in a gown, and had something natural and refreshing about her. I would not be surprised to see her.
VA-This is a state with a stellar reputation who can bring out the most in their competitors. I think she is ready and had a consistent competition all week. It will just be about how she connected with the judges. I would not be surprised if we see her and I would not be surprised if we do not see her.
WV-This is another state with an uphill climb, but I haven’t ruled her out entirely. She is unique, managed to blend her platform in with her talent, and was very positive. I really enjoyed her this week.
The following are strong bets to end up in the top 10. While I realize there are only so many slots, I think these have the greatest chance of making it:
AR-Ebony has been good all week, I scored her high in each of her categories. Certainly consistent enough across the board, great state reputation. I think there is a good chance we see her in the 10 tonight.
IA-She is hit or miss for me, it just depends how the judges connected with her in interview. If she hadn’t won a preliminary I probably wouldn’t have her anywhere near the 10. Her talent was weaker, actually, and I am not sure that one category is enough to make her that consistent. But it still counts for something.
LA-She has been consistently good across the week, and it is a state with a great record at Miss America. Her talent was probably one of the stronger ones the first night, and that will count for something.
MA-Despite her poor talent showing, she oozes confidence and you definitely notice her. She may not win with that talent but I do think she has enough going for her that a top 10 is a distinct possibility.
NE-I have to hand it to the Miss Nebraska program. Ever since Teresa’s win they have been sending quality contestants to Miss America; this year is no exception. I thought she was very skilled at the baton and appreciated that she did a true dance rather than just a fast-paced baton act. She had a good story as well and I think she has a strong shot at the top 10.
NV-She has been consistent across the board this week, definitely one of the better talents in the pageant. She is a good, positive speaker, has a lot of good energy. I could see her doing very well tonight.
NY-The ONLY reason I have her in this category is state reputation alone. If she were from another state I would say no. But this is NY after all, and they know how to get it done year after year. There is just something off about her-kind of her demeanor, I didn’t think she could speak very well during the competitions. But you can’t discount a Miss NY.
OK-It’s funny, when I saw her state pageant I thought potentially top 5 at Miss America. That is entirely possible still. She looks fantastic in a gown and had to have done well in red carpet. Her talent wasn’t anything that blew you away but it was certainly sufficient.
PA-Above average in red carpet, good speaker, talent certainly is passable. She has a compelling personal story and she did well expressing herself. I think she is a strong possibility for the top 10.
SC-She was probably the best pop/non-classical vocalist in the whole pageant. She has a compelling personal story and did well in red carpet as well. It’s been a few years for SC but I think they might be back this year.
Now, to the few who are my sure things:
CA-Catherine has probably been the most consistent across the board of the non-winners. She is talented at the piano, looked good in a gown, and speaks very intelligently and confidently. I cannot imagine a top 10 without her.
FL-She is also one of the non-winners who I think pops out. She has a great stage presence, may have won her red carpet round and does well overall. Her talent isn’t as good as some of the other lyrical dancers but FL has a great record at Miss America, and I think Lindsey will continue that tradition.
GA-I thought she was a potential double winner but she had to have scored well. I think people will like her. She’s very humble and yet when she performs, she’s just a natural. Something comes alive in her. She reminds you of a Miss GA of old.
IN-With her having won preliminary talent she is definitely in the top 10. She presents herself well and seems like an overall total package. Her speaking extemporaneously seems a bit weak, but she is overall a strong candidate.
TX-There isn’t a year where Miss TX doesn’t make the cut, and I am sure this is no exception. Averie still has a lot of qualities that scream Miss America to me. While she might not have been winning every category she was still consistent. She still has a lot to like and I think the judges will see that.
WI-Preliminary talent win and she is highly intelligent. She definitely fits the mold of some of our previous winners and successful contestants where she is talented and brilliant at the same time.
So, who do I think is going to win?
This year it is really hard to say. What seemed to work in the past is not resonating this week. Usually classical talents (piano, opera) won preliminaries. As far as SII, that could go many different ways. So, it is very hard to say what the judges are looking for. I think this makes it fun rather than being so predictable. There were years when we knew who was going to win. The ones I am taking the closest look at are:
WI-She is talented and can talk nuclear energy with the best of them. I think she might be great to pull in some corporate sponsors, ones which might provide scholarships and some interest in the program where there is money to be had. I said the same about Camille but to be fair, she was during a COVID year and couldn’t do much. I don’t really see any weaknesses in her competition. She reminds me of Erin Andrews in looks and is tall and statuesque like her. There’s a lot to like.
GA-It’s funny because I didn’t have GA on my radar this year. It’s not that I don’t, because this is a tremendously successful state. With Victoria I did, although I did not know much about Kelsey. I think people would like her if she won, she would be popular. I do like that quality about her that she is humble and yet just goes out and does her thing very well.
As far as the non-preliminary winners, it’s really hard to say. I think CA has been the most consistent but does she have the Miss America qualities they are looking for? And what are they looking for this year? Trying to bring attention to the program almost seems moot. They can’t really pick a winner for what they are looking for. I love Emma and we barely heard a word about her. So, trying to strategically pick a winner is not really much of a factor.
I would say Georgia based on her consistency throughout the competition, state success, and her seemingly kind personality, but I just don’t know.
Now I am off to a Christmas party! We aren’t having the best weather here where I am and we all have an agreement that we are going to end early. So I might be around an hour behind on commentary but I will comment as I start to watch and go along. BEST OF LUCK to all of the lovely ladies, and I can’t wait to meet our new Miss America! THANK YOU to all of you who have been reading and commenting all week.
Talk to you all soon enough!
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