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Even though I feel completely out of the loop this year, I am still excited. And feel completely out of the loop I do. It's hard to tell what is going to happen. So, I've been relying on what I have been reading from others. Believe me, it's valuable! One thing that I have found over time is that the contestants who are consistently on most people's radar are the ones to keep an eye on.
From the summer crownings, I do remember that there was excitement around FL winning, as well as a lot of good stuff about IL and lots of excitement around TX. In the early days of message boards, hype was sometimes so heavy that you would sometimes see 3 posts an hour hyping certain contestants. The last time it was at a very intense level was back in 2014, Kira's year. Miss AL was former MAO teen winner Caitlin Brunnell and Miss MS was Jasmine Murray who made the top 16 on American Idol. Each of their camps were convinced they were going to win. Both of them made the top 10. Usually most of the hyped contestants end up doing well. There were some notable exceptions. You gotta remember I am in the old crowd-back in 2000 Miss IA Teresa Uchtil was believed by fans to be a frontrunner, as well as Miss IL Jenny Powell. Neither made the top 10.
The hype is nowhere near that level anymore. But there does seem to be some hype, and TX seemed to get a lot of it pre-pageant. I understand she is the daughter of Arian Archer. Talent not withstanding, she was a great back in the day Miss TX. I liked her when she competed. TX reminds me in looks of her mother except for darker hair. A lot of viewers seemed to think she could finally bring Miss America back to TX. I haven't seen her compete, so I can't say. It seems like a lot of the hype has faded during competition week. I still think she will make the top 10. She is TX, after all.
FL-especially with a preliminary win, and the stellar run at Miss America, I know she'll be in the top 10. The general consensus was that her talent was weaker.
IL-IL has had not a NY or OK type success, but they've been showing up the past few years, anyway. I know there was a lot of positive talk about her, and people thought she was a strong contestant. Her EG win will definitely help her chances.
NY-I did see her at Miss Volunteer America. She won preliminary talent, was in the top 10 or 4th ru (I can't remember) . She does have a great Broadway voice. I am sure we will see her on the Great White Way someday. Talent is definitely her strong suit. I think she is strong for the top 10, possibly a lower top 5. She's one where I do not think the title of Miss America will open doors for her, she'll open them on her own.
MD-I see her popping up. She certainly is a beauty, and she seems quite accomplished. Talent reviews seem to be glowing or terrible. She's another one where I do not think she needs the title. If she's the best all-around, I hope she becomes Miss America. My concern is that in our current climate that she will not.
AL-When I first saw her state win, I thought maybe AL would back-to-back. I haven't heard much about her all week. So, it's hard to say. The state does get it done again and again and again. I expect her to be there shining.
OH-Seems to be getting some buzz again this year. I can't keep up with leadership comings and goings, but it seemed like one happened in the last few years. They are doing very well. I suspect with that growth they can build on the success of the past couple years. We might see her. I haven't seen her compete though, so I can't say.
The other preliminary winners
AR-She is reported to have a strong talent plus a win. I don't see a scenario where AR with a preliminary win misses the top 10.
UT-They always send good talent to Miss America and have done well in the preliminaries because of it.
CO-This did not seem like a popular win. I do not know much about her, and I do not even see a picture of her. If she didn't stand out in other phases, it's hard to see her in the top 10.
TN-She's one that I wouldn't be surprised to see in the top 10. After last year's success they are ready to do it again. I heard her talent wasn't that strong but as long as it is passable she should be okay. I looked at some of her pictures, she's very tall and striking.
DC-Despite her win, it doesn't seem like viewers thought she has a lot of other consistency to make it into the top 10. I think she might be one of the ones to miss.
Talent to win has to be passable to good. Grace had strong talent, Madison-I know some people hate HERStory but she did it well, with sound and made it a whole experience, it was certainly justifiable, Abbie's talent was pretty and certainly good enough to win. Emma's was good enough to win, Camille won preliminary talent, etc. You're going to have to have good enough talent to win. It really does not seem like fitness is really much of a priority or determining factor in winning. Of course, it disappeared totally for a few years and now is only back because of a major sponsor. I still think it is not much of a huge factor.
Usually at Miss America in any given year, you have around 5-7 regulars that you see. They come from: AL, AR, CA, FL, GA, LA, KY, MS, NY, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX, and VA. Then there are the states that have stretches of success and droughts but if they send someone good they're going to make the top 10. You usually see 2-3 of those. They are: HI, IL, IN, KS, MD, MA, MI, NJ, OR (we do have an OR fan this year who predicted they'd win), PA, UT, WA and WI. There are other states where they are not irregular, you do not see them a whole lot. You usually see 1 of these a year. They are AZ, CO, CT, IA, MN, MO, NE, NV, OH, and RI. The others from the remaining states just do not place that much, and you usually have one of those in the top 10.
Tonight I expect the usuals to be at least half of the top 10, particularly FL, NY, AR, AL, and TX. I think we might see IL, TN, and the rest I just do not known enough about to say. I have seen some constancy in that the viewers do not think that the traditional states are strong this year, so we might see some exclusions. Overall, from what I have been reading, it doesn't seem like this class is as strong as some of the others. So, I think a surprise could be in order.
I really do not have any idea who will win, but I think maybe AR with a strong talent or maybe IL (just a feeling.) I do not think NY will win, she's fantastic at talent but a little average in other categories. Although she may have picked it up a bit since VOL.
Now, I gotta shut my computer down and give it a break because it's going really slow, getting warm, and I need it for tonight. But I'll pop back to hear from YOU! What are your thoughts going into tonight?
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[> Subject: I think OR succumbed to nerves (she was a total newbie) and I did not consider that.
[> [> Subject: Oh goodness, so sorry I did not see this earlier. Yes, it can happen. I have heard stories, realistic ones, of what happens when you get to Miss America. Nerves get the better of you, you're not sleeping, you are away from your support people, it can all add up. Unfortunately, we didn't get to see much of the non-finalists but she seemed very lovely. I hope she's enjoying her time as Miss OR.
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