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Date Posted: 06:09:08 02/03/00 Thu
Author: Anonymous
Subject: Use probability statistics to see WHY, WHY, WHY we can't get good people
In reply to: 's message, "Re: AIR NIUGINI MANAGEMENT IS A DISGRACE" on 07:21:03 02/02/00 Wed

May I give my viewpoint?

In the rest of the world, when you want a ocrporate manager of a major airline, you do a big search for the right person, sometimes an international search. You pick from a pool of job applicants that may number in the hundreds, each one of them professionally armed with the skills needed. But we all know that it takes more than a degree to apply one's skills in an effective way. Some people have it, some don't. You look for the 1 in 100, or maybe 1 in 1000 and you give them the job. You don't give the job to #2.

For Air Niugini, what is the size of our qualified pool of applicants? It can't be more than a few dozen at most. Anyone who has taken statistics knows that when you have a small pool, you're far less likely to get that outlier person - the really unusual, exceptionally qualified person.

The USA, with its 300 million or so population will be most likely to produce the best candidates on the basis of probability alone, compared to a certain country we know whose population is only about 5 million. On probabilty alone. Don't even consider the different levels of education.

But after considering the statistical probability of getting an excellent general manager, look at the differential education and experience levels.

Just think. When the 1.2 billion Chinese get really educated they're going to wipe all of today's developed countries right off the map. The next Bill Gate's and other wonder wizard brains are most likely to come from China or India, not the small population countries.

An analysis based on the use of probability statistics alone.

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