|Subject: MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOP 15|
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Date Posted: 15:54:34 09/12/15 Sat
It is not the best weather day in Atlantic City, so everyone is hoping that the rain holds off until after the parade is over. I will be there as long as it is happening. Last year it rained also and I couldn’t see a whole lot, I spent more time inside. But it’s in my opinion some of the best fun of the pageant. Keep your fingers crossed!
I posted last night about what I saw overall from this week and what I thought the trend was. I want to run down what I think about all of the contestants’ chances and make a prediction about the top 15. I am going to run down some of the most noteworthy contestants first, ones that have showed up and ones that were talked about.
AL-From the non-preliminary winners is just about a lock for the top 10 for me. Has been consistent, not excellent, but consistent. Her personality shines through everything she does and I could easily see the judges falling for her.
AK-She was noticed after looking good at the MAOT competition. She commanded my attention as well. Had a decent week, everything about her is decent but I don’t think she will pull through to a top 15 unless she impressed in interview.
AR—I didn’t think she was strong coming into this, but as AR always does, she managed to sneak through the whole week consistent enough to make it in. I would have her out no later than the second round if she makes it in, but I think she squeaks into the top 15.
CA—Of course, it’s CA and everyone is going to notice. Since personalities seem to be rising to the top this week, I don’t have her totally out of this. She has not really stood out in onstage competition save SS and possibly EG. If I were not considering onstage and not personality, I wouldn’t put her in the top 15.
CO—One of this year’s most intriguing contestants. I would say off the bat that she is missing something in competition. You either loved her talent or dismissed it, there was no middle ground. However, she is articulate and compassionate. I see everything from going very far to non-finalist interview. Just based on onstage competition, no. But we didn’t see her interview and I still think that will carry a lot of weight.
DC—One of the most original contestants to ever hit the Miss America stage. And she owns it with confidence. My feeling is that the judges will either love it or hate it. I love originality so I vote yes. But I just don’t know. It will have to be that they love her originality. She was consistent, not overwhelming, but consistent across the week. I don’t know.
FL—Victoria Cowen 2.0. Everything from the preliminary SS win to the strong dancing and lack of a real spark. I would call her a strong competitor, I wouldn’t actually be . surprised if she gets to the top 5 finishing around where Victoria did. I still don’t see her as strong enough to win Miss America unless she lingers around and the panel splits on someone else.
GA—This girl is going to be a star. She just has so much it quality. I say top three for her and I just worry about her speaking skills. It’s not that she is terrible but she has rambled every time I have heard her. That can be fixed after she wins, should she win. But if they want a star who is going to breathe new life into this program, she’s it. I am hoping here. More on her later.
HI—One of pleasant surprises during the week. When I first saw her win her state I thought no way. However, she has really stepped up her game since then. She is also very cute and charming, and I could see that carrying her into the top 15.
ID—As the national Sweetheart going into this, she has not disappointed. She has proven herself worthy of that title. My concern is that she is coming from a very non-traditional state and there is only so much room for them in the top 15. I see this going either way at this point. But she should be proud. And she should pursue something in entertainment with her looks. She is absolutely breathtaking.
IN—She had very enthusiastic fans from the very beginning. I think many of us did not get it. But, she has been very consistent in a week where many have not risen to the occasion. I am going to try and put it best about my impressions of her: she kind of feels like the younger cousin wanting to sit with the big kids. I know that might sound strange, but she has this thing that she’s good, just not quite in the same league. I wouldn’t be shocked to see her in the top 15 but she lacks something that the heavy hitters have.
IA-at this point she has got to be considered one of the frontrunners whether or not you agree with the SS win. More on that later.
KS—A lot of hype and I think she has been consistent sans her speaking skills. I could see maybe if she was later in a group that she would crack the top 15. I wouldn’t be totally surprised but at this point, I think the odds are stacked against her.
KY—Probably the most discussed contestant this year. Sadly, she was just sent too young. I see a lot of personality and had she competed a few more years she could have been Miss America. As it stands now, she just didn’t have any polish or sophistication that some of the seasoned competitors have. The judges in KY took a chance on her and she could have a career in music and she will be known as a former Miss KY. Nothing to sneeze at. Just totally wrong timing for Miss America. I found her nowhere near the level of criticism leveled at her, just not ready for the big league.
LA—Lived up to the hype. Was very consistent all week and we will see her in the top 10.
MA—One of my favorites coming into this year. She has been consistent and I have her in the group that might advance, but there are only so many slots. I would not be surprised either way. She just hasn’t stood out and there are many that are in that group that it is just going to come down what the judges liked. I still think she has her intelligence and maturity going for her, but I don’t see the level of competition there.
MN—I am really hoping she makes the top 15. She has competed very well all week. She is up with ID as far as the most beautiful of this class. I could see her in the top 15 due to her consistency.
MS—She has been consistent enough for the top 15. I would say if she showed more personality or charisma she would be a threat, but I don’t see her as a crown contender. She has been one of the more consistent all week but lacks the it factor. I hate to compare her to Jasmine Murray but she’s not as strong as Jasmine and Jasmine could not crack the top 5.
