| Subject: I also forgot to mention: I think like most years, the states with the best chance to make it in are the regulars. I suspect that a lot of the top 10 will be ones we have seen before with 1 or 2 like Alaska mixed in. But I do think traditional will rule the year. |
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Date Posted: 17:03:27 12/16/21 Thu
In reply to:
Owner/Moderator
's message, "MY PREDICTIONS" on 16:49:32 12/16/21 Thu
>Hi everyone!
>
>I just want you to know that I started writing this
>before I saw anything about the changes to the way the
>top 10 is announced. I was into it pretty far and
>decided not to go back. Some of these are likely not
>going to make it in. But I went with what I had seen
>this week:
>
>Some years, it is easy to pick out the winner, even
>from their state wins. In the last dozen years or so
>there were many of us, including me, who took one look
>at Katie Stam after she won her state and said that
>she was Miss America. I knew it with Kira, believe it
>or not. And I knew as soon as Savvy Shields won her
>state title that she was going to win. Sometimes you
>just know. This year, I would say I *think* I know
>but none of us really do. And I didn’t really pick
>her after her state win, but I wasn’t closely paying
>attention at the time.
>
>This year is also tough, because there is only a top
>10. In any given year, it is easy to pick the top 15.
> The top 15 format has been pretty much the regular
>since the 2001 pageant. Actually, the 2001 pageant
>featured a top 20. The 2004 pageant, as well as the
>2006 and 2007 had only a top 10. Other than that, all
>of the other pageants had a top 15. There are always
>a log jam of contestants for me around the top 15 that
>would have to go either way to make it in. This year
>will be no different, and it is going to be very hard
>to pick. But, I am going to give it a go. This is
>based on everything I have seen in preliminaries.
>
>This first group is my longshot group. Even though
>they are not traditionally favored, I would not be
>surprised to see any of these in.
>Hawaii-She is the type of contestant the judges could
>really fall in love with. She is just so warm,
>engaging, and has a charisma that few others have
>shown this week. Hawaii was just in the top 15 with
>Nikki Holbrook, and they have done well over the past
>20 years in general. If the judges were as charmed as
>her as I seemed to be, I think you could see her in
>the top 10.
>North Dakota-She has been having a very good week.
>She is extremely well spoken and naturally confident.
>Everything she did she had a smile on her face and
>seemed very at ease with herself. After their win a
>few years ago, ND would have to have learned how to be
>successful at Miss America. I could see this happening
>for her.
>West Virginia-She was one who was probably my most
>pleasant surprise this year. Out of all the
>contestants, she has a very natural, down-to-earth
>quality about her that draws you to her. I think she
>would be someone who could really connect with the
>judges as she did with the audience. She is warm,
>seems very compassionate and relatable.
>
>This next group is my I wouldn’t be surprised either
>way group. If they make the top 10 I will not be at
>all surprised. If not, I think it may have been close
>for them and they had a good week.
>GA-I think others outperformed her, but she does have
>some confidence about her. I am basing this more on
>her state reputation rather than her actual
>competition this week, but you just never know.
>IN-She had one of the better talents in night 1,
>though not anything that memorable. I still never
>heard her first answer but in the second one, she
>sounded very well-prepared, intelligent, and
>compassionate.
>MD-She didn’t necessarily “stand out” all week,
>but she has a lot of academic credentials that are
>impressive, she is highly intelligent and a good
>performer.
>MN-I am leaning against her at this moment, BUT she
>has an incredible personal story. They still do count
>for something, and you kind of want her to succeed.
>Plus, it is a very timely message about surviving
>COVID. I am not sure she quite had enough competition
>wise to get her there, but on a personal level, what a
>great young woman.
>MO-I think she had a “good” week, not exceptional.
> But she was consistent enough and her state knows how
>to get things done right now.
>OR-Like some of the aforementioned, she has had a
>“good” week. I think she has a unique quality
>about her, I liked that she did Alicia Keys instead of
>an old pageant song, and she seems intelligent.
>SC-She was very strong in talent, that is why I am
>considering her. Plus, her state has a great
>reputation and really knows how to prepare their
>contestants.
>
>The next group was strong enough to me and I could
>easily see them making the top 10 but am not certain.
>It will just depend how they connected with the judges:
>DC-She is easily the resume queen of the pageant. 2
>Master’s Degrees, I do not think active military but
>may be employed by a contractor or something similar.
>If this were DC USA I would say she is a lock for the
>crown because they have an amazing program. If this
>were the pageant of the early 00s where academic
>credentials were a good indicator of how you would
>place, I would absolutely have her in the top 10.
>Now, I am not sure. I thought she did well the first
>night, spoke well and I did notice her in gown as much
>as one can. Her talent was certainly sold enough to
>propel her if everything else works for her.
>FL-She had a good week competition wise. She is a
>good dancer, probably one of the better ones in night
>2. She seemed very confident as well. And the state
>has a great track record.
>IA-She has been of the “sleepers” this week-I
>don’t think there was a lot of hype coming into the
>pageant about her. But, she has been consistent
>across the board and I think being underestimated.
>She does everything with a smile and natural
>confidence.
>NJ-She is a reporter and should have a good interview
>just based on that alone. She did very good on her
>onstage question and her talent is solid.
>TN-The talent is BAD there is no way around that. But
>she is a fantastic speaker. If she was as convincing
>in interview as she was onstage, I see her in the top
>10. LOL and everyone will be complaining about her
>talent for years to come. I just am not counting her
>out just yet.
>UT-I am still very iffy on her. Her talent was pretty
>bad. But, she was such a good speaker otherwise, and
>she does have a commanding presence.
