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Date Posted: 17:30:52 05/07/22 Sat
It has been a fantastic week of competition. This is the good old-fashioned pageant that we have been looking for. Talent, swimsuit, and evening gown, no gotcha questions, no rambling on about platforms like a boardroom meeting. I commend everyone at the Miss Volunteer America pageant and the system which was created. I will post more about the positive way I see this organization going in another post, but first I wanted to give an overall picture of the week and my predictions.
It is hard to judge “what” the judges are looking for, but I would say I did not disagree with any of the preliminary winners. All were very deserving. The weakest one was GA but it was a weak night in that group. And I do not disagree with her win, I just thought IN was better but again, it was a weak group. Two of the three preliminary winners were dancers, one vocalist. The swimsuit winners were absolutely right on target. There is a double preliminary winner with TN and she is a fierce competitor. There are other non-preliminary winners who have had good weeks and they must also be considered. I think we are all challenged right now to want to compare this to the MAO, but we really cannot do that. It is a totally different system and one which we never saw before in competition. So, it is hard to say what they are looking for. And let’s face it-“what” they are looking for at Miss America changes from year to year and nobody fits into a particular mold. Of late especially, judges are seeming to crown who they fall in love with, which is the case with Emma Broyles, Cara Mund, and some of the others. When it comes down to it, you always have to answer this question no matter which system it is: who is standing out?
Right now for me, TN is probably the strongest “competitor.” She is at the top of the preliminary judges list in her group and I had her very high in EG only behind SC. And that’s just preference. She has to be considered a or the frontrunner right now. Me personally, I would not have a problem if she won. She is a very strong competitor and if this was run by someone else, it would almost be a crime if she did not win. However, for the sake of the program, it cannot happen. It would look bad because she was personally trained by the executive director of the whole program. Even if this were years down the road it would still not be a good look. Some people still talk about the Shindles 25 years later And from a state standpoint or competitor standpoint, I would feel very skeptical to compete in such a system. I am not sure how this will be handled but this would blow up big time. Again, I do not have a problem with it but I absolutely see the problem from the outside looking in. And let’s not forget, there are 50 other competitors who had strong weeks.
I hate to start with the negative, but I work my way up to the top. Here are the contestants who I unquestioningly do not see advancing to the top 15: AK, AZ, ID, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NM, OH, SD, VA and WY.
Just a note: I really like some in this group, including MN. She has gorgeous eyes and is very pretty, I would love to see her in another system someday.
The next group where I really do not think they will advance but not totally off my radar is: AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, FL, IN, IA, KS, NC, OR
A couple of notables or ones I had comments about:
AL-She is from a state which enjoys success in all systems. She has been decent but she just doesn’t stand out in a group. Plus, her talent was really old school pageant cheesy. The only reason I have her is because she is Miss Alabama and that goes a long way.
CA-I think she is really cute and I still like her despite just seeming to lack polish this week. I think had she learned to pull herself together and get a bit more “fierce” rather than silly in talent and over the top in swimsuit, she might have gone a long way. But her overall presentation this week has been way off.
FL-Follow my reasoning here: I think if she had won SS last night I would have put her into the top 15 but it was totally hinging on that. She did well in SS and I thought she looked good in gown too, but she has really weak talent. And she kind of blends in otherwise. I think she needed to do something like win a preliminary to stand out, and she just did not.
IA-She has been one of my favorites this week, really cute, really natural. Even though it was definitely old school pageanty she made a way to make it new. She has an impressive academic resume as well. I just do not think she separated herself and others performed a lot better. But I still really like her.
NC-She is another one who did not quite stand out from the crowd this week, but I really like her. Everything she did she had a beautiful smile on her face, I loved her in evening gown, and she’s a very pretty girl. I gotta say, you grow em right in NC. I absolutely loved Ashlen Batson at MAO this past year, Michelle Warren is still my goddess, I loved Kelley Bradshaw and Kirstin Elrod, and the list goes on.