MO—was popular because of her good looks. Sad to say, she just blends into the
Crowd. I don’t really see a top 15 for her unless interview was outstanding.
MT—Like DC, very much her own person and I absolutely love her. The problem is that she lacked the sophistication in competition to take her into the top 15. I hope I am wrong.
NE—without a doubt the biggest pleasant surprise of the week. She has been not outstanding, but certainly consistent with a good talent. I wouldn’t be surprised either way if she makes it or not, but she is a strong possibility. Since 2007, NE has had a preliminary SS winner, top 10, prelim talent and Miss America and a NFT winner. Slowly but surely they are starting to figure it out. We have to take Nebraska seriously. Even if Alyssa does not make the top 15 she did everything right this week and should feel proud of herself.
NV—Has had a decent week and I think she isn’t quite strong enough to make it in the top 15, but should be proud of herself.
NJ—has certainly got a lot of attention, won QOL and has a strong personality. I always felt like she lacked a certain maturity or sophistication when she won Miss NJ and I didn’t see that going away. Despite the great costume her talent is entertaining but very amateur. Talent doesn’t matter much, it will come down to how the judges like her. I don’t see her completely out of this but I think the personality would get her Miss Congeniality rather than a top 15.
NY—has to be one of the most high profile contestants this year with good reason. She has risen to the occasion, very consistent throughout the competition. I am not counting her out at all. I still think in addition to being strong onstage she has the compassion and ability to work with children that a Miss America should. I think that will show very clearly to the judges.
NC—A favorite of those who saw her compete. NC always has strong support for their contestants. I don’t see it competition wise for Kate this year. It would all have to come down to personality, which she does have. But even onstage, she doesn’t seem comfortable.
OK—The preliminary streak is over. I could have made a very strong argument for SS in alpha for her but that’s a whole different story. She has been consistent and common sense says this is OK, she gets in. I would say she does, but is nowhere near the level of Betty/Alicia/Kelsey. I don’t see her in the top 5 and may not even make it to the top 10. You can’t ever count out Oklahoma. However, every state has a year off. I wouldn’t be surprised either way.
RI—She has been average in each competition, I didn’t have her as standing out in anything. However, I would say the same thing about IA except for talent and it’s working for her. Alexandra is very smart and very pretty and I still think it could resonate with the judges. Initially, I had written her off based on onstage competition but after Thursday I think the judges are thinking a bit more open-minded than I thought. I could see this going either way.
SC—Was a frontrunner for me the minute she was crowned and has risen to the occasion every day this week. More on that later.
TN—has been very consistent all week. Let’s put it this way—if Grace/Ellen/Stefanie/Erin/Chandler/Hayley made it in, so does Hannah. I am pretty sure she’s a lock for the top 15.
TX—I think like most people, I dismissed her immediately after Miss TX. However, she upped her game and while I don’t see her going far, I could see her cracking the top 15. Believe me, there are plenty of contestants I’d rather see more but she managed to up the ante. If she does make it in she would be one of the ones that are out first round or two.
UT—very strong all week, easily in the top 3 in each onstage competition each night save EG.
VT—On paper, she looked like the best chance VT has had in years. Very sadly, she’s just not rising to the occasion. She is so naturally fresh, unique and very appealing. But she just doesn’t know. She has so little confidence, and it’s sad to me. I want to get up and scream, “Girl, you’re at Miss America! Be proud of yourself!” Had she been more confident I would have loved to see her in the top 15. I think this is why it took her so long to win Miss VT.
VA—She is really on the fence for me. A bit unpolished but her talent was really outstanding. This is a state that gets it done time and time again. I don’t think she would make it that far but she’s not out of this by any means.
WA—I know she commanded some attention when she won. She’s definitely a likeable girl, and a very good speaker. I could see her sneaking in if the judges liked her. Just based on onstage, no. But she’s definitely a strong interview.
WV—Not totally a surprise because I think people recognized her potential when she was crowned. She has brought it to the table in every single category, especially talent. She seems like a sweet, likeable girl and I think she could do very well.
WI—A favorite of many since she was crowned including myself. She has been “okay”, not outstanding. I could see the judges liking her in interview. However, competition wise, I think she lacks the “go out and kill” instinct that prevents her from being a contender. I wish she had it, I think she’d be a great Miss America.
Now, down to who I feel are the real contenders, with their strengths and weaknesses:
IA—I wasn’t sure she was even in the top 15 before the SS win. I am still not sure if she is Miss America, especially with another panel. Clearly she captured this panel. I didn’t get it until I saw her swimsuit win video. She is likeable, humble, real, and spirited. She is much like Mallory in that respect. My big question is whether she resonates with the second panel. My guess is maybe, maybe not. There are a lot of compassionate women on tomorrow’s panel and may like her realness. But she still does not have the “it” factor. Even Teresa had that. However, the judges this week clearly saw something and it has to be taken into consideration.