>
>The following I have either firmly or just about in my
>top 10:
>AL-She had a good week and is very confident. A bit
>overconfident, it comes off a bit much at times. But,
>she is a good, confident communicator. Her talent is
>the kind which has been doing well at Miss America
>lately-entertaining. I think she did enough all week,
>plus one of the best programs in the whole MAO.
>She’s ready to go.
>AK-Her preliminary SII win plus a stronger talent
>performance has her in the top 10 for me. She is
>refreshing, there is just not another word for it.
>She is so humble and sweet, and she’s definitely
>someone you would want to get to know. I still
>maintain that her reaction to winning the preliminary
>was the best reaction I had ever seen in my many years
>of pageantry. I would LOVE a Miss America like this.
>CA-She has been very consistent all week. Stronger in
>talent, strong in communication. This is a state with
>a great reputation at Miss America as well. She has
>grown a lot from when I first saw her compete, and I
>think she could even be top 5 depending on how she
>presents herself.
>IL-with her talent win and the fact that she is a
>reporter, she is solidly in my top 10. Perhaps even
>top 5. The only wild card with her is that she seemed
>to mess up her OSQ on night 1 but that can easily be
>forgotten come final night.
>MA-She has been, IMO, the most consistent behind CA
>out of the non-preliminary winners. She seems modern,
>intelligent, comes from Boston College, and she has a
>lot to like about her.
>NE-She really has stood out to me all week, along with
>CA and MA among the non-winners. Very pretty dancer,
>strong communicator and she has a natural confidence
>onstage. This state is becoming a must consider each
>year, and I am considering her. I think she could do
>very well.
>NY-Preliminary talent win, lots of personality, and
>she has a commanding stage presence. Plus coming from
>arguably the best state program right now. She’s
>going far.
>TX-Truthfully, I don’t want her in the top 10 this
>year, I think there are some who are more deserving.
>If there was a top 15 I would be fine with her there.
>But with her win and the fact that she is Miss TX, she
>is going to be in the top 10.
>
>I think the remaining 2 will come from this group:
>MI-She was without a doubt one of the stronger talent
>performances all week. She is cute, natural, and
>likeable. I think she has done well enough that we
>see her in the top 10.
>MS-She is a Miss Mississippi of old-classic,
>well-prepared. I think she was strong enough across
>the board to make it into the top 10. I don’t think
>she is an actual contender or would make it into the
>top 5 if she did, but I think her overall performance
>plus her state record could put her into the top 10.
>OK-This is Oklahoma after all and we usually see them.
> She is a good communicator-she is very effective plus
>very humanistic and real. I liked the originality of
>her talent, even though there were some off notes at
>the end. With the way Oklahoma is and Ashleigh’s
>natural likeability, I think she is a safe choice.
>PA-Good in talent, very good communicator. She seems
>very natural and didn’t seem like she was trying to
>over impress. She was probably in the better talents
>of her group and one of the best speakers night 2. I
>think she has made a strong case for herself.
>WI-She has also been very consistent across the week.
>There’s something that I can’t quite describe with
>her, but she does have something which draws you into
>her. Wisconsin is a state where if they have someone
>who is good, you will see them make the cut. This
>year is no different.
>
>Now, who do I think will win?
>Hold onto your hats-I think it’s going to be New
>York again. I am sure there will be complaining about
>it, but I think she’s your winner. First, she is
>the only one this week who really seems to show that
>she wants this. This is not an affront to the other
>contestants who have been doing their best, but Sydney
>really is showing that she is there for you to notice
>her, she is confident, and she has clearly showed up
>to win. Mallory, Nina and Kira were all there to win.
>Sydney has this same quality. Nia didn’t quite have
>that quality-she coasted through all week and turned
>up the dial when she needed to on final night. That
>could easily happen again with someone we are not
>paying attention to. Who knows? But again, when Miss
>NY’s come to win, they win. Even Camille Simms was
>2nd runner-up in 2016 between all this and she came to
>win as well. You cannot argue with the success of
>this program right now and the women in it. Now, a
>case against her: part of her platform deals with
>inclusion for transgender students in sports.
>Apparently some people hated her talent and saw her as
>an angry feminist. So, she is going to come with some
>controversy. I think Debbye and Heather would at
>least be mature enough not to let that influence them.
> But I don’t know. I would say Mrs. Krebs has more
>of a say in all of this as well. Just today, it was
>announced that her governor, Kristi Noem, wants to ban
>transgender athletes in high school sports. It is the
>very same thing Sydney is advocating for. I am not
>saying that Shantel and the governor are the same but
>these days pretty much everyone follows their own
>political party. I would argue that Utah might have a
>tougher time with her platform considering how
>explosive immigration is in the United States. But
>she is not quite at the level Sydney is.
>I think if Sydney wins it would open a LOT of doors
>despite the controversy. We are off of network,
>possibly for good. We MUST show the public that Miss
>America is still relevant. In my opinion, Sydney
>embodies all of these things. She would be noticed.
>She may bring in groups that have felt alienated.
>Whether or not that happens, it is anyone’s guess.
>At the end of the day, this is a hard one to call,
>harder than most years. Sydney is the only one for me
>who really stood out and is on a different level. I
>think there are some other fine choices like Alaska,
>and I would be thrilled if she won. I just think the
>organization has a chance to at least redeem itself
>with an incredible winner who would get attention and
>has the competitive goods to back it up. And it would
>get conversation going. We need some publicity.
>
>We will see in around 5 hours! I will have a live
>post going.
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