My in between contestants who I could see it going either way for are: IL, KY, and WA. Some that I am going to mention will be at the end of the category after I have my firm predictions but these three I have to put in the “I wouldn’t be surprised either way.” They could totally miss it or totally be in the top 15, though I wouldn’t really have them cracking the top 10. IL had a decent week and was consistent enough, though not totally strong. KY was also the same way and her talent was unique. WA was also the same way and she’s really cute, it could take her a long way.
Who I have in my top 15:
FIRMLY
GA-With her talent win and strong presentations in SS and EG, she is a lock for me. Depending on how she does, maybe top 5. I do not see her as the winner, though. Even though she is a good competitor I do not think she has the “it” factor.
HI-At very least I have her in the top 15 after her win last night. For me personally, she has exuded something which a lot of the contestants do not. She exudes a warmth, a welcoming personality, and something that draws you to her. I thought she was consistent in evening gown. Her talent was hula and you really cannot judge a hula to be in a poor category. It’s beautiful, I know we have all seen it many times before. But guess what? Not everyone can do it. Just because it is something that a lot of girls and women in HI learn does not mean that everyone can do it, and should be judged appropriately. I could realistically see her maybe only making the top 15 and not advancing or she could be one that goes really far depending on how the judges connect with her. She’s one of my wild cards, but firmly in the 15.
LA-I really cannot figure out how she never won Louisiana. She’s a National Sweetheart for chrissakes. Kaitryana has had a good, consistent week, particularly strong in SS and EG. Her talent was certainly passable. She really is striking onstage and a strong competitor overall.
MS-Preliminary SS winner which was well deserved, played Malaguena good enough to keep her in contention, strong in evening gown. She to me is the kind of classic Miss Mississippi who we came to know over the years at MAO who does very well. I will comment more about her a little later.
NH-You want to talk about “total package”-she has it all. She is a beautiful girl, looked great in a swimsuit and evening gown, and has the talent to back that all up. She was my “dark horse” all week until she became a bona fide contender with her talent win last night. More on her later.
NJ-She has been very consistent across the week. She’s another one this week who I can never figure out how she did not win her state, although NJ has become more competitive these last few years. Anyway, she is not the strongest across the board but she is certainly good in all phases of competition and I really could see a top 10 for her.
NY-She absolutely solidified a spot in the top 10 after last night for me. Jordan is well-rounded, very strong in SS and EG and while not over the moon in talent, certainly gave a good performance which played to her strengths. I do not necessarily have her as the next MVA but definitely top 5 and maybe even top 5 if all goes well. I am not sure she has enough of the it factor to win but a good competitor nonetheless.
OK-Strong in talent, preliminary SS winner and top of the group in EG as well. She is another total package, and she also has the face to boot. To me, she is one of the prettiest contestants this year. More on her a little later.
SC-Very strong in EG, strong in SS and held her own in talent. She started off well but like some of the others had trouble in the high range. She is certainly strong enough for a top 10 finish. Also one of the faces of the pageant.
TN-An extremely strong competitor. It is like I said above-if this were another system it would be a crime for her not to win. She needs to RUN to USA after this is over because she has a look that would resonate at Miss Universe.
The rest of the top 15 would come out of:
NE-Much like the others I have mentioned, she has been consistent, and you take notice of her. She had a strong competition in talent, and she looked good in a SS and EG as well. NE is showing signs of life in different pageant systems and I would say the same here. I don’t know that I would put her past the top 15 perhaps or maybe higher than 8th or so but I think a top 15 is warranted.
PA-She was consistent all week, beginning with a very solid piano performance the first night. She may not jump out at you but she does have something that you remember her. I think she has done well enough all week to crack the top 15.
RI-Another strong pianist and she has been good in SS and EG gown as well. She looks nice onstage and has a natural confidence about her. She was consistent across the week and I would not be surprised to see her.
TX-Since she is TX it is almost a shoe-in for her. She is really cute, everything you would expect a Miss TX to be. I am not sure that she has enough of the it factor, but she was good enough in everything to expect to see her. I think she is really cute. I know TX is a tough state to win for many systems but I am glad we got to know her here in Volunteer. I think she would do great in MAO as well.