GA—She is just a star, plain and simple. She is very pretty, would look excellent on the red carpet and can sing beautifully. She was very strong in swimsuit and would have easily cleaned up at a state competition. My big issue is interview. If this were even 25 years ago she would be the clear winner. But it’s not and I am concerned that interview will be the thing that sinks her.
SC—From the minute I saw her speak I considered her the winner this year. She is very convincing, very confident and very articulate. If her final question were to be about the Confederate flag she’s sailing to victory. Her talent is average and that is her weakest category. However, she’s not bad in any way. Much worse has won. She also looks great singing, and that helps. My big issue with her is twofold: first, she had the speaking skills for the past several years. Why didn’t she win SC? It wasn’t as if she was competing in NY. If she couldn’t beat the caliber of contestants that SC sent the past two years, is that still missing? Everything I have seen this week says no, but there is still that doubt for me. The other part, and this is the bigger concern: I don’t get a sense of who she is. She is a strong competitor, but I have no idea of who she is personally and what she stands for. That is my only real drawback with her. In the sense of some of the others this year, SC is the strong candidate. But I just don’t get a lot other than that. I know exactly who IA is, and the other two I am going to mention. But I know very little about Daja other than she is good. Compared to the other sigma SS winner Ali Rogers, even with her you knew she worked with kids and had a sense of who she was.
AL—She has more of a personality than IA with no preliminary awards to show for it. I really think on different levels she will resonate with all of the final night judges. She is just like Mallory and Kira in the respect that whatever she does onstage she brings to life.
NY—I said right off the bat that they could be 4 in a row and they very well could. Jamie Lynn has been very consistent across the week and she reminds me not exactly, but she does remind of Ashley Judd in looks. In addition to being strong onstage, I think she is a compassionate young woman who would be excellent with children. I would be very happy if she won.
So, how do I think it all goes down?
I think that it will be down to GA and SC. I think that GA will dazzle all night and fall short in interview. I think SC will have strong onstage presence and will have a better interview and can “sell” herself better, if that is possible. I think it will be a close finish regardless of who finishes. Now, this is common sense and everything that worked in the past. The only thing I think GA has on her side is a second panel and the fact that she is extremely strong onstage. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she won and I will be thrilled. It’s just about interview these days. Maybe Betty went in and killed in interview, but everything I have seen so far she just rambles.
As far as the rest of the top 15:
The following for all intents and purposes are out, IMO:
CT, DE, IL, KY, ME, NH, NM, NC, ND, OH, PA, SD, VT, WY
The following I don’t suspect we will see, but would not be totally out of the question:
AK, AZ, CA, KS, MD, MI, MO, MT, NV, NJ, OR, PR
The following are ones that I see going either way. I would not be surprised either way to see them or not see them:
CO, DC, HI, ID, IN, MA, NE, OK, RI, TX, VA, WA, WI
The following I see as very good chances of making it into the top 15:
AR, MN, MS, WV
The following are all but a lock for me for top 15:
AL, FL, GA, IA, LA, NY, SC, TN, UT
And there, my friends, you have it! We will see how right or wrong I am. Last year I called the winner as either NY or AL. The year before I called it for OK and NY won. Mallory’s year I initially called it for FL and then changed to AL and NY won. In 2012 I called it for NY and WI won. In 2011 I called it for HI and NE won. In 2010 I didn’t call it for anyone, I couldn’t figure that one out. In 2009 I called it for IN and was correct. In 2008 I called it for WA and MI won. So, if my statistics are on point, I congratulate SC on her second runner-up finish lol.
So, what say you? Am I right, wrong, delusional, or should I get a job as a psychic? LOL it is probably somewhere in the middle.
[ Post a Reply to This Message ]
- Psychic, articulate and right on! -- No name, 18:13:42 09/12/15 Sat
- Two things jump out at me in this - based on your comments during the week, why on earth would AR have a very good chance at the 15? And, on what planet would Miss TX ever beat CA, MD, KS? TX showed up with a nice ss, but that's pretty much it. She reportedly has a strong interview, but I think that's negated by the lame talent and looks. She ain't pretty enough. Would love to hear more comments on AR and TX, because I'm just not seeing anything for them (except maybe NFI for TX). (NT) -- No name, 22:05:59 09/12/15 Sat
- Whould love to see Hawaii make the cut. (NT) -- Hopeful, 22:47:08 09/12/15 Sat
- Re: MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOP 15 -- No name, 01:21:51 09/13/15 Sun
- I have to disagree with you about MS and your comparison between Jasmine Murray and Hannah Roberts. While Jasmine was an excellent candidate, Hannah is stronger overall. Jasmine had an extremely weak interview while Hannah has a very strong interview. They are both beautiful and talented, just in different ways. I see Hannah as the stronger overall candidate. Will she win? Who knows. (NT) -- No name, 15:15:45 09/13/15 Sun
- I cant wait to see the surprises in the top 15. Both the ones that got in and the ones that miss the cut. (NT) -- No name, 15:46:20 09/13/15 Sun