UT-She’s one where I almost am assured she would get a top 15 spot. She has been consistent across the board all week, very cute, very natural and confident. She has stood out to me all week and I like what she does onstage. She always has a smile on her face and draws you into her.
WA-She is somewhat like UT in that she always tends to be smiling, having fun, and has a spark about her. I am not sure that she was as strong as UT or some of the others across the board but could be in the top 15.
WI-She has something very cute and natural about her, always has a smile on her face. I loved her talent, from the costuming to her performance. She was good in SS and EG. Maybe not at the top of the group, but consistent. There’s a down-to-earth likeability about her that may resonate well with the judges.
Now, where do I think this is headed, and who do I think is going to win?
With any pageant that has preliminary winners, you are going to see a distribution of them across the top 15. Every now and then one does not make it in, it may happen here, who knows? If that is the case it could be HI, it really depends on how she resonates with the judges. Realistically I see GA in the top 10 and nothing more. Even though she’s a good competitor I don’t get a lot of warmth or charisma from her other than she is a strong competitor. Plus, you are going to have some in the top 5 who are non-preliminary winners. It is just the way that pageants go. This year, I am not convinced that it is going to be a non-preliminary winner who wins MVA. The preliminary winners are all strong in their own ways and I do not think any of the non-winners are strong enough to pull off a win. Here are my picks on who it could be, and why.
MS-She is strong enough across the board. She has a lot of presence about her, you really notice her in each and every competition. She makes a case for herself in competition. I think she is the classic old school MAO contestant who did very well under the former system.
NH-She was my dark horse and still kind of is. What she would bring to the title is beauty, class, and she seems like a great young woman. I think she lives up to her name. She reminds me of a Laura Kaeppeler type winner-a bit more reserved but very regal, very poised. If the judges want that kind of winner, Grace would be a perfect choice.
OK-She is also the same. I could describe her as everything that I said about Grace. She has had a great week, always at the top of her categories, and she is also a beauty. She and NE have been some of my favorites this week.
TN-Right now as far as onstage competition, I don’t think anyone beats her. She is probably the strongest across the board. She is a double preliminary winner against some tough competition in each group. I really do think that she would be the obvious winner if there was not a real conflict of interest if she wins. And it would be well-deserved.
But, with all of this, there are variables. We do not know how any of these performed in interview, which is 40 percent of the score. And with not hearing any of the contestants speaking abilities, it is hard to say who has an edge there. And it is also important to note that I could be wrong, but I do not think the MVA system is going to demand an interview queen. I think they are looking for someone who communicates well but I really do not think they are looking for a MAO interview queen. I would hope not. Seeing the preliminary winners this week, they have been judging fairly and getting it right. I do think this panel will give us a great inaugural MVA. So, who do I really think it is going to be?
Based on onstage competition: hands down TN and she would deserve it. I am not going to be disappointed or jaded if she wins. It WILL be deserved. I saw all of the TN Volunteer pageant last June and she was the same way even before her win. She’s a very strong competitor.
Based on beauty and strong performances: NH or OK. They both have the total package as far as I am concerned. I would give a very slight edge to NH of the two, it’s hard to explain. I think NH has a tiny bit more of the it factor but I think OK could also win. They both have the beauty, talent, and everything else to back up the win. I think I fell in love with NH a little more over the week. She has something about her. I also think that she and HI are well-respected with their wins. From what I remember, they seemed to be the only two who hugged each other after winning, although my only slight complaint about the coverage was that once the winners were announced the livestream stalled a bit each night. So, the others might have, I could not tell. I don’t think they did.
Based on a safe, overall choice: MS. She has the classic look and feel of a national winner. She has certainly done enough to win this week. I think her academic credentials are good. She has the look, I think she has the age and maturity to be a good representative. If they are looking for a safe choice, and very credible, she is it.
So, who will it be? We will know in around 5 hours or so. All I know is that I have thoroughly enjoyed this week and believe me, I doubt few people are going to be grumbling about the winner. There were some fine representatives this week who would serve the MVA very well. You will get a combination of beauty and brains. There are no contestants this week who I felt put off by or disliked. It is a great group of young women and I wish them ALL the best tonight!
Look for a live post during the show!
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